Point Blank – June 28
CC Sabathia is going to start giving up Home Runs (there just isn’t any other way around it)…Examining Syndergaard’s “syn” (getting to first is not easy against him, but once you’re there second is)…The markets still don’t like the Rangers, so time to play in the Bronx…
It is hard to not root for CC Sabathia this season, as he battles some demons to not just turn his career around, but in fact his life. So off of back-to-back campaigns in which he turned a combined 9-14/4.85, his 5-4/2.71 through a dozen 2016 starts looks like a major success story. It isn’t likely to turn out that way.
Sabathia hasn’t actually turned any corners in terms of velocity, command or control. His K/9 rate is below the combined 2014-15 count, his BB/9 is far above his career norms, and his average fastball is clocking at 88.8 mph, down significantly from the 90.3 of last season. The reality is that just about the only good thing you can say about him is that he is keeping the ball in the park this season, at a rather terrific rate. But now comes the problem – this is not something that he is good at. Hence, why there may be some difficulties ahead as the summer heat picks up.
Let’s look at home run prevention two different ways, by the raw HR/9 rate, and also the ratio of fly-balls that leave the park.
2016 HR/9
1. Cueto .31
2. Arrieta .35
3. Sabathia .39
4. Wright .44
5. Kershaw .45
That is pretty select company. But a better tracker in terms of baseball geometry is the percentage of times that fly balls end up with fans, since the first category is also impacted by strikeouts and ground balls. And to set this up, note that Sabathia would rate #4 from that above list in K/9, and last in GB%, which means that his HR count is low despite more fly balls than the others. You can easily see that here -
2016 HR/FB Rate
1. Sabathia 4.2%
2. Cueto 4.7%
3. Arrieta 5.2%
4. Wright 5.2%
5. Quintana 5.8%
The ability to have fly balls stay in the park would be a great skill for Sabathia to possess, and someone wanting to spin his early 2016 might try to make that claim. Here is the problem – this is one part of the game that CC has not been very good at. Let’s take a look at his last five season, first noting his GB%, to show that his style has not changed all that much, but then the rather shocking reduction in balls reaching the seats -
GB% HR/FB%
2012 48.2% 12.5%
2013 44.7% 13.0%
2014 48.3% 23.3%
2015 45.9% 16.6%
2016 45.2% 4.2%
Given that there has not been any appreciable upgrade in anything else he is doing, and in particular that 3.8 BB/9 being more than a full walk above his career norm (and also more than a full walk above 2015), it is difficult to not project a vulnerability ahead. Some of the better metrics are already ominous, and in this instance xFIP can be the best guide, since it normalizes HR rates to league average. That measure puts Sabathia at 4.62 with the same pitches that ERA tracks at 2.71, and please note the reference to “league average” home runs. Sabathia has been far above average in the four seasons leading in to this one, a span of over 600 innings. So if we were to take his HR/FB rate over the course of that stretch, and use that number instead of the current 4.2 percent, it becomes a yikes count.
Sabathia turns 35 in three weeks, and has over 3,000 MLB innings behind him. To get by mostly on guile to this point in the season has been a terrific story, and Sabathia’s competitive spirit is still there. His stuff may not be, however, and it will be an extreme challenge for him to keep that HR rate anywhere near where it currently is. Add a few more home runs to his mix, and it may not be pretty.
Of course Yankee concerns about Sabathia pale compared to the fears a little ways across the Metropolitan area…
About Last Night, and Syndergaard’s syns…
Yankee fans may be able to accept the inevitable about Sabathia, and remember him for how great of a run it was. Met fans could instead be half-scared to death about Noah Syndergaard. It was a prime topic that Palmtree and I got into on the Pregame First Preview show yesterday, which you can access from the top of the list here.
Although the box score would not indicate it, Syndergaard left his last start earlier than he needed to, experiencing some elbow pain. Here is the way he detailed it - “Just a little flare up. I do the best I can to get out there every five days and put my body in the best possible position to succeed and compete to the fullest of my ability. But some days you go out there and you don’t have your best stuff. I had a little pain in a little area and it ended up being my elbow. I told the trainers what happened and they wanted to go ahead and get a precautionary MRI. It came back with the ligament looking really strong and healthy.”
So that meant a major Eye Test last night, the issue not just being his physical health, but whether a pitcher that throws harder than anyone in the Major’s would be willing to step on the mound and cut it loose. The result wasn’t pretty, an ugly outing in which 10 of the 18 Nationals that he faced reached base via a hit or walk. Now there are two issues, the first of which is his health, both physical and mental. So file this away, his comments after not being sent back out for the fourth inning –
“I can understand that, especially coming off a little elbow scare. I know that there’s a bigger picture involved. There’s still a lot of season left, and I’d like to be able to go out there and compete the rest of the season injury-free.”
That issue is two-fold, a case of what physical ailment may be there, but also his perception of it, and it looked like it may have been in his head last night. After having only walked 12 batters over 91 prior 2016 frames, he opened the game with two walks in the first inning.
But Syndergaard’s physical/mental state is not the only issue. Washington stole five bases against him, running his season total allowed to 28. Only three runners have been caught, and for his career it is now 43 of 47 swipes. Over those two seasons no pitcher of 150 innings or more has allowed a higher success rate.
Now for the ugly perspective – those 28 steals allowed this season are twice as many as anyone else in the Major’s. That is bad, but when you factor in that Syndergaard does not allow many base-runners to begin with (1.06 WHIP), it becomes worse. The blame does not go to the Mets catchers – for all other pitchers on the staff it has been 41 steals in 61 attempts, a 34.4 percent caught stealing rate that is above the MLB average of 31.2. It looks like there may be one genuine flaw in the Syndergaard arsenal, even if he is at full health.
In the Sights…
I am going to begin some anti-Sabathia play tonight because the markets are leaving the door wide open, and the path will be #909 Texas First Half (7:05 Eastern). I will play Cole Hamels over CC, and keep the bullpens out of it (the Ranger relief corps is now down to #29 in both ERA and FIP, only above the hapless Reds).
Texas brought Hamels in to be the ace of a playoff team, and after the Rangers lost his first two starts last August that is how it has played out, with a current 21-4 surge over the last 25 with him on the hill. Hamels has been good, but not great, so far, but where his positive correction will come from, an 18.8 percent HR/FB rate well above his career 11.3, is the opposite direction of where I perceive Sabathia’s arc to be. This is also a prime opportunity for some of that correction to take place, with the Yankees #27 in OPS against left-handers.
Hamels is far batter than Sabathia, the Ranger offense against left-handers (#4 in OPS at .800) is far better than the Yankees, and the gap between the defenses is also wide (#5 vs. #14 in PADE; #2 vs. #24 at FanGraphs). Yet the price is extremely fair, with plenty of -115 available in the morning trading; in this instance value extending up to -125.
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