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PB: 2017 Tourney Journey - On Understanding Depth

PB: 2017 Tourney Journey - On Understanding Depth
BWatson1855
Joined: 11/18/2015
Posts: 34
Practice Squad
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Hi Dave,

By all advanced metrics/power ratings I see Providence rating higher than USC. Since January 25, USC's only wins have come against Washington, Washington State, and Oregon State (the three weakest teams in the PAC 12). Despite this USC is a 2.5 favorite. Just a guess, but I imagine the markets see USC's size advantage as a matchup problem for Providence. That said, do you see any value on the Friars here?

Thanks!

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12240
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

BWatson1855

By all advanced metrics/power ratings I see Providence rating higher than USC. Since January 25, USC's only wins have come against Washington, Washington State, and Oregon State (the three weakest teams in the PAC 12). Despite this USC is a 2.5 favorite. Just a guess, but I imagine the markets see USC's size advantage as a matchup problem for Providence. That said, do you see any value on the Friars here?

Some of the issues that the metric have with Providence is I believe the Big East being over-rated in general right now, those ratings being boosted by Creighton games with Maurice Watson and Xavier with Emond Sumner. But the Blue Jays went 8-9 after Watson went down, and the Musketeers are just 3-7 over their L10 games, 2 of those wins over DePaul. But so many math models don't factor the injuries, hence both are rated better than they really are, and that lifts the rest of the conference in terms of strength of schedule.

I don't see much from the Providence resume, the only non-conference win over a tourney team being a 63-60 grinder at home vs. Rhode Island. They got waxed by 26 at Xavier and by 14 at home vs. Creighton when both of those teams were healthy, then won the rematches against the shortened rosters, before bowing out vs. the Blue Jays in the rubber match at MSG in the tourney. Ed Cooley is one of my favorite coaches in any sport, but I don't think al that much of his team, and played some USC at the opener of pick'em. Keep in mind that a big part of the lack of Trojan wins down the stretch is playing UCLA/Oregon/Arizona 6 times over the last 14 games, and that does mean much tougher recent competition than what the Friars faced.

sallymott
Joined: 10/06/2012
Posts: 286
Jr. College
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Dave,

I am a little confused with the Fresno St +10.5 at TCU?  Is there a Bull Dog injury or something else or am i just in left field again!!

thanks

sally

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12240
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

sallymott

I am a little confused with the Fresno St +10.5 at TCU?  Is there a Bull Dog injury or something else or am i just in left field again!!

thanks

sally

That is pretty close to where most of the math models put it, plus the notions of Big 12 vs. MWC. But our troubled local conference made a decent showing last night, and the Bulldogs style makes them a tough out. I do get chimes at +11 for that one.

sallymott
Joined: 10/06/2012
Posts: 286
Jr. College
Not Ranked

David Malinsky

sallymott

I am a little confused with the Fresno St +10.5 at TCU?  Is there a Bull Dog injury or something else or am i just in left field again!!

thanks

sally

That is pretty close to where most of the math models put it, plus the notions of Big 12 vs. MWC. But our troubled local conference made a decent showing last night, and the Bulldogs style makes them a tough out. I do get chimes at +11 for that one.

thanks

good luck tonight everyone

sportsinvestingtoday
Joined: 10/25/2014
Posts: 1128
Professional
Not Ranked

Hi David,

not a play I am strong play, but perhaps for a pizza-size bet.  I believe there could be value tonight on UC Davis +3.5 vs. NC Central, for a number of reasons:

1. Coaching: UC Davis coach Jim Les has been before – both as a coach and player. He played with Bradley in the 1986 NCAA Tournament, where the Braves reached the second round. As coach at Bradley, Les led the Braves to the Sweet 16 in 2006.

2. Clutch time: If UC Davis has an advantage, it’s knowing the team can make big plays in big games. The Aggies had to overcome late-game deficits to beat Cal State Fullerton in the Big West semifinals and UC Irvine in the championship game. Meanwhile, the Eagles blew away their opponents in the MAEC tournament title, winning three games by an average of 24 points.

3. Familiarity -  NCCU replicates UCI's defense, in which will help the UC Davis prepare.  UC Davis beat UCI 2 out of 3 times.  It is interesting to note that UCI lost by single digits(6-7 points) to 3 Tourney teams -Nevada by 7, New Mexico State by 6, and East Tennessee State by 6

4.  Public Perception - NCCU  went 6-0 ATS in its limited amount of games on the betting boards.  Public will jump on that creating value.

At this price, I believe there is value here on UC Davis +3.5, interested to get your thoughts?

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12240
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

sportsinvestingtoday

not a play I am strong play, but perhaps for a pizza-size bet.  I believe there could be value tonight on UC Davis +3.5 vs. NC Central, for a number of reasons:

1. Coaching: UC Davis coach Jim Les has been before – both as a coach and player. He played with Bradley in the 1986 NCAA Tournament, where the Braves reached the second round. As coach at Bradley, Les led the Braves to the Sweet 16 in 2006.

2. Clutch time: If UC Davis has an advantage, it’s knowing the team can make big plays in big games. The Aggies had to overcome late-game deficits to beat Cal State Fullerton in the Big West semifinals and UC Irvine in the championship game. Meanwhile, the Eagles blew away their opponents in the MAEC tournament title, winning three games by an average of 24 points.

3. Familiarity -  NCCU replicates UCI's defense, in which will help the UC Davis prepare.  UC Davis beat UCI 2 out of 3 times.  It is interesting to note that UCI lost by single digits(6-7 points) to 3 Tourney teams -Nevada by 7, New Mexico State by 6, and East Tennessee State by 6

4.  Public Perception - NCCU  went 6-0 ATS in its limited amount of games on the betting boards.  Public will jump on that creating value.

At this price, I believe there is value here on UC Davis +3.5, interested to get your thoughts?

When that one tips off this evening it will be the first time I have done any charting at all of either team. So I will watch to learn a little for Friday (though I doubt the details will matter all that much), but will not be doing any pre-capping of that game.

sportsinvestingtoday
Joined: 10/25/2014
Posts: 1128
Professional
Not Ranked

Hi David,

Interesting to note the Providence money that is entering the market here, USC now available at -1.5 in some spots, -2 everywhere. Is PK your 'go' price on USC?

Jaycee5353
Joined: 10/07/2015
Posts: 35
Practice Squad
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First round pick in survivor type pool looking at Purdue Baylor or Ky. Any suggestions.

BOARDMAN
Joined: 07/10/2016
Posts: 202
College Recruit
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Bring what ? I saw this bunch live last evening sitting directly behind the Piston bench and  they will see none  my paper for the rest of this season . And for this bunch to surpass 98 points ??? I will be shocked unless Utah blows them out of the building and loses all interest .

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