Point Blank – August 30
For the Raiders, the Secondary becomes Primary…A College Football assistant coach tells us why we should all be patient this week (indirectly, of course)…On dealing with more info than you can ever possibly use, though knowing where it is when you need it helps…Time for Christian McCaffrey to strike the pose, with so many Heisman voters watching…
The NFL tour is winding down, with only the Oakland and San Diego left, and as we head to the first NCAA board of the season, the search for edges across the landscape brings us something from an assistant coach that is worth filing away – there is some scrambling going on out there, and we all need to be a little careful with it. Yet having said that, there is also a bet to make, which I will get to at the end of today’s journey around the point spreads.
Item: The Oakland passing game is a prominent story; the ability of the Raiders to defend the pass may be just as big
It is somewhat proper for the Sports Mediaverse to focus on the development of Derek Carr throwing to Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, it is a legit story. It isn’t often that you get the dynamic of a young QB working with a pair of WRs that were first-round draft choices, and that duo combined to catch 157 passes in 2015, good for 1,992 yards and 15 TDs. As such, that will be the lead for many as they evaluate a team that came off of seasons of 4-12, 4-12 and 3-13, but elevated to 7-9 in Jack Del Rio’s first campaign, and if another year together only makes the passing game better there can be playoff aspirations.
Yet it is the other side of the ball where there might be an even more important handicapping story taking place, because it will be happening off the radar screens. Largely based on tightening up the fundamentals and bringing a better playbook into play the Oakland defense made a big leap in 2015, despite a below-par secondary, and it is that back line that deserves some focus now. Let’s start with how much better the overall defense, and pass defense, were in 2015, using the Football Outsiders as the measure, as well as opponents Passer Rating –
Total Pass PR
2014 #26 #28 #27
2015 #12 #16 #11
Kudos to Del Rio and DC Ken Norton Jr. for that, because it wasn’t about personal in the secondary. Now it may be – only David Amerson returns among the starting cast, and a case can be made that the Raiders have upgraded at all three of the other positions.
Yes, Charles Woodson had a tremendous career and will be celebrated in Canton, but at this stage Reggie Nelson is younger and better. Nelson will be joined at safety by rookie Karl Joseph, meaning a pair of 1st round picks manning the back end, Nelson showing that his draft slot was proper, and Joseph already exhibiting the potential that could make him special.
At CB the Oakland tandem of Amerson, who finally lived up to his potential last year, and free-agent acquisition Sean Smith, not only brings quality, but one of the biggest and most physical tandems in the league (Amerson is 6-1/205 and Smith 6-3/220). Behind them may also be the NFL’s best back-up corps, with former starter DJ Hayden, a first-round draft pick, still on board, as well as former starter Travis Carrie, who is likely to get the nod in the nickel packages. And backing up Joseph and Nelson is Nate Allen, a former #2 draft pick.
Considering the leap the Raider defense already made in 2015 there is an interesting ceiling here, especially with Bruce Irvin being added to help Khalil Mack and the pass rush, and note that Irvin can fit in seamlessly because Norton was his position coach for a few years with the Seahawks. The current depth chart shows eight of the 11 starters being 1st or 2nd round draft choices, an indication of the talent level, and it could go to nine if Dan Williams beats out Justin Ellis in a competitive battle at NT. Carr and the WRs may bring the sex appeal, but it would not be a surprise if it was the Oakland defense that makes bigger strides this season, and has a greater impact on the team’s fortunes.
Item: On preaching patience though this week’s NCAA board
Yes, I know, you have all been poring through those pre-season annuals and you can’t wait to sink your teeth into the NCAA board – you have re-read the team previews multiple teams and know them by heart. So now is the proper time for a reminder of what the early-season process really is about, coaches working with young players that they are only just beginning to know in some cases, and the following from Minnesota Golden Gophers DC, when he was asked about the team’s nickel packages, could be made into a plaque -
"We'll have to see. Antonio Shenault’s worked it, Antoine Winfield’s worked it, Coney Durr’s worked it. We know we can use Damarius [Travis] there; that’s not where we really want to use him. Kunle has worked it, so we’ll just have to see with that a little bit. It’s going to take us the two games [Oregon State and Indiana State] and then the open date to sort of get some things sorted out probably. That’s not the ideal. Man, you just wish you had it down right now, but that’s not unusual. You sort of have to learn that about guys you don’t know as much about. So that’s where there will be a little trial and error here."
You could likely get any of the over 250 OCs and DCs out there to echo similar sentiments this week. Those rosters you see in the pre-season publications are still filled with teenagers, and in fact many of the depth charts are not accurate, merely being best-guesses by the publication at the time. So as for that…
Item: Info overload, but there when you need it
This is one of the busiest weeks of the handicapping calendar year because it is only now that we really know who is in, and who isn’t, for the various NCAA teams. Time does not allow the proper tracking of injuries, transfers and the police blotter during the off-season, so it is when the schools release their official depth charts that we know who will be out there come Thursday-Saturday.
One of the great aspects of this age is that there is a mountain of quality information available for free, and yes while it theoretically levels the playing field, having it be available to all, it does create the opportunity for the diligent handicapper to out-work the marketplace. So let’s stay with Minnesota as the base team for what this week brings.
Each NCAA school makes both the Game Notes and Depth Chart available on-line. Over time you can create a list of bookmarks for the various athletic sites, and you can use the same link to begin both your football and basketball searches. The game notes are a serious over-load of info, some of them running out to 80+ pages, but it is good to know that they are there when you need them. On the opening week I will try to give a quick read through as many as possible. The depth charts are so essential – at this stage they become the reference point, and not the pre-season publications, not only clarifying many of the off-season personnel issues, but also showing just which newcomers have made their way into the playing rotation.
In the Sights, NCAA Friday…
I don’t believe the markets are taking the right direction on a college game for Friday night, and with the Total having dropped from 50 to 47.5 there is an edge emerging to #152 Stanford/Kansas State Over (9:00 Eastern), with 49 the value point. This one works from three directions, including both QB positions, so let’s start with them.
Jesse Ertz has a chance to be a major upgrade for the Wildcats, who were significantly under-manned at QB in 2015, after Ertz was was injured early in the opening game. Replacement Joe Hubener completed only 46.7 percent of his passes, with more interceptions than TDs, so having a plus player at the position means a substantial paradigm change for the offenese. Ertz brings the tools to be that, and the way that his own teammates have been talking about him speaks volumes. From center Dalton Risner – “The sky is the limit for Jesse. People may not realize it, but the guy is such a great athlete. We go to the pool, and he is the fastest swimmer. We go to the basketball court, and no one can guard him. He never loses at video games. He is a born winner, and I can’t wait for him to prove it on the football field.” Aiding the assimilation for Ertz is that JucCo transfer WR Byron Pringle has been living up to his billing in practice, and provides a needed weapon down the field.
Then there is the Stanford QB situation, where it has been a long time since someone other than Kevin Hogan or Andrew Luck was the starter at QB. It might sound like a daunting task for Ryan Burns and Keller Chryst to step in (Burns will start but I expect both to play), but it isn’t. Despite starting throughout his career Hogan was mostly a game manager, and did not bring any particular upside to the position. Burns and Chryst naturally lack his experience, but may bring more ability.
Making it easy for those QBs is the presence of Christian McCaffrey, of course, and he provides the third key here. David Shaw felt that his star RB deserved the Heisman last year but it was the usual problem – McCaffrey won the west coast voters but not the rest of the nation, many of those voters not seeing his games. Now there is a prime-time national television setting for Shaw to showcase his player, and that could mean a little different flow than usual in the fourth quarter – should Stanford have command, which the oddsmakers and betting markets logically project, there is an expectation that McCaffrey could be on the field for a drive or two more than usual, in part to take advantage of the showcase, and also because the Cardinal does not play for 15 days after this, so there is no particular reason to hold anything back.
Some coaches use an early game to get as many players on the field as possible, and develop depth for later. That will not be Shaw’s way – Stanford’s immediate aftermath is a home game with USC, then trips to UCLA and Washington, one of the toughest opening draws of any team, so his task is to have his best players as ready to go a full 60 minutes as possible.
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