Point Blank – March 3, 2017
The Game Inside the Game – Weekend Edition…It’s Guitar Friday; time for some classic Gary Moore…
If we are in March it is indeed madness already at this stage, the final weekend of the regular season for the major NCAA conference bringing motivational aspects to the forefront, and with that significant challenges across the betting marketplace. In truth I anticipate this particular board as much as any across the sporting calendar, the experience of the decades making it easier to anticipate the various directions some of these matchups can take. Full season stats and power ratings move to a back seat this weekend.
The format today will be the same as previous weekends, taking “The Game Inside the Game” approach on some of the major showdowns ahead, with one general pit stop first – not all of the better teams and coaches will be going all out.
Since we have a lot of work to do the jukebox is plugged in, and from now to the end of the NCAA tournament it will be Guitar Fridays, bringing classics in which some of the greats took their game to a higher level, much as a few of the teams are about to do (and hopefully many of you in your own handicapping work). Today it is the late great Gary Moore, with “Parisienne Walkways”, and yes if Gary Moore is in the rotation there will be some Peter Green on the way soon. Those of you that get that move to the front of the class -
Now let’s get to work…
Item: Some good coaches may not give a damn
While listening to Moore is a master at work, not all masters will be at their best this weekend. For some teams the regular season has already been “mission accomplished”, so now the sights may be fully turned to the conference tournaments and the Big Dance ahead, the weekend scoreboards of far lesser importance.
It starts tonight with Steve Prohm and Iowa State. The Cyclones can lock up 2nd place in the Big 12 with a win at West Virginia, but is that enough of a motivation to go hard? They put in a lot of emotion for that LHG win over Oklahoma State on Tuesday night, and a team without much depth is well aware of what the grind will be like in Kansas City next week. Meanwhile it is Senior Night for a whole slew of Mountaineers, including starters Nathan Adrian and Tarik Phillip, and prime rotation reserves Teyvon Mayes and Brandon Watkins. ISU may go hard early, but against a much deeper team and in front of a sell-out crowd, will Prohm choose to chase if they fall behind?
I believe Bill Self may bring less focus on the scoreboard than any major coach this weekend. His team is extremely depth-shy, and has not only wrapped up the Big 12 title, but has also been through the emotion of Senior Night for Frank Mason and Landen Lucas, and in reality the last game in Lawrence for Josh Jackson. Self may not care all that much about playing three games in three days next week either.
Is there anything for Jay Wright to accomplish by winning at Georgetown? Outside of perhaps securing that he won’t be facing John Thompson III next season, no. The Wildcats have the Big East top seed wrapped up, and are entitled to coast this weekend. Meanwhile if Oregon and Arizona have already won earlier in the day, and both will be heavily favored, then UCLA is locked in to the #3 seed in the Pac 12 tournament, and has no compelling reason to go hard vs. Washington State, especially since the Bruins are another team that lacks depth. The bow-outs for seniors Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton, and the Pauley Pavilion farewell for Lonzo Ball, can take place while UCLA is still short of covering the spread.
Now time for “The Game Inside the Game”, with keys not only to help this weekend, but to also better understand the teams for their playoff/tourney action ahead –
RAPTORS/WIZARDS – If John Wall had more assists than the entire Toronto team in the first meeting…
In setting up the first Toronto/Washington clash this week there was a detailed take on how the Raptors had opened 3-0 post-break without Kyle Lowry – it hadn’t been pretty, the offense often little more than DeMar DeRozan going one-on-one to create something, but it was enough to overcome three straight double-figure deficits. They were inept enough on offense to fall way behind, but brought enough grit to catch up.
Then came Wednesday’s 105-96 loss to the Wizards, when they once again fell way behind (this time by 24), but lacked the oomph to get back in the game. Pay little heed to the final score – it was 103-86 with 1:49 to play before a 10-2 run across silly time to make it look far closer than it was.
DeRozan’s frustrations were easy to see on Wednesday, once again being forced to go one-on-one to make things happen, and he finished 7-20 from the field. The Toronto offense only generated 11 assists, two of them over the final 0:35. Contrast that with John Wall having 13 over his 34:28 of court time.
So let’s explore some basketball theory. If your offense lacks flexibility, and has to rely on talent instead of tactics, might an immediate rematch create an added disadvantage? The Wizards are capable of making some adjustments given their personnel, but are the Raptors stuck with a limited playbook that the opposing defense has pretty much already seen?
In the four games without Lowry the Toronto Assist% is now down to 36.5.For perspective, here are the NBA’s worst teams in that category over the last five seasons:
2012 OKC 49.7
2013 NEW YORK 52.7
2014 PHOENIX 49.3
2015 PHOENIX 52.2
2016 TORONTO 51.1
2017 TORONTO-PB 36.5
That show just how serious the current Raptors issues are, regardless of a 3-1 record in those games. I believe they will play with a lot of energy on defense in tonight’s rematch but may be hard-pressed to generate a positive offensive flow against a team that knows what is coming. There was some value at Under 209 (a shopper could have filled out at 209.5) for this one out there in the early trading, a bit of that having gone into pocket, and should that price point appear again you might want to take a long look.
NOTRE DAME/LOUISVILLE - If you break the Louisville presses have you broken Louisville
Rick Pitino’s Cardinals were a lead topic here a little over a week ago, focusing on a defense that is rated so highly in the national metrics, despite having a fundamental flaw – they foul way too often. They are #275 in the nation in FTA/FGA and #226 in fouls per game committed. On Wednesday they were whistled 27 times at Wake Forest, the Demon Deacons making 26-36 attempts in that 88-81 upset win (yes, four of the fouls were forced down the stretch).
There are two points to make here. First for more on the defense not being as good as rated, let’s go back to Pitino - "We've been a very average defensive team the whole year. I've told you that now a thousand times, and I'm not going to keep repeating it. I'm not going to keep giving you a clinic on why every time you ask that question, because I'm in practice with them every single day. We don't move well enough laterally. We don't pressure the ball well enough. We're not athletic enough at the (guard) spot."
Now for some more – the Louisville offense is also not as good as the #22 overall rating. The Cardinals are just #137 in Effective FG%, #120 in 3-point%, #135 in 2-point% and #235 in FT%. But while the Louisville defense has not been up to Pinto’s standards, the one thing the Cards have still done is create turnovers with their ball pressure, leading to easy scoring opportunities. Hence the offense looks better than it really is – when the turnovers aren’t there, and they have to step up and run sets, there have been struggles.
So what happens when they face teams that don’t turn the ball over often? Notre Dame is #1 in the ACC in TO%, and beat the Cardinals 77-70 earlier in South Bend. Who is #2? The Wake Forest team that beat them on Wednesday. Does the Louisville power rating call for a drop against teams that can handle the pressure defense? There is a foundation for that.
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE - Why an unranked team might close as the favorite over #1
The back-room discussions on this one have been rather fun over the last two days. Kansas goes to Stillwater rated #1 in the nation in the AP poll, while Oklahoma State is unranked, yet by tipoff the Cowboys may be favored. It will be interesting to see just what the final send-outs from the oddsmakers will be, and the market reactions.
This charming possibility sets up from two directions. First there are those Kansas issues written about above – while sitting at #1 was a big deal for Gonzaga over the last month, it just doesn’t mean much of anything to Self and his program. It is a been-there-done-that episode, and the primary goal now is doing what has to be done to finish #1, not hold on to the spot. Primary in that is the lack of depth – Frank Mason has averaged 37.3 minutes and Devonte’ Graham 36.9 across a grueling Big 12 grind, and right in the middle of that league schedule was a difficult trip to Kentucky. The Jayhawk back-court could use a breather.
The flip side here is that Oklahoma State is damn good right now, the Cowboys on a 10-2 run after opening 0-6 in Big 12 play, the only recent losses by three points each vs. Baylor and Iowa State. It was a case of good talent and good coaching meshing, Brad Underwood learning his players in his first season, and his players learning what was expected of them. And there is that matter of having more than enough bodies in the rotation – Jawun Evans has been just a half step on the ladder behind Mason and Lonzo Ball this season, but part of that is Evans only having to average 30.1 minutes in Big 12 play. There may be a lot of life left in those legs, which will challenge the Kansas energy level on Saturday.
It isn’t just a case of how good OSU has been recently, but how that surge blends into the full season numbers; the offensive charting is getting rather serious now. Last Friday I went into detail on how historically good this season’s UCLA offense was, so let’s add some spice to the final weekend, and look at the three best teams in terms of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency over the past decade:
2015 WISCONSIN 127.0
2017 OKLAHOMA ST 125.1
2017 UCLA 125.1
The Cowboys are slightly ahead of the Bruins when you do the rounding. You might not notice that standard of excellence from other tracking but there is a key involved – this calculation factors in the level of competition, and both Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin rate the Oklahoma State schedule as #2 in the nation to this point, before even playing Kansas for the second time. Consider that prior to the rigors of the Big 12, they faced the likes of North Carolina on a neutral court, and had road trips to Maryland and Wichita State.
Oklahoma State has developed into quite a team across quite a schedule, which raises an intriguing notion as to what kind of crescendo there might be come Saturday – because of the depth and the unfolding layers of the Underwood playbook this is a team that still may not have played its best basketball yet.
DUKE/NORTH CAROLINA, Part I – On Roy Williams showing respect for the sport (here’s your chance to see Kanler Coker)
Not many coaches show a reverence for basketball that Roy Williams does – the sport has been awfully good to him, and he is fully aware of that. It becomes a bit of a handicapping issue when his Tar Heels host Duke in that rematch tomorrow night, as it does every other season for the final North Carolina home game.
First note that Williams makes as good of a use of walk-ons as any coach. He understands how much they can mean to a program in terms of going hard at practice and helping to keep various team disciplines in check. Williams chooses to reward those players by giving them a start on Senior Night, regardless of who the opponent is, and every other season that opponent just happens to be Duke. So get ready to watch Kanler Coker in the opening possessions, and for Williams to be leading the cheers.
The first thing for the handicapper to do, of course, is be aware of this, and not go scurrying for some injury/suspension news if Joel Berry or Theo Pinson are not in the starting lineup (Williams may also give a start to senior Stillman White). This is just business as usual.
Over the past decade here are the walk-ons that have had the honor of being in the starting lineup against Duke -
Luke Davis (2015)
Frank Tanner (2013)
Daniel Bullock, Van Hatchell, D. J. Johnston (2011)
Mike Copeland (2009)
Dewey Burke (2007)
The stints won’t be long, those six combining for 17 floor minutes, going a collective 0-1 from the field with two rebounds (Johnston was a beast on the boards in the 2011 game). But note that even against the class of competition Duke brings, those early moments do not necessarily hurt North Carolina – while there is the issue of having a lesser player on the court, it can be countered by the energy this particular concept brings to the rest of the team, and certainly to the fans.
I end up rating it the handicapping factor a dead wash in terms of power rating the game, but also an internal plus for me in being able to appreciate the sport even more for a few moments. After that it gets real serious in Chapel Hill…
DUKE/NORTH CAROLINA, Part II – Are there rebounding pendulums?
One of the notions that is a general part of handicapping is looking for extremes to regress in terms of shooting percentages, an aspect of the game that can bring a bit of randomness into play. If you are going to take a deep dive on Iowa State/WVU tonight, note that one of the big sequences in the Mountaineers opening up that 85-72 win at Ames earlier saw back-to-back possessions bring banked 3-pointers from Beetle Bolden and Daxter Miles. Some nights shooting just happens.
Rebounding tends to be different, with far more consistency to it, and while many will focus on the 3-point shooting from Duke’s 84-76 win over North Carolina at Cameron in the first go-round, which indeed they should, was the rebounding a matter of the Blue Devils having a tactical win, or was there some randomness attached?
In terms of the shooting it was 13-27 beyond the arc for Duke vs. 4-12 for UNC. That is substantial. Meanwhile it was 31-29 on the boards for the Blue Devils, and while that may not appear to be substantial, it was. In particular note that Duke came down with 24 defensive rebounds vs. only six offensive caroms for the Tar Heels. Let’s set some perspective on that:
2017 Rebounding Season 1st Game
NC Offense 42.3 (#1) 20.0
Duke Defense 71.7 (#129) 80.0
The Tar Heels haven’t just been the best offensive rebounding team in the nation, they have been the best by a wide margin – no other team has topped 40.0 percent. Meanwhile because of a lack of size and depth, the Blue Devils have not been anything special at clearing the defensive glass.
That matchup did not play out anywhere near the numbers in the fist clash, North Carolina grabbing less than half of the usual ratio. This is a good case study for the basketball scientist, and the shrewd handicapper can be digging more deeply into that first contest to see if there was something legit that Duke was doing, or if it may have instead been a pendulum that swung too far in a particular direction, and is subject to a reversal.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA...
Yes, folks, based on the way the breakdown was covered earlier, #610 Oklahoma State (6:00 Eastern) will be going into pocket, with plenty of pick'em in the Saturday morning trading, and this one good to -2. I really do not have a feel for timing the ticket, since it could be a Public vs. Pros scrum over the course of the day, but I would not pass up a pick'em right now for any that see it available.
And since you may also be wondering given the analysis as one of the lead topics, #539 Notre Dame (2:00 Eastern) will also make the list at the +8 that is available. The Fighting Irish have plenty to play for, taking the court still with a chance for the top seed in the ACC, and with so many seniors on the floor they can handle a hostile road environment - outside of the late run-out vs. Virginia in South Bend, they have not lost contact in conference play this season.
For your listening pleasure…
This week’s NCAA podcast with Brad Powers is up, a chance to take a deeper dive at some key emerging issues across a most intriguing board -
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