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PB: What a Bettor Better Know - NFL Wild Cards

PB: What a Bettor Better Know - NFL Wild Cards
pappahoops
Joined: 01/10/2016
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David:

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Wolfdakota
Joined: 01/23/2014
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David Malinsky
DeShaun Watson’s performance against the Alabama defense in those two games will be remembered across the annals of college football lore, a remarkable 825 passing yards with seven TDs, and 116 rushing yards with another score. So we elevate today to stay on that them. With a lot of ground to cover today, moving across the NFL, NCAA hoops and NBA there is a particular tribute to greatness that comes into play, as the jukebox gets plugged in for some background to help you through. It is the return of Myles Davis to Xavier basketball tonight that creates the spark, so we go to the legendary Miles Davis, live from Paris a few months before his passing in 1991, joined by Kenny Garrett among others…


Some fascinating take aways from last nights game. Most importantly, going out to hurt a guy clearly works . It sure looked to me that after Alabama purposely tried to rip Deshaun's head off, that Deshaun was questioning whether this one game was worth effecting an NFL career. Especially one that has the potential to be at least moderately successful. It took him a while but then it looked like the competitive juices took over. Incredible handicapping opportunity in a setting like this again. A superstars last game prior to a professional career and the opponent making it clear that they are there to hurt you.

Dave, you also brought front and center the fact that Alabama had a chance to practice against a mobile qb the entire year which gave them an edge in defending that they didn't have last year. For the most part, that seemed to play out almost perfectly until Deshaun simply decide to outwill Bama. Even then he didn't seem to be able to break a run whenever he wanted, everything was hard gained. With that said, Hurts isn't Deshaun and never will be so there is only so far that "practice" can take you. For instance, Deshaun's TD run was something very few people on the planet could accomplish so even thought they may have seen some of the speed, you really can't practice for that kind of athleticism. Whereas a Clemson practices against that kind of athleticism every day so they may know they need to go that extra 1/10 of a percent to make sure he can't tightrope into the endzone.


Something else that stood out to me that I thought was really interesting. Bama had the turnovers they've had all season yet none of them went anywhere after they turned the ball over and then the drives off those turnovers stalled as well. Is ity possible Clemson practiced turning into a defense after the offense turned the ball over knowing that it was going to happen? Could it be that the offense was so used to the defense scoring that they didn't have as many opportunities to finish drives after a turnover as they normally might and as a result were a bit stymied after a turnover and having to actually go out onto the field? Who would have thought that having your defense turn into an offense after a turnover could be a negative if it's the norm?

Most importantly, I think the coaching style here was amplified. One guy believes in love and belief and always being positive, the other believes in motivation through fear and dictatorship. Could it be there is now an edge to the latter that wasn't there 20 years ago. Urban certainly seems to fall into the latter. It's hard to believe that Saban's coaching staff feels as positively about him as Dabo's. The mentality of people as a whole has changed and I think it's in a good way, but it seems that despite being outplayed for the most part last night, that positivity and belief was far more powerful than being better and/or not making mistakes. Clemson also wore them down, but it wouldn't have mattered if any of the 3 or 4 turnovers had turned into some points rather than no points. A different point of view might be, rather than all the focus being on not making mistakes (Bama), maybe the focus should be on overcoming those mistakes when they happen because they are unavoidable (Clemson). Maybe we can start looking at that as an angle. Okay, this team turns the ball over quite a bit but for some reason it rarely turns into points. Maybe they actually believe, and to some extent, practice to deal with the turnovers rather than preaching no turnovers to the exclusion of all else? I wish I had the time, it would be interesting to track many teams and see if some stand out in the negative plays not having as much as of an impact as the average. Then take a look at the overall coaching philosophy.

I'm not sure any of that helps with a handicap all that much, but I thought it was really fascinating how the game played out.

One last thing, Bama had a few less mistakes on offense and did seem a little more cohesive with Sark than with Lane, but it didn't look like he had nearly the comfort of Lane to call the plays seamlessly. It may point to my theory that the "firing" may really have been more childish than anything to do with an actual belief that Sark was going to be able to offer more. There were moments in the game where I didn't think Bama was going to be able to score again. They ultimately did, but it sure looked like they had absolutely no answer and absolutely no one that could come up with an answer for long stretches of time. Fortunately, Bama's d is more than good enough that you don't necessarily need an offensive answer but it wound up being the difference in the game especially after great turnovers forced by Bama.

Coolfish7
Joined: 03/19/2016
Posts: 78
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Another interesting aspect of the game last night was the play count.  It seems that there should have been opportunity for both Clemson and Over tickets in live wagering once the play count started to get to the high 70s, with the Bama D getting tired.  And in general, I'm wondering if anyone in the group has looked at specifically live wagers vs play counts  for football, since it seems that it should provide a significant edge?

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 11836
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

gtODD30

Dave - Thoughts on FSU -1.5 vs Duke tonight.  Duke's first real road test without coach K and the Seminole crowd has already sold out (I know student section is).  No Coach k and I believe Jefferson is out again as well.

FSU is in the middle of a 6 game stretch that I don't know how many teams can come close to comparing to schedule wise.  I think Coach Hamilton has them focused as they haven't had to travel this calendar year and they always want to beat Duke.

I like the FSU athleticism to be able to come out and attack, and be aggressive instead of timid, which sometimes happens when teams face Duke. Where there is hesitation is their poise to make the proper basketball plays at the end of a close game. They made strides in that regard against Florida and Virginia, so they are coming close to being trustworthy. I gave a go at +1, so from a value standpoint this is not too far away.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 11836
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benjy

What do you make of the Syracuse improvements in the home wins over Miami and Pittsburgh?  Do you think they have "gotten it" regarding the Boeheim 2-3 zone, or was the recent performance just random noise?  They travel to Blacksburg today to face Virginia Tech, and Tech laying 3 looks interesting.

When I put Syracuse/St. John's, Syracuse/Boston College, Syracuse/Miami and Syracuse/Pittsburgh into the data base and ask for a conclusion, the program tells me to turn it into an "Etch-a-Sketch", shake it up and start all over again. And then of course there comes: Virginia Tech 89 Duke 75; Virginia Tech 78 NC State 104; Virginia Tech 78-93 from the other side of the equation. I just don't have a clue there...
David Malinsky
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pappahoops

David:

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pappahoops

Thank you sir, and let's all get in there to kick the tires around - the better the fine tuning the better it can be for each of us.

fortunaught
Joined: 04/05/2013
Posts: 702
All American
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Good morning Dave, and thanks for a great jukebox selection, really enjoyable call. Like yourself, I've been trying to find reasons to fade Syracuse in this uneven season during the twilight of the Boeheim era.If you get a chance to watch his postgame presser after the Pitt game, you will get a great sense of why it's time for him to hand over the reigns to Hopkins, because at this point he truly can't see the forest from the trees, as he demonstrated in getting into a pissing match with a reporter who wrote a reasonable column about what we have all seen as a decline in the last few seasons. Which apparently really irked Boeheim based on the teams Final Four run last year, calling that team one of the five best he's coached there. I don't know that I've ever seen a coach discuss the outcome being more important than the process so blatantly and pathetically, and somewhere near Westwood, coach Wooden was shifting in his sleep.

The Canes seemed like a very appropriate time to step in, but alas and alack. That was followed by a home game against Pitt, that was happily a stay away and watch, but unfolded along very similar lines, with the home team making shots early from a handful of different positions on the floor and allowing them to establish a cushion, feel good about themselves, and pull away with little sweat from a team that historically would have put up more of a fight under such circumstances. Which brings us to a game that I have had circled since before the season began. Buzz Williams has always been one of my favorite coaches in any sport, and I really respect and admire the fact that he took the risk to head up a nontraditional basketball program, wisely seeing the potential it afforded, and perhaps the length of rope that came with the job.

I really think there is a big difference between playing loose at home and making shots on your home floor for a team that still doesn't really know who it is, versus playing a Buzz Williams team in need of a win in a remote, dark hostile gym. Those last two home games feeling more like NBA scrimmages between two bottom feeder squads, which presumably suits Syracuse and likely their practice habits to a T. I'm not overly concerned with what the Orange bring to the table in terms of added confidence for Gillon solidifying his place in the starters role, or in White assuming the mantle of alpha scorer along with Lydon. If those components burn me tonight, I can live with that. What is slightly more concerning for me is the recent efforts of the Hokies at the Noles and Wolpack, games where the flow might have gotten away from them, and exploited their lack of shot making to reel an opponent back in.

I was hoping to get the Hokies laying anything less than 6 at home tonight, and got my wish and then some with 3.5 being the widely available. I was hoping to see if you had any words of caution for why it might be a good idea to pump the brakes, because this is feeling like a time to take a position and make a cash grab, hoping that I'm not trying to manufacture a result of my own envisioning, and simply jousting at windmills with an old Fender guitar. Many thanks in advance. And in case you had not reason to see this yet, I think you might enjoy the run up to NYE from MSG. It's a touch long, and sadly requires viewing rather than just listening, so is probably best saved for when you have a down 30 minutes, (I'm hoping such things exist for you now that football is just about over), because this is one of the most remarkable thing the boys have ever pulled off visually. Hope you enjoy. https://youtu.be/gbMTa1yeSyw

benjy
Joined: 03/07/2015
Posts: 1545
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pappahoops

David:

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David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
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Coolfish7

Another interesting aspect of the game last night was the play count.  It seems that there should have been opportunity for both Clemson and Over tickets in live wagering once the play count started to get to the high 70s, with the Bama D getting tired.  And in general, I'm wondering if anyone in the group has looked at specifically live wagers vs play counts  for football, since it seems that it should provide a significant edge?

One of the items SportHec noted so well at halftime, as part of the Monday thread, was the Clemson was already up to 45 snaps, and was also getting the ball to begin the second half, which was going to create the opportunity for the Alabama defense to wear down. That indeed happened - for the second season in a row the Tide defense had very little left in the tank on the final Tiger drives.

DJ Sound
Joined: 12/28/2015
Posts: 16
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David Malinsky

pappahoops

David:

We are offering Complimentary access to matchupcenter.com to your readers for a limited time.

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pappahoops

Thank you sir, and let's all get in there to kick the tires around - the better the fine tuning the better it can be for each of us.

  David:  The site is incredibly rich in useful information in easily readable formats!  I have been with them since you mentioned them for MLB.  Thanks for heads up!

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