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PB: A Tutorial on Trophies

PB: A Tutorial on Trophies
Offtrackbath
Joined: 09/09/2011
Posts: 32
Practice Squad
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Dave

See anything in the first half for Cleveland? Could the travel woes make it tough for Portland to get started or does that become more important in the second half? The -4's are gone.

pappahoops
Joined: 01/10/2016
Posts: 326
College Varsity
Not Ranked

Good Morning David:

Just wanted to let our community know that matchupcenter.com still has the complimentary offer available.

I invite you all to take a look around.  Watch the video which will give you insight on how to best use the handicapping tools for College Basketball.

username  phdpregame

password  phdpregame.

Feedback, questions or comments should be sent to cs@matchupcenter.com

Thanks again David  

fortunaught
Joined: 04/05/2013
Posts: 703
All American
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Dave, this is such good stuff, and serves as a poignant reminder.

1. We want to believe in heroes, because if they indeed exist perhaps some day we might become one.

2. We want to believe in Good/Bad because that allows us to grade ourselves on the curve. If there are villains, then we can feel good about ourselves because we are at least better than they are.

I believe one of the most important notions that has fueled human development in a vast array of settings; from language to oral traditions, to nation state forming, is the idea that in order for there to be an 'US', there has to be a 'THEM'. A reality that is equal parts useful as it is destructive, and likely more ingrained in each of us than we could ever properly strip away for analysis.  

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 11877
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Offtrackbath

See anything in the first half for Cleveland? Could the travel woes make it tough for Portland to get started or does that become more important in the second half? The -4's are gone.

That's a damn good question, but the situation is so unique I am unsure of the answer. The markets are now flocking to the notions that are in play (you could have laid -3.5 at even money for a nice sized wager this morning), so the value has shrunk, but I am torn between whether the Trail Blazers come out with an early jolt of energy, which could subside, or if they have a difficult time getting loose in the first place.

Of course I can easily say that we can watch this game unfold and learn from it for the future, but how many times will we ever see this again? But I would not fault anyone for laying some -2.5 for the First Half.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 11877
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

fortunaught

Dave, this is such good stuff, and serves as a poignant reminder.

1. We want to believe in heroes, because if they indeed exist perhaps some day we might become one.

2. We want to believe in Good/Bad because that allows us to grade ourselves on the curve. If there are villains, then we can feel good about ourselves because we are at least better than they are.

I believe one of the most important notions that has fueled human development in a vast array of settings; from language to oral traditions, to nation state forming, is the idea that in order for there to be an 'US', there has to be a 'THEM'. A reality that is equal parts useful as it is destructive, and likely more ingrained in each of us than we could ever properly strip away for analysis.  

I think the difficulty we are collectively finding in the early part of the 21st century was that so much of recent history has been extreme US vs. THEM that many societal segments have become imbalanced in terms of development. Ideally there is the generation of an US first, and once there is some clarity of vision on that front, there is a visibility of who THEM are. Instead we have cultural institutions that have THEM in the process at far too early of a stage, which leads to a fragile and incomplete development of US.

It is a fascinating study, which I am fortunate to be involved in across the non-box score segments of the day, with the unique juxtaposition of two political settings across the past 24 hours showing a rather unsettling tale of our place and time. But I will leave it at that, since the various components of those cultural landscapes are countless times murkier than the scoreboards of sport...

hute92
Joined: 05/21/2014
Posts: 76
Prep School
Not Ranked

Dave,

How good are the Gophers? They were a recent “wait and see” topic on the forum after demonstrating the ability to win a tough conference road game at Purdue as they played above their maturity level. Since then, they were able to beat market expectations by 7.5 @ Northwestern, followed by a 10 point win vs. Ohio State. Tom Izzo pointed out yesterday that his team typically opens the season slow in Big 10 road games which may have contributed to the 15 point lead the Gophers were able to build the last time around. Having that lead evaporate and turn into an OT 1-point home loss could have revenge implications tonight, but I’m curious as to how the Gophers handle being ranked nationally (No.24) for the first time in four years. Coach Patino seems to be saying the right things to keep his team focused, and this group has grown very close throughout the past year, humbled by embarrassing allegations and suspensions resulting in an 8-23 (2-16) record. Kenpom has Minnesota #12 in adjD/ #85 in adjO, and MSU #35 in adjD/ #88 in adjO suggesting these two be close to even on a neutral. Wondering if +4 is worth a look.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 11877
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

hute92

How good are the Gophers? They were a recent “wait and see” topic on the forum after demonstrating the ability to win a tough conference road game at Purdue as they played above their maturity level. Since then, they were able to beat market expectations by 7.5 @ Northwestern, followed by a 10 point win vs. Ohio State. Tom Izzo pointed out yesterday that his team typically opens the season slow in Big 10 road games which may have contributed to the 15 point lead the Gophers were able to build the last time around. Having that lead evaporate and turn into an OT 1-point home loss could have revenge implications tonight, but I’m curious as to how the Gophers handle being ranked nationally (No.24) for the first time in four years. Coach Patino seems to be saying the right things to keep his team focused, and this group has grown very close throughout the past year, humbled by embarrassing allegations and suspensions resulting in an 8-23 (2-16) record. Kenpom has Minnesota #12 in adjD/ #85 in adjO, and MSU #35 in adjD/ #88 in adjO suggesting these two be close to even on a neutral. Wondering if +4 is worth a look.

It is a fascinating game to handicap, but also a precarious one, which is my way of saying I need a little more to work with, the first chimes ringing at +5. Sparty managed to win that road contest without Miles Bridges, who has since returned, and note that despite State getting off to a slow start this season there is the typical talent we associate with the program - it is just at a different stage right now. In freshmen Bridges, Nick Ward, Cassius Winston and Joshua Langford there is a tremendous corps for Tom Izzo to build on, but while there is a lot of upside to the talent, they are not "Spartan tough" yet - it was rather shocking to see Penn State beat them by 11 on the boards at the Palestra on Saturday. I do believe State will get a little better game-by-game, while the Gophers may already be playing about as well as they are capable of, so I don't want to get caught in a reversing pendulum here, but some +5 will go into pocket if it shows.

JBone_Texas
Joined: 10/01/2014
Posts: 2463
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Hmm.  New England Pats have played the easiest schedule in the league this year, particularly easy for the defense.  They played only 6 teams with a positive offensive DVOA, one was Pittsburgh led by Landry Jones, one was Miami with Matt Moore, and 2 were against one dimensional division rival Buffalo.

The avg offense faced was -7.1% DVOA, then next easiest schedule for a defense was Tenn at -4.2%.  Put another way that is like a team facing the equivalent of the SF 49er offense for all 16 games of the regular season.

Worse yet, it escalated as the season went on.  Other than the barely positive 0.9% DVOA (that is with Tannehill) Miami team with Matt Moore at the helm they have not faced a team with a positive offensive DVOA in 2 1/2 months (pre-bye week Buffalo).

No change this week going against the -21.4% DVOA Texan's.  But good chance the AFC Championship and/or Superbowl this changes.

Any precedent for this?  The Football Outsiders stuff is suppose to take some of this into account but what is the cumulative affect of this and do we even have a precedent.  Typically even with an easy schedule you get the occasional game every 3 or 4 weeks that gives you a challenge and feedback for things to work on.

My guess is the ceiling for the defense isn't very far away but the floor could be quite a fall.  And god forbid if they were to lose anyone in the secondary that has been healthy all year, especially the veteran star safeties Chung or McCourty.

Rebus
Joined: 06/14/2016
Posts: 1102
Professional
Not Ranked

Golf - BMW SA Open

Starts: Thursday - Midnight ET - 9pm Pacific Time

Jamie Donaldson: Donaldson returns from injury after 3 months

"Jamie Donaldson heads to the BMW South African Open at Glendower GC in desperate need of arresting a poor run of results. 

Fourth on the Race to Dubai rankings in 2013, fifth in 2014, including a starring role in the European Ryder Cup victory, life was pretty sweet for the Welshman. He then opted to try out the PGA Tour and the split schedule has not quite worked, not aided by a self-inflicted gardening injury exactly 12 months ago. He’s twice failed to retain his PGA card and has followed those two stellar campaigns in Europe with 48th and then 87th last year. T10 in May’s Irish Open and T26 in June’s St Jude Classic he is just 3-for-11 since then, with a best of T42 and not been seen since withdrawing from the British Masters in early October. He’s 11-for-15 in South Africa with six top 20 finishes and a best of T2 in the 2013 Nedbank Challenge"

Beware the injured Golfer

Golf is always priced on recent form and Jamie Donaldson doesn't have any so there is no reason for bookmakers to be worried about putting big prices next to the Welshmans name this week. Or is there? He is a former world number 23 so back in 2014 he would have been going off +2500 in this company. Donaldson secured the winning point for Europe in the 2014 Ryder Cup, with a wedge shot onto the 15th green, beating Keegan Bradley 4 & 3. You won't find many players in this field with that sort of pedigree so the only question is, how is he playing? According to reports he is back hitting it well so now is the time to strike while he is being priced on his form in an injury ridden 2016. There is no market that I would not recommend a bet on him. If you can find an outright price, Top 5, Top 10 or even Top 20 then put something in play. 

Westgate - Jamie Donaldson (outright winner) 100/1 (+9050 The Greek)

5Dimes - South African Open - 1st Rnd Leader - Jamie Donaldson +8000

5Dimes - South African Open - Top 10 - Jamie Donaldson +750

5Dimes - *****1st Rnd 3 Balls   Donaldson/Porteous/Southgate +158*******

Pinnacle - Jamie Donaldson to beat Matthew Southgate (Tourn) -118 

5Dimes - 12:00AM 7490 Jamie Donaldson to beat Keith Horne (Tourn) -1½ -110

5Dimes - 12:00AM 7490 Jamie Donaldson to beat Keith Horne (1st Rnd) -125

BetChris - Jamie Donaldson to beat Matthew Southgate (1st Rnd) -120 

***** = best bet out there

 

 

 

JBM
Joined: 10/19/2010
Posts: 276
College Varsity
Not Ranked

Anyone like the thunder to get some revenge tonight from 12/29 beat down Memphis gave em?

I'm seeing OKC -5/-110 201.5 and it seems a little short.

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