Point Blank – March 2, 2017
What now for the Warriors…How interesting have the Thunder become…Time for Palmtree to shout “Play Ball” (a Team Total winner is in the brew)…
As noted in yesterday’s lead, the 2017 NBA season has now had the axis titled via a flurry of personnel changes, and it led to some fascinating viewing last night. Thursday brings more of the same, the television cameras in the right places for some prime Case Studies in Basketball Consciousness, and it is also time to begin building out the 2017 MLB investment portfolio, Palmtree having secured a position and now ready to share.
Before going forward the first step today is to look back, enough food for thought from the Wednesday results to require a lot of digestion. It can begin with one of the prime notions from yesterday concerning how much DeMar Derozan is having to carry the Toronto offense, which is scoring far more often via skill than tactics. So as the Raptors and Wizards head to Washington for a Friday rematch it should be noted that John Wall had more assists last night in 34:28 of court time (13), than the entire Toronto team had across the full 240. And make sure you note Bojan Bogdanovic coring 27 points in 25:08 (58 in 81:56 the last three games), helping to provide some badly needed punch off the bench. Add Brandon Jennings to the mix, and Wall/Beal/Porter can begin to have their loads lightened – Washington just got an easy road rout in which Porter did not score or have an assist, which is significant.
The Cavaliers did not just have Deron Williams stick his toe in the water to test the temperature; he was out there for 31:11 at Boston, including taking the biggest shot of the game at crunch time. Of course, it was also a 31:11 in which a PG had 0 assists and two turnovers, while also not coming up with a steal. It brings the constant reminder that this is Tyronn Lue in charge…
Meanwhile those that did not stay up to watch all of Rockets/Clippers may have properly gone to sleep on the outcome, but don’t do that on the particulars. Houston led 108-78 entering the final stanza, and the NBA stat of the night was a resounding 62-36 domination of the boards by the Rockets. How about this for a way to get a better feel that mismatch:
Player Team Reb
Beverley HOU 12
Capela HOU 12
Hilario HOU 10
Jordan LAC 9
Anderson HOU 7
Ariza HOU 7
Dekker HOU 6
Across NBA history, how many times would six of the top seven rebounders have been on the same team? Maybe some Wilt Chamberlain games back in the 1960s, but you get the drift. By the way, Blake Griffin had one defensive rebound in 34:37 of court time.
Now time to get the Thursday night focus points set, and you know where it has to start –
Item: What now for the Warriors
As noted yesterday, it will be four weeks before the Warriors even re-evaluate the status of Kevin Durant. The earliest he would likely return to action would be the start of the playoffs, and while the thumb injury that Toronto’s Kyle Lowry has will not impact his conditioning, for Durant it is a much different story – hence when he does come back there is no guarantee that he snaps right back to form. That puts Golden State under the microscope tonight for both the short-term and longer range.
There are some fascinating elements in play, a primary one being Steph Curry also going through a rare poor shooting cycle, going 2-20 from 3-point range so far on this road trip, missing 14 in a row at one stretch.
Welcoming Curry tonight is an unsettled Chicago PG rotation and a defense that has been dismal since the All Star break, rating #26 across the NBA (a take worth filing away from Fred Hoiberg - “But we've got to find a way to get back to guarding. It starts with transition with our team. We've gotten exposed against several teams. You have to get back, load to the ball and still be able to close out to the shooters. It's also an individual battle that you've got to take some pride in and go out and win. We didn't win enough of those (Tuesday) night. They were going around us and when we did come and help, they would spray it out to the shooter or get it to somebody rolling to the rim. It exposed us.“), so getting back on form would not be a surprise.
But what will Steve Kerr’s rotation be? A Warrior beat writer has suggested the likely call is Patrick McCaw into the starting lineup, in order to not disrupt Andre Iguodala’s bench role, and as soon as Sunday’s game at New York for Matt Barnes to possibly move up to starting (Barnes should be in Chicago in time to play tonight).
Part of why the Durant injury is so major stems from Golden State not being all that deep. Had that twist of fate not taken place on Tuesday the task for Kerry the remainder of the way was going to be slowly gearing his rotation for the playoffs, and carefully managing the minutes of the key cogs. Now it is much different – it isn’t just about winning enough games to secure the home court advantage (they enter the day leading the Spurs by 3.5 games), but also to consider the possibility that Durant might not return until after the playoffs have started, and that a rotation has to be put together that can withstand the challenges. The first round is a walkover, but after that nothing comes easily.
There is something else worth focusing on as you prep for Warriors/Bulls – is this a bounce-back night for Jimmy Butler, or has not being traded to a contender led him into a bit of a funk? Butler has only scored 16.0 ppg on 33.9 percent shooting since the All Star break, and had one of the worst games of his professional career in Tuesday’s dismal 125-107 loss to Denver – just eight points (3-13 shooting) and four rebounds over 35:06, Chicago out-scored by 20 when he was on the floor. Might the shining lights of tonight’s setting lead to a break-out for him? His pride and energy might make for something interesting on the props boards.
Meanwhile the TNT night-cap also brings plenty to see as the various components on the Western Conference balance of power play out…
Item: Just how interesting are the Thunder becoming
What would seem like one of the strangest box sores of the season on Tuesday is instead something that shouldn’t be dismissed too quickly. Entering the game vs. Utah the Thunder were dead last in the NBA in 3-point shooting, yet against a quality defense they came out and made their first dozen, finishing 15-22 for the game. I don’t chart that as being roulette, but instead what it means to have Enes Kanter back (he doesn’t shoot 3-pointers but his presence opens up a defense); Doug McDermott on board; and also the injury to Victor Oladipo giving Alex Arbines some needed playing time (11-21 from 3-point range over the last three games).
With Kanter sidelined and a ridiculous travel schedule taking a toll, Oklahoma City was running on fumes leading up to the All Star break, with seven losses by 14 points or more over the final 16 games. Now the Thunder are 3-0 SU and ATS out of the break despite not getting a minute yet from Oladipo. Color this bunch dangerous going forward, a few added weapons not only taking a scoring load off of Russell Westbrook (file this from him - "They are making my job a lot easier. They put teams in a tough spot because they have to help when we have great shooters around the perimeter. It's tough for teams."), but also a rotation that can play defense and hit the boards.
Want to have some fun? How about a list of prime playoff contenders that the Thunder beat in both defense and rebounding on the full season numbers –
HOUSTON (42-19)
CLEVELAND (41-17)
BOSTON (38-22)
LA CLIPPERS (36-23)
WASHINGTON (35-23)
TORONTO (36-24)
Now that Arbines has played enough to develop some confidence, when Oladipo returns (he may see action tonight) there will be three good scoring options off of the bench, and also the opportunity for Billy Donovan to mix and match with various lineup options. That means just enough offense to give anyone a fight in the post-season.
Tonight’s matchup in Portland does bring substantial edges in defense and rebounding against a Trail Blazer team soft in both areas, and it was enough for me to have a small “go” on #705 Oklahoma City (10:30 Eastern) at +1, which was available at the beginning of the Thursday trading, but has not lasted. Should that price point re-appear, the Thunder fit into pocket.
And if it doesn’t reappear, you can always bet some baseball…
Item: Palmtree’s MLB 2017 begins
While so many of our are focused on the sound of leather bouncing off of hardwood, our old pal Eric Strasser, author of “Betting Baseball for Profit” and better known as Palmtree around these parts, keeps his focus on the crack of the bat. He does a great job of beating the markets tro the soft spots in the MLB Team Totals, and will be sharing some of those with us (naturally, of course, after his own greedy pockets have already been lined with the best of it). Sometimes the price point survives to leave value for others, as is the case with Milwaukee, so time for Palmtree’s first swing at a 2017 pitch -
One team flying way under the radar is the Milwaukee Brewers. I've played them Over 68 and 68.5 and I think 69 is OK at -110 or better. The starting pitching is a bunch of no names that are all better than you think. Nothing spectacular in the pen but they brought in three free agents to stabilize things and they're at least average. Ryan Braun's thumb is finally healthy. They're a pain in the ass to play with tons of speed at the top of the lineup with Jonathan Villar and Keon Broxton. They took a gamble this winter signing Eric Thames from Japan and giving him the cleanup spot and the first base job. He destroyed the Japanese league the last few years after failing in MLB. I think getting Travis Shaw from Boston was a good "buy low" move. Domingo Santana needs to hit. The defense is excellent, especially up the middle.
The division is way down with the Cards and Pirates projected 4-5 wins fewer than last year, and the Milwaukee talent is better. They also have two top 50 prospects (Lewis Brinson and Josh Hader) who could make the team but will definitely be up by June. This is a pretty strong play for me.
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