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PB: On the Grizzlies bringing blues to Beale Street

PB: On the Grizzlies bringing blues to Beale Street
David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12565
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trapslap

Do the bucks ring any bells today with +4 currently being offered or is this a wait and see approach with Fizdale? I don't exactly trust Kidd with his rotations either...

For most of the season consistency had not been a Bucks virtue, but if we go back to February 13, when Kris Middleton returned for real (they went 0-2 his first two games back, before he sat out a game and then made a more proper return), they have gone 9-2 SU, and have moved into temporary possession of the #8 seed in the Eastern Conference, and just 1.5 games out of the #6. With Malcom Brodgon also returning tonight there is nothing wrong with biting off a full +4, in particular with the big gap in defensive measurements between these teams in recent games.

BWatson1855
Joined: 11/18/2015
Posts: 34
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Hi Dave,

Sorry to go completely off topic today, but something I have been following closely during spring training is the performance of Zack Greinke, specifically his declining velocity. He made a minor league start today and topped at 91 mph in the first inning but didn't crack 90 after the second inning. This follows a start from last Wednesday in which he never hit 90 mph on the gun. Might there be some opportunities early in the season to go against him? Something to file away.

(Unrelated for wagering purposes, the Diamondbacks are on the hook for $34.5 million per season through 2021 with Greinke).

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12565
Rank NA
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BWatson1855

Sorry to go completely off topic today, but something I have been following closely during spring training is the performance of Zack Greinke, specifically his declining velocity. He made a minor league start today and topped at 91 mph in the first inning but didn't crack 90 after the second inning. This follows a start from last Wednesday in which he never hit 90 mph on the gun. Might there be some opportunities early in the season to go against him? Something to file away.

(Unrelated for wagering purposes, the Diamondbacks are on the hook for $34.5 million per season through 2021 with Greinke).

Anything bettable/beatable is on topic here. Now let's see if Greinke is just slowly tuning himself up, or if there is a real problem. Unfortunately the Fantasy crowd is also going to be following this closely, and if he is going for cheap prices in the pre-season drafts, that will find its way into the traditional betting marketplace as well.

coreyinsocal
Joined: 11/02/2010
Posts: 1447
Professional
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Dave,

Did you have an insight on the reason for the preponderance of moves at the opening totals towards the over in ncaa baskets? Is that just someone trying to get ahead of the square "over" money?

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12565
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coreyinsocal

Did you have an insight on the reason for the preponderance of moves at the opening totals towards the over in ncaa baskets? Is that just someone trying to get ahead of the square "over" money?

In terms of the NCAA tourney I have only seen moderate movement on the totals from the P{inn openers, which is when I begin tracking, but I do know some folks that are taking early leads at whatever they can get for the NIT, because of their interpretation of the new rules that will be in play. I will bring them in as one of the lead topics tomorrow, although some elements will be a mixed bag in terms of scoring flows. There will be no 1-and-1 FT opportunities, but are there going to be more FT attempts or fewer under the new format (the games will broken into quarters, but not stopped at those intervals - you get 4 fouls for the first 10:00 before the opponent goes into the bonus, but at 10:00 the foul counts get wiped clean).
coreyinsocal
Joined: 11/02/2010
Posts: 1447
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Sorry, I should have been more specific. I meant the CRIS opening totals. I see 2-5 pts moves.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12565
Rank NA
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coreyinsocal

Sorry, I should have been more specific. I meant the CRIS opening totals. I see 2-5 pts moves.

Those I could not help with - one the the things that allows me to maintain whatever limited resources of sanity I do have is to not look at some aspects of the markets until either multiple big shops are up, or whenever Pinnacle let's the larger limits come in. That way I do not get overly influenced by numbers that are out there that I can't really bet into. By tracking the openers from Pinnacle I also believes it gives me a better feel for markets behaviors as the day processes, as opposed to some of the early shops, who can have big movement because the limits are kept low.

dseyde
Joined: 09/25/2016
Posts: 14
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Hi Dave with the injury of Chris Boucher for Oregon do you see this as a significant blow for a potential deep tourney run for Oregon. They did only lose by 3 to Arizona without him so I was wondering what is your take on the meaning of the injury?

ProDog
Joined: 01/24/2016
Posts: 160
College Recruit
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CBI will play 4 10 minute quarters 2 shot foul after 4 fouls,no one and ones,number of team fouls reset at the end of each quarter.When the ball is inbounded in the front court they will have a 20 sec shot clock.CBI Homers 13-5 su 10-7 ats last year.CBI Round 1 dogs 12-3-1 ats last 2 years.CBI homers 88-19 su last 107.

NIT # 1 Seeds 2-9-1 ats in Round 1 the last 3 yrs(all dd favs again this year).NIT 1st round homers 14-2 su 10-6 ats LY .NIT round 1 Homers on a 55-12 su run by my count.NIT Homers 23-5 su last year.  NIT Homers 512-199 su.

CIT homers 14-10 su 8-16 ats last year.CIT Homers 87-54 su but on a 13- 35 ats run for the home teams.

all current runs by my hand kept records.(so give or take a couple,not for bar betting)

for 20 some odd years you could blindly bet the home team,that ended 15 yrs ago ats.

Remember when the NIT home dog was always gold vs the foreign invader as the hose came out early and often with the free throw parade?

Paypurr Tiger
Joined: 09/07/2015
Posts: 929
Pro Draft Prospect
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Dave, what do you think of the Thunder's mindset starting an Eastern road trip at the Nets, laying 6?  Usually the start of a road trip after a homestand is a little boost, if the team has an optimistic mindframe.  The Thunder seem to be a minor threat this year, but two home wins in a row over the rival Spurs and Jazz, both ahead in the standings, may have given them a shot in the arm.

Meanwhile he Nets are off a W over the Knicks, which is often enough to make a losing team a bit fat and happy.  They have certainly fit that pattern this year so far, and late March is often a time for letdowns.  Do the Thunder come out wanting this win more than the Nets?

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