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PB: On the Grizzlies bringing blues to Beale Street

PB: On the Grizzlies bringing blues to Beale Street
rdbend
Joined: 12/18/2010
Posts: 49
Waterboy
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All covered except GW.

By the way, Indiana opens on the road at Ga Tech.

sportsinvestingtoday
Joined: 10/25/2014
Posts: 1145
Professional
Not Ranked

Hi David,

thank you for your contributions above. I believe that there may be some value in the Over 104 Sacramento Team total this evening vs. Orlando.

Orlando's road defense has been consistently terrible this season and since Dec. 6, has yielded over 104 points on the road 20 out of the last 22 times.  In their last five games, the defense is yielding 111.2 points per game.

104 puts the Kings right around their home season avg., the offense despite the loss of Cousins really hasn't lost a step in terms of point production, in their last 5 games the Kings are averaging 104.6, granted two of these games went to OT, but they put up 98 in regulation to Utah and they had 116 in regulation to Washington.  the 92 against denver came as the 2nd game back-to-back, the washington OT just prior to it.

Given the median offensive production the Kings have versus a porous Orlando defense i can see value in the Over 104 tonight, interested to get your thoughts here?

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12814
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

wbunting4

Dave, I am curious to get your initial thoughts on the USC vs. Providence matchup.  Providence could have some difficulty slowing down Metu and Boatwright.  I couldn't find a matchup for Providence where they had to face a pair of skilled bigs like this.  In fact, the whole Big East looks kind of small on the front court.  This length disparity seems like a huge advantage for the Trojans.  

I thought the tournament committee over-rated the Big East in setting up the brackets, and then the oddsmakers over-rated Providence in particular in opening that game at pick'em. USC would have qualified as a full ticket on my ratings at -1, but the markets have quickly surged that one up to -2.5/-3. As noted in the weekend thread, the early birds do tend to be rather sharp at this tie of the year.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12814
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

benjy

Syracuse may be ripe to lay an egg on Tuesday at home vs. UNC Greensboro.  Here are some quotes from HC Jim Boeheim:

"All that matters," the big man stated without a hint of equivocation, "is what you do in the NCAA Tournament. That's all that matters." (from an interview in January 2017)

"Everybody's disappointed," Boeheim glumy confessed soon after the 68-team field had been identified and his outfit had been shunned. "That's only what you would expect. Nobody's happy."

"The year before last was kind of mediocre," said Boeheim only a few days after his January rejection of all things not NCAA Tournament. "This year is kind of mediocre. And that happens in this business. It's hard not to have that happen. We've done it eight and 10 years in a row. And some people have gone 20 years in a row, but that's very hard. It's a very difficult landscape in college basketball. There's parity and other stuff. You can slip very easily.

"We've had three or four different times in 40 years where we were going to struggle. Sometimes it's harder than others. Then there's always a re-birth when you get a couple of guys and you get back. But through our history, we had a couple of NIT years and then we got good. Then, we had an NIT year and a mediocre NCAA year. We've had two or three of those times."

With the students on Spring Break, word is that they are concerned about being able to get fans to come to the game, and tickets have been put on sale for $15, so the environment will be flat to say the least.

Do you see UNC Greensboro as having enough talent to stay within the current market of 12?

One of the challenges over the next couple of days is how much time to put into studying teams that I will likely only get to work with once, like UNC-Greensboro, and I am not sure if I will get far enough down the road to form a decent power rating for that game. It is an annual conundrum for this particular week, when there are so many betting options and pool options that bring opportunity into play. I may have something on that game tomorrow; it just comes down to all that is available right now, and the most efficient time management to maximize it.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12814
Rank NA
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Bama man

Hey Dave I've noticed that the Twolves have jumped out to 1q and 1H leads and sometimes give it up for  the game. Any thoughts on playing Minny 1q and/ or 1H as well as the game in tonight's game?

I couldn't fault that, because the Minnesota end-game still needs a little work/experience. The Wizards may struggle to have their legs under them in the early stages, and note that they have been struggling to get out of the gate well over this past stretch even when physically fresher.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12814
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

benjy

The vibes from Colorado State about the NIT are the polar opposite from Syracuse.  The Rams are excited to continue playing, and the coach is enthusiastic about the opportunity.

Gian Clavell, Emmanuel Omogbo and the rest of the players on CSU's men's basketball team aren't done just yet. They're having too much fun playing together.

So they'll be ready Tuesday night when the Rams open play in the NIT against the College of Charleston at Moby Arena.

"We still have more energy, more guys ready to go. We're all young, and we just want to play," Omogbo said Saturday, after the Rams' 79-71 loss to Nevada in the title game of the Mountain West tournament.

That desire to keep playing, to advance deep into the tournament, is the key to participating in postseason events, CSU coach Larry Eustachy said Sunday night.

Colorado State University's team didn't have it in 2015, when the Rams, as a No. 1 seed, dropped a first-round home game 86-76 in the NIT to South Dakota State after failing to receive an NCAA tournament berth they felt they had earned with a 27-6 record and No. 29 RPI. They didn't have it last year, either, he said, when the Rams turned down invitations to participate in the College Basketball Invitational and at least one other lower-tier postseason event.

"Last year's team was just so burned out; they didn't want to go to the CBI or anything," Eustachy said. "So I asked them point blank (after the MW title game), 'If we're going to go into a postseason tournament, we really want to try to win the whole thing.'

"They really want to play; they're excited. I think that's more than half the battle."

"We've got an opportunity to play (more games) with this team together, and that's what I'm looking forward to," said Clavell, the MW Player of the Year.

Do you see value on laying 3.5 with Colorado State in this matchup?

That one is not only going to require some scrutiny of the Charleston side for me, in particular a sea level team dealing with the altitude of Fort Collins, but note that there is one prime difference in the examples of Syracuse and Colorado State that may manifest itself a bit differently once the games start - physical energy. By bowing out early last week the Orange will be physically fresh, which can lead to them playing well once the game begins even if their prep was not at a high level. Meanwhile the Rams don't have much depth, and only got Sunday/Monday off after 3 games in 3 days n the MWC tournament. They may have the spark to want to play well, but will the legs be there?

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12814
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

sportsinvestingtoday

thank you for your contributions above. I believe that there may be some value in the Over 104 Sacramento Team total this evening vs. Orlando.

Orlando's road defense has been consistently terrible this season and since Dec. 6, has yielded over 104 points on the road 20 out of the last 22 times.  In their last five games, the defense is yielding 111.2 points per game.

104 puts the Kings right around their home season avg., the offense despite the loss of Cousins really hasn't lost a step in terms of point production, in their last 5 games the Kings are averaging 104.6, granted two of these games went to OT, but they put up 98 in regulation to Utah and they had 116 in regulation to Washington.  the 92 against denver came as the 2nd game back-to-back, the washington OT just prior to it.

Given the median offensive production the Kings have versus a porous Orlando defense i can see value in the Over 104 tonight, interested to get your thoughts here?

One of my time savers during this crunch period has been to only lightly grade Sacramento games since the Cousins trade, part of it being that it showed they were not going to take the rest of the season all that seriously (they know the roster will get blown up in the off-season), but also the fact that opposing teams were not going to take them all that seriously either. Hence there has been a series of roller coaster game flows, the Kings actually coming out strong in the early stages, which is what happens when the other side does not take them seriously, and then to get stopped cold when the game is on the line.

Here is the best way to categorize that - over their last 5 games, all of which were competitive going into the fourth quarter, they were held to just 99 points in the final stanza, an average of just 19.8 per game. That shows what can happen when the other team tries to lock them down. So for now I will no the doing much either on or against the Kings until the tourney menu lightens up (and even then MLB pre-season work may bring more value per time spent than studying this bunch). 

trapslap
Joined: 12/10/2012
Posts: 390
College Varsity
Not Ranked

I believe TWolves 1H  -1/2 is a solid play based on what I have seen so far this year and the path that the Wizards seem to be going down. Thank you for the time again today as always.

trapslap
Joined: 12/10/2012
Posts: 390
College Varsity
Not Ranked

Do the bucks ring any bells today with +4 currently being offered or is this a wait and see approach with Fizdale? I don't exactly trust Kidd with his rotations either...

pappahoops
Joined: 01/10/2016
Posts: 393
College Varsity
Not Ranked

benjy

Hey Dave,

The following schools are on spring break this week and have NIT home games:

Syracuse, Monmouth, Indiana, Colorado State, Alabama, Utah, UCF, Iowa, Houston, TCU & Illinois State

Houston is not playing at their home court.  They are playing in an event center where TX Southern plays.  I know they are doing renovations to Hofhienz.  Just FYI

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