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PB: For Louisville one win may mean so much

PB: For Louisville one win may mean so much
trapslap
Joined: 12/10/2012
Posts: 381
College Varsity
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Thursday was my worst day as of yet as a bettor. Nothing could go right, lost every play I made and yet I am still extremely thankful for your daily content and wisdom, without it I think a day like today would have broken me in the past. Thank you again

Mfs62975
Joined: 01/28/2017
Posts: 52
Practice Squad
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Take unc friday

benjy
Joined: 03/07/2015
Posts: 1598
Professional
Top 500 Contributor

Hey Dave,

In sifting through the quotes from the Michigan basketball team, it looks like they may be running on empty today in terms of their emotions:

“I thought, ‘This can’t be real,’ ” sophomore center Moritz Wagner said after the game. “Then I looked around and saw all the fear and it was very real. Next thing I know, I’m on the wing, jumping and then we’re all running. It was like in the movies where the plane blows up. We ran.”

He paused. “I’m still kind of speechless right now. I think we all are a little bit. These last 24 hours have been crazy.”

It left Beilein with a feeling he’d never had before in 42 years as a basketball coach.

“You know, when you’re going through it you don’t have time to stop and think about things, you’re just trying to figure out, ‘Okay, we’re in a crisis, what do we do next?’ ” he said, standing in the hallway after his team had removed any lingering doubts about its NCAA tournament status. “But as I walked off the court at halftime [with a 40-29 lead] it hit me for a minute. Then, after the game, it really hit me.

Beilein’s players said they could never remember him being so emotional after a game. “I think it just hit me how proud I was of them,” he said. “And how fortunate we all feel today.”

“What a crazy 24 hours,” Wagner said. “This game wasn’t about X’s and O’s, it wasn’t really about basketball. It was about this,”— he touched his heart — “and about toughness.”

Wywrot went home for the night and was explaining to his 4-year-old son why he’d come back after leaving earlier that day. “There was an accident,” he said to him. “But everyone’s okay.”

Wywrot stopped. “All of a sudden, he said to me, ‘Daddy, why are you crying?’ ”

Almost no one slept, especially with a 6 o’clock wake-up call. “I don’t sleep much this time of the year anyway,” Beilein said. “Usually I’m lying awake thinking about basketball. Last night, I didn’t sleep for one minute and I didn’t think about basketball for one minute either.”

Given the intense emotions they went through for the last 48 hours, what do you think about the possibility that they have nothing in the tank for the game against a Purdue team that will be gunning for them after they laid a beat down on them a few weeks ago?

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12329
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Top 50 Contributor

jigza2121

I wonder what you think of Bill Self as a coach Dave?  Do me he doesn't rank anywhere close to the top with the other coaches in basketball......He seems to have underachieved big time with relation to where his teams have been seeded going into the tournament and who they have lost 2 over the past 12 years or so.

Time to get a quick morning catch-up round before what will be a busy trading cycle - 

Self puts some excellent X's and O's schemes together each season, among the better at tweaking for the particulars of the players he has to work with, and he is among the very best at what could be called "set pieces" on offense - running plays out of a time out, and when having the ball out of bounds on their own end of the court. But one thing he has seemingly been guilty of is having his team reach their peak a bit too early, perhaps that13-year run of Big 12 regular season championships weighing a little too heavily in their seasonal arc. One good tool for the serious handicapper is to plot each teams power rating on a graph over the course of the season each year, to see the ebbs and flows and whether they build to a peak in March, or get their too early, and the Self graphs do tend to go a little flat towards the end of the season.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12329
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

Mfs62975

I want to be ready to pounce on Iowa state. What is go range and what do you think it opens at?

TCU/Iowa State will be one of the lead games in the Friday edition, the opportunity to talk about both the Cinderella aspect as we get to this stage of the week, but also the rather remarkable run the Morris/Thomas/Long trio has had for the Cyclones in this tournament - they are now up to 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS, having twice cut the nets down in Kansas City. ISU figures to be a popular ticket today, and -4 or less works from my end.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12329
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

newprodigy

Dave do you feel the rockets are better now then the first time they played the bulls? I believe that number was Hou 7.5 ..... 8.  Before Butler was announced out and im sure skewed that game in many ways. The madhouse on madison probaly worth 3.... Are the oddsmakers shorting the rockets here?

The Rockets closed at -9.5 in the first meeting vs. Chicago, winning in in overtime, back before the All Star break and the addition of Lou Williams. As such no particular bargain at the -5 that is out there, although it will be interesting to see if the Houston shooters reconnect after the dismal showing vs. Utah, in particular James Harden going 0-8 from 3-poit range. 
David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12329
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

benjy

In sifting through the quotes from the Michigan basketball team, it looks like they may be running on empty today in terms of their emotions:

“I thought, ‘This can’t be real,’ ” sophomore center Moritz Wagner said after the game. “Then I looked around and saw all the fear and it was very real. Next thing I know, I’m on the wing, jumping and then we’re all running. It was like in the movies where the plane blows up. We ran.”

He paused. “I’m still kind of speechless right now. I think we all are a little bit. These last 24 hours have been crazy.”

It left Beilein with a feeling he’d never had before in 42 years as a basketball coach.

“You know, when you’re going through it you don’t have time to stop and think about things, you’re just trying to figure out, ‘Okay, we’re in a crisis, what do we do next?’ ” he said, standing in the hallway after his team had removed any lingering doubts about its NCAA tournament status. “But as I walked off the court at halftime [with a 40-29 lead] it hit me for a minute. Then, after the game, it really hit me.

Beilein’s players said they could never remember him being so emotional after a game. “I think it just hit me how proud I was of them,” he said. “And how fortunate we all feel today.”

“What a crazy 24 hours,” Wagner said. “This game wasn’t about X’s and O’s, it wasn’t really about basketball. It was about this,”— he touched his heart — “and about toughness.”

Wywrot went home for the night and was explaining to his 4-year-old son why he’d come back after leaving earlier that day. “There was an accident,” he said to him. “But everyone’s okay.”

Wywrot stopped. “All of a sudden, he said to me, ‘Daddy, why are you crying?’ ”

Almost no one slept, especially with a 6 o’clock wake-up call. “I don’t sleep much this time of the year anyway,” Beilein said. “Usually I’m lying awake thinking about basketball. Last night, I didn’t sleep for one minute and I didn’t think about basketball for one minute either.”

Given the intense emotions they went through for the last 48 hours, what do you think about the possibility that they have nothing in the tank for the game against a Purdue team that will be gunning for them after they laid a beat down on them a few weeks ago?

This is where we often see a crash take place, a team that had a particular high having to sustain it in the aftermath, and in this case what they went through may begin to sink in, after it was such a scramble to get to Landover. But the markets have already been quick there, with Purdue -2 elevating to -3, and I even see the first 3.5 already. Purdue would have been a good fit at -2, and still a lesser one at -3.

rjr58
Joined: 08/09/2012
Posts: 57
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Dave

   I know this is a down Mich St team but it seems like a lot of value on them over what I think is an over rated Minnesota squad.  Beat them twice during the year with the last win pretty convincing and a thumping on the boards.  Am I underestimating the Gophers

benjy
Joined: 03/07/2015
Posts: 1598
Professional
Top 500 Contributor

Hey Dave,

In addition to the advantage of more fans in the stands today, Maryland may have an added boost of energy vs. Northwestern.  

Here are some quotes from coaches and players regarding the snub of MD freshmen for the all Big 10 rookie team:

Maryland Coach Mark Turgeon needed to vent Tuesday afternoon, even if it meant stepping out of character. He was still stewing over the omission of his three freshman starters — Anthony Cowan Jr., Kevin Huerter and Justin Jackson — from the Big Ten’s all-rookie men’s basketball team that was announced Monday night. Turgeon fired off two frustrated tweets in support of his players, asking why their contributions to 24 wins, including 12 league wins and eight road victories, hadn’t brought any accolades.

“We loved it, to be totally honest. The players loved it,” Huerter said of Turgeon’s tweets. “For us, it just showed that he’s going to fight for us. He’s not afraid to speak his mind.”

“It should motivate our guys to work harder. I know it would me if I was in their shoes. They handled it the right way. I told them before it came out publicly, and they handled it the right way,” Turgeon said. “Hopefully it will add a little fuel.”

It looks like the game is opening MD-1.  Do you see any value on Maryland in this spot?

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12329
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

benjy

In addition to the advantage of more fans in the stands today, Maryland may have an added boost of energy vs. Northwestern.  

Here are some quotes from coaches and players regarding the snub of MD freshmen for the all Big 10 rookie team:

Maryland Coach Mark Turgeon needed to vent Tuesday afternoon, even if it meant stepping out of character. He was still stewing over the omission of his three freshman starters — Anthony Cowan Jr., Kevin Huerter and Justin Jackson — from the Big Ten’s all-rookie men’s basketball team that was announced Monday night. Turgeon fired off two frustrated tweets in support of his players, asking why their contributions to 24 wins, including 12 league wins and eight road victories, hadn’t brought any accolades.

“We loved it, to be totally honest. The players loved it,” Huerter said of Turgeon’s tweets. “For us, it just showed that he’s going to fight for us. He’s not afraid to speak his mind.”

“It should motivate our guys to work harder. I know it would me if I was in their shoes. They handled it the right way. I told them before it came out publicly, and they handled it the right way,” Turgeon said. “Hopefully it will add a little fuel.”

It looks like the game is opening MD-1.  Do you see any value on Maryland in this spot?

I think -1 works, but I don't expect it to last in the marketplace. This is a unique setting for Maryland because the Terrapins have been home for the entire month of March to this point, and should be pretty well settled in. They had control of the proceedings when the teams met in Evanston earlier, and at the end of a close game I am not sure if there is anyone in the Big 10 I would trust more with the ball than Melo Tremble.

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