Point Blank – February 23, 2017
What now for Boogie & Brow (and good luck Alvin Gentry)…Steve Kerr is allowed to gripe, but he doesn’t really have to worry about his team being Road Warriors…Why in the hell didn't Coach K go to a zone...
The NBA returns tonight for the annual sprint to the finish, the awkward dynamic of the All Star Break coming so late in the schedule forcing teams to play too many games before the down time, and then not enough games left to take full advantage once they get their second wind. There are some major storylines developing, naturally beginning in New Orleans tonight, and the potential for some trades that could have a major impact on the way over the course of the day.
That means time to get to work…
Item: Can Boogie & Brow work together, and if so how long might it take
Would you really want to be Alvin Gentry right now? There is the upside of one of the more unique opportunities that an NBA coach could ever have, trying to weave the unique talents of two gifted big men together, Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins still having untapped potential despite the number of years that each has already put in. And there is the downside of only 25 games remaining on the schedule, should the Pelicans not make the playoffs, with six teams in the Western Conference competing with them for that #8 seed, three with better records.
Of course, the reward for getting that #8 is to have to take on the Warriors in the first round anyway. Gentry may well be coaching for his professional life with only a limited amount of time to make an intriguing, but awkward as hell, puzzle fit.
Naturally he will show optimism in public - "It's just a matter of putting it all together and, obviously, there's a chemistry thing. But I don't see that as a problem at all I think their (Davis' and Cousins') games are very complementary and it gives us an opportunity. Also, one of the areas we've struggled in is the rebounding part of it, especially giving up offensive rebounds. I think, honestly, with (Cousins') size and Omri's size, we can put a really big team out there on the floor.”
Those rebounding notions are rather serious ones – the Pelicans are #29 in the NBA at clearing the boards, ahead of only Dallas, and just on pure size alone they will get better. But with only a couple of practices to incorporate Cousins into the mix, there are basketball chemistry issues that go far beyond the size and physical tools. One of the first exhibits will be whether Cousins can fit into the style that Gentry wants to coach. If not, there will be a new Pelican HC when training camp opens in October, which would be #8 already in the Cousins career arc.
Here is the gist in terms of offensive tactics, and it is only fitting that the first showcase is for New Orleans to be facing off tonight against Mike D’Anotni. Gentry was an assistant under D’Antoni for six seasons, before moving on to Golden State, and there was a most memorable comment he made after the Warriors won the championship in 2015 – “Tell Mike D’Antonio he’s vindicated! We just kicked everyone’s ass playing the way everybody complained about.”
Can this be a fit for Cousins? Before we get to issues of concentration and focus, which will matter down the line (for now Boogie offers - "I think we can wreak havoc on this league", which is frightening on so many levels), what about the practical matter of his habits as a ball stopper needing to be changed –
NBA Centers, Seconds Per Touch
#1 COUSINS 2.34
#2 OKAFOR 2.21
#3 M. GASOL 1.98
#4 PLUMLEE 1.97
#5 EMBIID 1.95
At least Cousins has had a history of playing at a faster tempo than the way that the Kings were trying to grind this season, but it is going to take some time. Should he and Davis get comfortable in their spacing, this can become a truly difficult team to guard, especially in a small-ball era.
It is when the Pelicans are on defense that the biggest issues may emerge this evening…
Item: About that Houston offense
The rich got richer during the All Star break in a move that I don’t fully appreciate yet, Houston dealing Corey Brewer and a draft pick to the Lakers for Lou Williams. The Rockets gave away some versatility and defense to add another explosive scorer, which did not seem to be a need. How about this for a daily double?
NBA Bench Points Leaders
1. LOU WILLIAMS 1,065
2. ERIC GORDON 770
It could mean that there is a desire to get James Harden off the court a bit more before the playoffs, since he is on the verge of leading the NBA in minutes played for the third straight season. And it could also mean that D’Antoni is going to turn the offense up even more. If that is the case, it is time to appreciate just how good the Rockets have already been in their first season in his system:
Best NBA Offense since 2010 (PP100)
1. GOLDEN STATE 2017 114.2
2. GOLDEN STATE 2016 112.5
3. HOUSTON 2017 111.5
This isn’t just a case of playing fast, with the Houston pace at #2, but also of playing awfully well. Will it be enough to overcome a defense that just doesn’t have the tools to be much more than average? That is going to be a prime issue when we get to the playoffs – for a one-off regular season game the Rockets may be the single most difficult team to prepare for, but in the post-season the intricacies of their style get easier to cope with as a playoff series unfolds.
I had a target in mind for tonight when first breaking down the matchup, hoping to find a Houston Team Total of 113, but the markets have not cooperated, with 114.5 the going rate. I may still bite off a small piece of 114 should that be found over the course of the day.
Item: And some stuff worth tracking from Steve Kerr
Steve Kerr doesn’t have much to complain about these days. The Warrior chemistry has developed perhaps even a bit ahead of schedule, with the offense unguardable by the current league members, and the defense all the way up to #2 by the All Star break. There is also a major difference in pressure between what Kerr had to deal with down the stretch last season and the current flow, with an opportunity to put the home court advantage through the playoffs in hand early, and then carefully space the minutes of his key cogs over the closing games.
But while the level of competition ahead is not difficult, some of the travel is, and the very fact that Kerr was do adamant about this means that it is something is worth paying a little extra attention to –
“We have the most insane schedule I’ve ever seen in all my years in the NBA coming up. Five-game trip back East, come home for one, fly to Minnesota and then have a back-to-back in San Antonio. Here you go, Golden State, here’s your marquee game against the Spurs on Saturday night on ABC, and it’ll be your eighth game in 13 days with 10,000 miles. It’s insane. So I’ve got to be very careful about our players’ welfare and make sure they’re fresh and not too fatigued. We know that can lead to injury.”
It begins tonight with a clash vs. the Clippers that leaves Doc Rivers with a difficult decision to make. Chris Paul has not only been back at practice at least a week earlier than expected, but apparently has performed well enough for Rivers to comment - “Chris looked great yesterday. He really did. That’s all I’m going to tell you. But he looked great. He went through the whole practice. So it was good, really good. He could play tomorrow. I can’t tell you if he will or not, but he’s been cleared medically.”
Now the Rivers conundrum. He badly needs for his team to play a competitive game against the Warriors in the last crack before a possible playoff matchup, having been beaten by 72 points across the three meetings so far (two of them played without Paul). But there is also the matter of a home game against the Spurs on Friday, the single toughest back-to-back any team will face this season in terms of difficulty of opposition. Does Rivers try to close the psychological gap with Golden State, or save Paul for tomorrow and at least try to get a split out of the sequence? It will be a battle of nerves for both Rivers and Gentry today.
About Last Night…
It is not only necessary to give Jim Boeheim and Syracuse a tip of the cap here for that upset of Duke, which reduced the net worth a bit, but to also bring it forward as a handicapping issue. I will go brief today because Syracuse/Louisville provides enough food for thought that their Sunday afternoon clash will be one of the feature games here tomorrow, but once again the Orange showed rather remarkable resiliency.
Syracuse has played seven February games, and in each of them the Orange trailed by at least seven points in the second half. For a team so bereft of depth that Tyler Lydon and Andrew White never left the floor in that stretch, with John Gillon also going the full 40 minutes last night (taking him to 280 minutes out of a possible 290 in February), it is a significant achievement that they rallied to win four of those games, while losing another in OT.
Now the conundrum, which I will dig more deeply into tomorrow. There might be a notion for some to state that the adrenaline this team is playing with makes them impervious to long-term fatigue notions, but that might be dangerous. Duke had advantages of 35-25 in rebounds, 6-3 in steals and 4-1 in blocked shots last night, while each team had eight turnovers. That added up to the Blue Devils getting 17 more FG attempts, while Syracuse had eight more FT tries, so if we divide the FTs by two, it was a net of 13 more scoring opportunities for Duke. The difference was in the efficiency of the shooting – the Orange winning by a dynamic 53.2 percent to 39.1.
Hence a deeper dive that may show that fatigue really is an issue, if we consider that until Gillon banked that game-winner, the shooting was 52.2 to 39.1, and that wide of a gap was only enough to have Syracuse in a tie game. There will be more to come on this front in the Friday edition.
Item: And from the other coaching staff...
As a final aside from the standpoint of being a basketball purist, why on earth did Mike Krzyzewski not go to a zone defense when Luke Kennard and Grayson Allen were each playing with four fouls down the stretch? Syracuse ran several successful plays to get Lydon isolated on Allen, who could not offer resistance, and the entire Duke defense was broken down easily at crunch time.
The Orange got points on eight of their last nine trips, Duke coming up with one defensive rebound over the final 6:00. On two of those possessions Syracuse missed the first shot, but got the offensive rebound, which was not a strength on the night (the Orange only had three the entire game), before then scoring. There were no Syracuse FTs in that stretch, it was all the offense making shots (albeit the final one by Gillon being a prayer), against a defense that stayed in a man-to-man that it simply could not play with any degree of effectiveness because of the foul trouble.
For your listening pleasure...
This weeks NCAA Hoops Podcast, with Brad Powers and myself, is up -
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