Point Blank – December 1, 2016
Bradford/Prescott in the Thursday spotlight…On Doc’s bedside manner…You can dink and dunk the Cowboy defense…
The biggest games bring the most intriguing handicaps on the Thursday board, and potentially some edges that we can cash in on. So time to get to work.
Item: Sam Bradford’s 77.9 completion rate the last four games only leads to the sound of one hand clapping
One of the notions kicked around here ever so often, and also something that comes up in the thread discussions, is that I am involved in some non-sports research projects, some of that work helping to hone the skills needed in breaking down box scores, but in truth more of it being how the idiosyncrasies of sports helps to shape methods that can be effective elsewhere. If someone wishes to learn about logic and perspective in analyzing data, a year around the betting board outcomes would provide a terrific education. Which takes us to Bradford.
Over the last four games he has completed 77.9 percent of his pass attempts, 113-145, which would seem to be a sparkling achievement. In three of those four games it was 77.5 percent or better. Those happen to be the four games in which Pat Shurmur was the OC, taking over following the departure of Norv Turner. Only two of those pass attempts were intercepted. Rather special, isn’t it? Except it wasn’t.
In those four games the Vikings went 1-3, the offense only scoring eight TDs. And to put the completion rate into perspective, while Bradford was connecting far better than league average, the production was worse – a half yard per pass less every time he threw the ball than the league average -
Comp% YPP
Bradford L4 77.9 6.7
NFL 63.4 7.2
Hence the headache in terms of scoring touchdowns.
It wasn’t that Bradford was so sharp, it was that the offense was throwing passes that were going to bring a high completion rate, but not necessarily great production. The best way to grasp that was a tweet that made its way across a thread last week, following the Viking loss to Detroit
The problem right now is that the Minnesota offense is literally boxed-in; without a downfield threat defenses are crowding the line of scrimmage, which has also curtailed the ground game to the tune of just 2.8 per rush, a pace that will set NFL season records if it continues.
Item: But things might not be so easy for Dak Prescott either
One of the prime notions entering this season was whether the combination of one of the league’s best defenses, plus the debut of U.S. Bank Stadium, might lead to a special home field advantage for Minnesota, in particular the difficulties of opposing offenses to hear the snap counts. That has played out – the Vikings are 4-1 at home, the only loss coming in OT after Detroit’s Matt Prater made a 58-yard field goal on the final play of regulation to extend it.
So let’s establish some perspective on how difficult it has been for opposing QBs to operate here, using Passer Rating as the measure:
2016 Passer Ratings
NFL Average 89.5
@Vikings 65.2
That is a significant gap, but it isn’t as though one or two games carried a lot of weight – across the board opponents have struggled -
QB Season @Vikings
Rodgers 97.8 66.9
Manning 90.1 63.3
Osweiler 72.2 56.1
Stafford 99.3 87.6
Palmer 83.3 63.3
Prescott has indeed been special in compiling his 108.6 rating. But to add perspective there, let’s look at the road defenses he has faced, using the current Football Outsiders adjusted charts -
Washington #26
San Francisco #29
Green Bay #17
Cleveland #32
Pittsburgh #11
That would make the average road opponent #23. Which makes this game worth coming back to in a moment, but first time to sort through a key matchup on the hardwoods…
Item: Will we see some fire from the Clippers tonight?
The Clippers had one of the most embarrassing end-games any good team will have all season at Brooklyn on Tuesday night, a 13-point lead entering the fourth quarter against the 4-12 Nets something that is not easy to screw up, unless you go out of your way to do it. LAC did, and while the cameras were able to catch Doc Rivers in a rage against the officials, which led him to getting tossed, his anger was turned up even more when it came to his own team afterwards -
“We just hadn't played well the other two [losses] but we came in the game with the right attitude. Tonight, we got good all of the sudden. We were walking around like we done something. And that bothers me. Because we've done crap. We haven't done crap. And for us to walk around against a team - to me, that is playing their hearts out every night to just win one game - for us to walk around like we have done something, it bothers me on a basketball level. I didn't like it.
“I thought we lost respect for the game. I thought we lost our humility. I thought we were playing great. We got up. We got cool. … We went Showtime and I think when that happens, you deserve to lose the game.”
Now the Clippers will be under the spotlight of playing the Cavaliers, which brings the issues into full view – it wasn’t just the collapse in Brooklyn, but the fact that it followed ugly losses to Indiana and Detroit in the prior two games, dropping them to 0-3 SU and ATS over the past week, the latter by a rather shocking 65.5 points. I had them graded as an “A” level team when this road trip began, and cannot recall the last time an A had three consecutive games in which they came up more than 15 points below the market expectations.
Here is the matchup intrigue for the setting – if the Clippers bring the fight, it will mean that LeBron James and Kyrie Irving will be each going up against one of the best defenders in the NBA at their position, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Chris Paul. And I am also wondering if the Cavaliers might bring a better defensive focus as well, after getting scorched 118-101 at Milwaukee on Tuesday.
Tyrann Lue made the claim that he was happy with the Cleveland Wednesday practice in the aftermath of that defeat, and you can see what he is having to work through - "When you have a team that's a championship team and you went to two straight Finals, you've been doing the same thing for three years, it gets redundant. With the team we have a bunch of veteran guys, rightfully so. But you still have to do the drills, continue to get better, you still have to go through offensive sets you've been working on, continuing to work on execution, and the guys know it so they get bored with it sometimes. Rightfully so."
This came after Lue got so upset with the flow at Milwaukee that he benched the entire starting cast with 3:49 remaining in the third quarter, not going to the usual reserve rotation, but instead to the bottom of the roster in sending out a quintet of DeAndre Liggins, Jordan McRae, Mike Dunleavy, James Jones and Chris Andersen.
This one is not quite at a “go” price point, with the Under needing to reach 216 to show for me, but in a high profile game that will draw some market activity that could get there later. If it does I will bite off a piece.
About Last Night…
The San Antonio First Half ticket at Dallas I put into play yesterday only came up a basket short, the Mavericks closing them out 5-0 over the final minute, but it was a bad idea, and goes to the heart of how difficult power rating the Spurs is going to be. On a night on which I expected Gregg Popovich to crack the whip, he took a far different direction.
Tony Parker, Pau Gasol and Manu Ginobli did not play, something I did not see coming. The Spurs were off Sunday/Monday, none of that trio played extended minutes in losing to Orlando on Tuesday, and the only game over the next four days is a home affair vs. Washington on Friday. There didn’t seem to be any particular reason to have them all sitting given the cycle, and that is going to cloud a lot of San Antonio handicaps throughout this season. Instead of being a model of consistency that can be trusted across a league that lacks many of them, the Spurs may end up in “The Drawer” on many occasions.
Now let’s get back to that NFL matchup in Minneapolis…
In the Sights, NFL…
The status of Mike Zimmer, who had eye surgery on Wednesday night, is still not known as I write this, but because Zimmer has taken part in the Vikings practices this week, and has such a veteran group of assistants on hand, his absence will not be enough to keep me from playing #302 Minnesota (8:25 Eastern), with low-vig +3 easy to find, and also some reasonable +3.5 (you can get one of the latter for -115 in multiple Nevada shops this morning).
Naturally the Viking defense is a key here, the opportunity to get this class in this price range something that is rare, and that price indeed matters – the Cowboys are being sold at premiums now. But for once the Minnesota offense can also work; while dink-and-dunk is going to be ineffective against much of the league, Dallas is vulnerable to just that.
The Cowboy defense has had a break this season because of both the quality and style of their own offense. They are both the best offense on the Football Outsiders charts, and also the slowest, at 29.6 SPS. So what does that combination mean? The defense does not have to be on the field much – the Dallas defense has only faced 672 snaps, which is 37 fewer than league average. But they rate a dismal #27 in the Football Outsiders adjusted charts, and also #27 in yards per play allowed.
You can dink and dunk this bunch, which fits the current Minnesota offensive wheelhouse. The Cowboys are allowing 70.3 percent completions, only the Lions faring worse. Their interception percentage is 0.9, only the Jaguars and Colts worse. They are #30 in sack rate, only the Raiders and Browns worse. They are #31 in yards per drive allowed, only the Colts worse.
That sets this up for the home team to be in the hunt to win outright to the final possession, which makes the points loom large, especially with Stefon Diggs back on the field, his absence possibly the difference-maker given how close last week’s loss at Detroit was. And while the Cowboys do get Barry Church back at safety, he is going to have to play with a soft cast as his broken forearm recovers, which can impact his play, while his replacement J.J. Wilcox will not be available. It would not be a surprise if Bradford had another 70+ percent night, possibly without any interceptions as well.
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