Point Blank – January 18, 2017
Using the Depth Gauge on FSU and CSU…Is Florida State a contender or a pretender…What now for Colorado State (10 – 3 = not enough guys for good practices)…
There are a couple of prime situations tonight’s NCAA board that bring college basketball’s “Depth Gauge” into play, another of those important elements in setting power ratings that brings its own array of subtleties into play. So let’s get to work…
Item: Is Florida State a Contender or Pretender
Here’s the gist - having quality depth is never a bad thing, but sometimes it can turn the results into a Rorschach blot. This may be the case with the Seminoles, who don’t have a player on their roster that has ever appeared in an NCAA tournament game, yet are showing the game results that indicate Sweet 16 or better ability. Win outright at Virginia, roll Duke (albeit without Amile Jefferson), Wake Forest and Virginia Tech all by at least 15 points in the first three ACC home games, and that upside is apparent. It is how those scores got put together that matters.
Leonard Hamilton may be working with more quality depth than any coach in the land this season, a rotation that can legitimately go 12 deep, and through the first five ACC games 10 of those players are going at least 10 minutes per game. You can do wonders with that in terms of wearing down the opposition, and that is part of why the Seminoles are #13 in the nation in offensive possession length, getting shots up in just 14.8 seconds.
But might there be a downside that we see in settings like tonight, when they face a Notre Dame team that is not just good, but good at an entirely different pace, the Fighting Irish #291 in average possession length on offense? While FSU did survive a similar matchup in the win at Virginia there is a key to put out there for the eye test – while depth has its natural advantages, one of the disadvantages can be chemistry. When it is a close game late against a quality opponent, has the front-line group amassed enough floor minutes to have developed the chemistry of their opponents?
Hence, why this particular matchup brings a fascination. In VJ Beachem, Bonzie Colson, Matt Farrell and Steve Vastruia, Notre Dame has four players that go more than 30 minutes per game. Florida State does not have any. It does mean an advantage in terms of physical freshness for the Seminoles, but is at the expense of Hamilton’s “final five” on the court in the end-game not having as much cohesion against this type of opponent?
There is also an issue come March, when success is much more about how good your front line players are, rather than depth. NCAA tournament games are spread out so that physical fatigue is rarely a factor, especially given the absurd length of the television timeouts in those games (my standard line had been that you could show an entire Seinfeld re-run during one of them; I am not sure if that reference is contemporary enough in 2017). FSU is accomplishing much through depth now, but is there enough high-end talent to advance?
There are flaws on the edges already visible. Though five ACC games they are making a dismal 63.2 percent of their FT attempts, and while Xavier Rathan-Mayes has been strong with the ball, 22 assists vs. eight turnovers, all other FSU players have 44 assists vs. 59 turnovers in those league games. That particular category can be an issue when so many players are in the rotation, and they don’t have a great feel for each other.
There is plenty to see in this matchup tonight, and while watching there is something I will put into play for a small flutter – Notre Dame Money Line at +220 or better. If the Seminoles play well, the points being offered may not matter anyway. But if it is close late the chemistry of the Fighting Irish could have an edge in the latter stages, and this is also Mike Brey at his best – over the past three seasons the Fighting Irish are 6-4 ATS as ACC road dogs, but specifically note that all six of the successes were outright wins, including such tough venues as Duke, Louisville and North Carolina. Trace Brey back through the Big East years, and you will find his ability to win games like this outright to match any coach in the land.
Item: What now for Colorado State
At the other end of the depth spectrum is Colorado State, and there are particular power ratings issues in play right now. The Rams were a part of the weekend thread discussion prior to their Saturday game vs. New Mexico, and then some follow-up here on Monday because of the rather awkward aftermath of that game.
Here is the base issue – Larry Eustachy found out after exams were graded in December that Che Bob, Kimani Jackson and Devocio Butler did not grade out well enough to be eligible for the spring semester, which started this week. While that trio only combined for eight starts, they were prime contributors in the rotation. What Eustachy chose to do was keep playing them in the early Mountain West Conference games, though reducing their minutes, but then with a week off prior to facing New Mexico he opted to go with what his rotation would be for the remainder of the season, and sat all three of them. That left only seven available players, and the result against the Lobos was ugly, an 84-71 loss in which the Rams allowed 55.6 percent shooting.
Now the question becomes how to adjust the power ratings going forward, because it is the Colorado State team from Saturday that comes front-and-center, and not the one that opened 3-1 in the MWC.
Here is something to keep in mind that is not always a prime thought when cluster departures like this happen – in going from a 10-player rotation to just seven, Eustachy really gets hit on the practice floor. Notions of going 5-on-5 are out the window, and in terms of game prep he no longer has a group that can run the plays of the opposing team. The reality is that the Rams have lost more than what the statistics of the three missing players would indicate.
So what about tonight at Fresno State? The Bulldogs bring an issue of their own – as of this morning there is still no clarification on the status of 6-9 senior Cullen Russo, who has some academic issues that remain unresolved. Russo had played 28.5 minutes per game prior to sitting out against Boise State on Saturday, averaging 10.2 points and 6.1 rebounds.
Note that Fresno played well against Boise without him, using a smaller lineup and rolling up a season-high 89 points, although some of that can be attributed to what has become a lax Bronco defense of late (New Mexico scored 81 on them in Boise last night).
So what is the word this morning on Russo? From HC Rodney Terry – “The window is really not on our timetable. A lot of times you have to play it in terms of what needs to get done.”
Will Russo play tonight? Is Fresno fine without him, or was that just a one-off vs. Boise? The power ratings process is never an easy one, but the same conundrums that each of us have roll across the entire marketplace, and it is in doing the diligence to outwork the rest of the market that profits get made.
In the Sights, Wednesday NBA…
There has been quite a surge to the Over in the early Wednesday markets for the Thunder/Warriors clash, to the point at which 108 has now become available for the #517 Oklahoma City Team Total Under (10:35 Eastern), and that is more than fair value to get in play (at worst you should be able to have 107 as a win number).
As noted in bucking the Thunder in this spot on Monday it is a truly ridiculous schedule cycle they are in, this being the 16th straight court change, and not once throughout the entire stretch have they had back-to-back days off. The energy was dragging at the Staples Center vs. the Clippers, especially without Steven Adams, who is not with the team tonight, and while the adrenaline that can come with facing Kevin Durant in front of the national cameras may only create a spark at the start of the game, and not something they can sustain.
Meanwhile the Warriors are set to play about as well on the defensive end as a team can in terms of the scheduling lay-out – this is only the fourth game in 10 days of a comfy home-stand, and in Monday’s rout of the Cavaliers we saw the best GS defense of the season, in particular noting that LeBron James and Kyrie Irving each had the dubious ratio of six turnovers vs. only two assists. The Warriors had 10 steals and 11 blocked shots, and while their mental focus may not be quite as sharp as it was on Monday, their physical freshness can turn this into another solid outing on the defensive end.
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