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PB: What a Bettor Better Know - NFL Wild Cards

PB: What a Bettor Better Know - NFL Wild Cards
David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 11501
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Top 50 Contributor

fortunaught

Good morning Dave, and thanks for a great jukebox selection, really enjoyable call. Like yourself, I've been trying to find 

I was hoping to get the Hokies laying anything less than 6 at home tonight, and got my wish and then some with 3.5 being the widely available. I was hoping to see if you had any words of caution for why it might be a good idea to pump the brakes, because this is feeling like a time to take a position and make a cash grab, hoping that I'm not trying to manufacture a result of my envisioning, and simply jousting at windmills with an old Fender guitar. Many thanks in advance. And in case you had not reason to see this yet, I think you might enjoy the run up to NYE from MSG. It's a touch long, and sadly requires viewing rather than just listening, so is probably best saved for when you have a down 30 minutes, (I'm hoping such things exist for you now that football is just about over), because this is one of the most remarkable thing the boys have ever pulled off visually. Hope you enjoy. https://youtu.be/gbMTa1yeSyw

Thank you sir, and there are indeed some windows when other forms of entertainment can be plugged in - much of Friday afternoon is spent looking for the appropriate background as the Saturday board gets whittled down.

As noted a few posts above the most recent Syracuse/Virginia Tech results are so erratic that I likely won't be involved there, although a reversal of the most recent form would not be a shock. Williams has game-planned well against the Syracuse zone since coming to Tech, a trio of tense losses in which the Hokies easily got the money, but while the VT talent is decent, this is still a precocious group that may have inconsistency be a part of their makeup all season.

teaserdude007
Joined: 12/27/2011
Posts: 261
College Recruit
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benjy

pappahoops

David:

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pappahoops

login not working using phdpregame

I tried as well, not functioning.

pappahoops
Joined: 01/10/2016
Posts: 305
College Varsity
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teaserdude007

benjy

pappahoops

David:

We are offering Complimentary access to matchupcenter.com to your readers for a limited time.

No Credit Card is required.  

They just need to use the following sign-on info:

username: phdpregame

Password: phdpregame

Make sure you look at the video on how to best use site.  Most profitable 8 minutes you will invest today!

pappahoops

login not working using phdpregame

I tried as well, not functioning.

  I will look into.  In the meantime use   PEOTUS   as username and PEOTUS as PW

A little humor is necessary for this login...

SportsHec8
Joined: 01/13/2014
Posts: 6031
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Top 150 Contributor

I ran my own stats regarding the teams Green Bay has faced in the last 7 games that I'll post later (trouble posing the chart from my phone) but I saw this on twitter and tells the same story

#Packers opponent rank in points/game during 7-win streak:

NYG 26

DET 20

MIN 23

CHI 28t

SEA 18

HOU 28t

PHI 16

#Cowboys points/game rank: 5

The packers did face some good defenses but they were able to wear those D's down because the opposing offenses stunk. No such thing come Sunday

pappahoops
Joined: 01/10/2016
Posts: 305
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pappahoops

teaserdude007

benjy

pappahoops

David:

We are offering Complimentary access to matchupcenter.com to your readers for a limited time.

No Credit Card is required.  

They just need to use the following sign-on info:

username: phdpregame

Password: phdpregame

Make sure you look at the video on how to best use site.  Most profitable 8 minutes you will invest today!

pappahoops

login not working using phdpregame

I tried as well, not functioning.

  I will look into.  In the meantime use   PEOTUS   as username and PEOTUS as PW

A little humor is necessary for this login...

  Both logins work now.  Sorry for confusion.

sportsinvestingtoday
Joined: 10/25/2014
Posts: 1036
Pro Draft Prospect
Not Ranked

Hi David,

interested to get your thoughts on backing Missouri tonight at home vs. Auburn.

Auburn will be without Daniel Purifoy; Purifoy will not make the trip to Missouri after suffering a sprained left ankle in Saturday’s loss to Ole Miss, meaning the road Tigers will have to replace 13.7 points, 5.8 rebounds and a team-high 29.1 minutes per game.

“Danjel is an integral part of our scheme because he is such a unique pick-and-pop four-man, because he can do things inside and out offensively and defensively — he’s a huge part of what we do,” coach Bruce Pearl said. “We’re going to have to make some adjustments.”

The Tigers rank second in the SEC in field-goal defense (39.5 percent) and 3-point defense (29.3 points), and could find success vs. Auburn whom only three double-digit scorers, one of them being Purifoy so his lost could potentially be a damaging blow here.

Conversely, accordingly to kenpom, Missouri has the 2nd ranked 2PT% offense in the SEC (54.2%), and they will face the 14th ranked 2PT% defense in the SEC (56.8%), with F Purifoy out, Missouri may have even more scoring success in the post.

Despite, losing at Georgia last time out, Third-year Mizzou coach Kim Anderson said he was pleased with the team’s energy and effort.  “I thought we took a step forward,” Anderson said. “I thought we responded better. I knew their crowd would get into it."

this could be a good spot for Mizzou to get a win, interested to get your thoughts on this one.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 11501
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

sportsinvestingtoday

interested to get your thoughts on backing Missouri tonight at home vs. Auburn.

Auburn will be without Daniel Purifoy; Purifoy will not make the trip to Missouri after suffering a sprained left ankle in Saturday’s loss to Ole Miss, meaning the road Tigers will have to replace 13.7 points, 5.8 rebounds and a team-high 29.1 minutes per game.

“Danjel is an integral part of our scheme because he is such a unique pick-and-pop four-man, because he can do things inside and out offensively and defensively — he’s a huge part of what we do,” coach Bruce Pearl said. “We’re going to have to make some adjustments.”

The Tigers rank second in the SEC in field-goal defense (39.5 percent) and 3-point defense (29.3 points), and could find success vs. Auburn whom only three double-digit scorers, one of them being Purifoy so his lost could potentially be a damaging blow here.

Conversely, accordingly to kenpom, Missouri has the 2nd ranked 2PT% offense in the SEC (54.2%), and they will face the 14th ranked 2PT% defense in the SEC (56.8%), with F Purifoy out, Missouri may have even more scoring success in the post.

Despite, losing at Georgia last time out, Third-year Mizzou coach Kim Anderson said he was pleased with the team’s energy and effort.  “I thought we took a step forward,” Anderson said. “I thought we responded better. I knew their crowd would get into it."

this could be a good spot for Mizzou to get a win, interested to get your thoughts on this one.

One of the things I do to shorten the board many nights on the college hardwoods is to spend less time on pick'em games in the "C vs. C" classification, since those teams are not accustomed to winning, and often play worse in the latter stages when they do get in a close game, instead of better. These two fit the mold - Auburn plays hard under Bruce Pearl, but so much of it is fingernails-on-chalkboard basketball, while Missouri is 24-53 in the Kim Anderson era, and the Tigers often look timid when a game is on the line - I can understand playing poorly against the likes of UNC-Central, Eastern Illinois and Lipscomb, but at some point they are still supposed to step up and win the games outright. Instead Mizzou lost to those three, which raises serious questions about trusting them to win to get the money, rather than to "hang around" (there could be some underdog bets on them later, and I would like them better +8 or so at Auburn than +1 at home, which would bring a cushion against the potential end-game foibles). Games like this make me feel like I am laying -115 instead of -110, because of the added randomness.

benjy
Joined: 03/07/2015
Posts: 1486
Professional
Not Ranked

Here are some notes from Greg Cosell on the Green Bay Dallas matchup:

Talk about Power Football: with multiple TE's Dallas ran 22 times, for 163 yards (7.4/rush) vs Green Bay in Week 6.

Packers defense had issues vs Dallas in week 6 - On 1st down, allowed 125 yards on 19 runs (6.6 YPC) & 8.3 yards per play blitzing

More GB Defensive issues vs Dallas in week 6 - on relevant snaps: 67% completions and 8.5 yards per play in zone coverage and 10 yards per play vs 2+ TE's

SportsHec8
Joined: 01/13/2014
Posts: 6031
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Any idea what the packers TT will be? Simple math to me says it's 24 but I gotta imagine that over will get pounded.

With Claiborne, McClain and Lawrence all returning, it's the first time we see this defense healthy since October.

If it's 24 or 24.5 I'll happily take the under.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 11501
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

SportsHec8

Any idea what the packers TT will be? Simple math to me says it's 24 but I gotta imagine that over will get pounded.

With Claiborne, McClain and Lawrence all returning, it's the first time we see this defense healthy since October.

If it's 24 or 24.5 I'll happily take the under.

It will still likely be until at least Thursday before we see some major shops come forward, but one of the better places out there would be using Green Bay 23.5 Over -115 if they had to open today.

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