Point Blank – May 23
Late in Game #3, Tryonn Lue became Peter Wolf (Yes it was proper to sing “Love Stinks”, but did he do the best thing for his player going forward?)…How much will the Giants force Drew Pomeranz to knuckle down…The Rays may be in more trouble than many think (Logan Forsythe + Kevin Kiermaeir = A lot of damn good baseball)…Clayton Kershaw didn’t have dinner at home last night…
Each day in this endeavor begins with the process of working through the various post mortems of what took place across the previous board, and for those that want to advance to the highest level possible there is also the advanced arena of looking at what almost happened, and easily could have, but did not. Probability cannot be properly grasped until one has an understanding of possibility. The way that sports are structured, and the way the human psyche works, will never allow for a high degree of certainty in predicting outcomes; you win not by being brilliant, but instead by being better than others in the marketplace.
As such, let’s begin the week with an open question, and answer it honestly – If someone offered you Cleveland/Golden State at +42.5 for those Game 3’s over the weekend, how much would you have bet?
It harkens back to Sky Masterson in “Guys and Dolls” - One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider.
Unexpected results also make for challenging post mortems, of which we have a pair to deal with. I will get back to Golden State/OKC tomorrow, with a side question running throughout this day across those that have followed the NBA long-term: where does the Thunder performance on Sunday rank in the annals of Conference Finals or Finals history? If the Warriors are going to be considered among the best teams ever, then where was that in terms of the best games ever? Breaking down the Western Conference will resume here tomorrow morning.
For now it is time to head to Toronto, and the fact that what the Cavaliers had hoped were issues resolved yet still are not – the confidence of Kevin Love drifting in and out, instead of being a constant, and the fact that Tyronn Lue is still in his early days as an NBA head coach. Love was terrible on Saturday, so much so that Lue was forced into a tactical corner – the best way to rally and win the game may have been with his power forward on the sidelines, but was that the best way for the team to proceed beyond Saturday’s result, and into the tougher challenge the Finals will bring?
Lue made his decision, and became Peter Wolf in the fourth quarter, fronting the J. Geils Band. But by flat-out declaring in his end-game rotation that “Love Stinks”, did he also run the risk of that odor lingering?
That was from a reunion tour stop at the Paramount Theatre in Hungtington, New York last August, Wolf not losing much of his energy at all over the years, one of the iconic front-men in Rock and Roll history, stagecraft at its utmost. You can catch him on tour, backed by the Midnight Travelers this summer, and you should (I may make my way over to L.A. for that August show, Steve Miller also on the bill). Now back to Toronto.
Cavaliers/Raptors #4 – Welcome to adversity, Tyronn Lue
As noted already, Love was terrible on Saturday. Flat dead terrible. Kyrie Irving wasn’t any better, and you could even make a case he was worse. That duo combined to shoot a hideous 4-28, and beyond missing shots failed to do what their positions call for them to do – Love did not rebound (four in 29:17), and Irving did not distribute (three turnovers vs. only one assist in 37:41). As for hustle plays, a combined 66:58 of court time from the duo brought one steal. They stunk, and perhaps each needed a hug, but there was a difference in the handling by Lue.
Irving was given the opportunity to play his way out of the funk in the fourth quarter, Cleveland trailing by 10 entering the stanza, the game still within reach. Irving did not get any better, but at least he was out there. Love wasn’t. He did not leave the Cavalier bench over the final stanza, and while there was little he had shown earlier in the game to suggest he could positively impact the proceedings, Lue took a gamble not only on disrupting a team chemistry that had been sound through the first 10 playoff games, but also in possibly damaging Love’s psyche, making a bad outing potentially worse.
Part of why that chemistry had been strong, of course, is that it had not been challenged, which in turn means that Lue’s player rotation had not been challenged. And then it got awkward in the aftermath. Was there a focus on talking up Irving and Love, noting how key they are in the grand scheme, and how there will be confidence in them getting back on track? That was hard to find. Lue instead offered that he should have gotten the ball in LeBron’s hands more – “I think I should have called more plays to make him (James) dominant.”
That means time for LeBron to step up and be the conciliator, which he often is, right? But he was on the same theme - “The ball has kind of been taken out of my hands a little bit. I’m OK with that. But there is a point in time where you say, ‘OK some of the guys are not going, maybe let me see if I can get it going’. But [Saturday] night just didn’t happen that way. We’ll have a better game plan going into Game 4.”
A professor of logic can break that down word by word as implying that it was not just the failures of Irving/Love, but that they were also given too many chances to fail. It may not have been LeBron’s intent of statement, but…
Yes, players other than James were 19-62 from the field, and after controlling the boards by +30 in the first two games the Cavaliers were out-worked 54-40. LeBron’s supporting cast folded up under genuine game pressure. But their purpose now should only be partially about beating Toronto, it also needs to be on becoming the best basketball team they can be; they have to be growing towards a much great challenge in the Finals (yes, I am writing the Raptors off; they are capable of winning another game, but not three more).
I likely won’t be coming out of pocket for anything pre-tipoff tonight. Zig Zag will back Cleveland, but not only do I have concerns about the Cavalier rotation and psyche, there is also the fact that Toronto will play with a renewed energy and confidence tonight. The Raptors are an energy team, and can win more than half of the loose balls, with the possibility of a few minutes from Jonas Valanciunas adding more spark. While there is a particular pendulum calling Over because of the docile end-games this series has produced, Saturday’s tempo also urges caution there – when Dwane Casey got a chance to coach a competitive game, there were snails involved in some of the sets. That puts the focus on In-Running, and much like Sunday night in Oklahoma City, there are some early “tells” this one can bring that may offer opportunity (if Love and Irving make early shots, which can feed aggression, watch out).
Meanwhile there are some intriguing storylines across the Monday MLB Diamonds, so let’s get to them.
Item: Is Drew Pomeranz going to have significant Second Look/Third Look splits?
Pomeranz has been one of the intriguing early-season stories of 2016, a guy with seemingly only back-end of a rotation stuff still sitting with a 1.96 ERA through eight starts, and an 11.0 K/9 that is far above his career 8.5. So much of that surge has come from a knuckle-curve that has gone from being an occasional offering to his dominant pitch – FanGraphs charts him as throwing it on 41.6 percent the time. It is not an easy pitch for batters to deal with, the K/9 rate supported by SWS% going from a career 9.6 to the current 12.5.
But now an issue – part of why the pitch is so difficult to hit is that it often ends up out of the strike zone, batters flailing at an arc they are not accustomed to. What can happen if they hold back? The Pomeranz BB/9 is already at 4.1, and of 102 qualifying pitchers that puts him at #88. Hence why some added attention should be put on his rematch with Johnny Cueto tonight, after Cueto and the Giants won 2-1 at Petco last week.
This will be the third time around for the San Francisco hitters vs. Pomeranz, and what I will be looking for tonight is the level of patience. The Giants scouting reports have already been good, forcing him out to 208 pitches over 10.1 IP. Will it be more of the same tonight, and if so does that become the blueprint for other teams? It is still a delicate sorting because Pomeranz is not going to give up a lot of hard contact, but will the San Francisco hitters be reading that knuckle-curve better? In this instance it will not be about how good the swings are, but instead how many.
Item: Logan Forsythe + Kevin Kiermaeir = A lot of damn good baseball to replace
It is also time to watch Tampa Bay closely over a tough cycle ahead. Neither Forsythe nor Kiermaier carry major reputations, but they have been contributing a lot of good baseball to the Rays over the past couple of seasons, and to have both on the DL may take more of a toll than the markets will appreciate – especially in a difficult cycle of playing 21 straight days (they are three games in, with 18 to go). Just how good have those two been?
Forsythe WAR among all MLB Second Baseman:
2015: #5
2016: #6*
* - At the time of injury
Kiermaier WAR among all MLB outfielders:
2015: #8
2016: #25
That’s a lot. Part of why they are under-appreciated is their glove work, especially Kiermaier, which simply does not show up in the daily box scores, so one of the key tracking elements through this cycle will be the team defensive metrics. The Rays have naturally been good across the board so far, including the simplest and most trustworthy #4 in PADE. Maintaining that will not be easy, and it is something that should have you going beyond the box scores over the next few weeks.
Item: On those difficulties of pricing Clayton Kershaw
Last Wednesday the focus in this spot on the page was on the difficulty of setting a Power Rating for Clayton Kershaw, who is putting up simply brilliant numbers, with a K/BB count beyond parallel – he is in the running to lead the Majors in both strikeout rate and walk rate, something no one has come close to. Consider this, when looking at the K% leaders –
K% BB%
Fernandez 35.9 11.1
Kershaw 34.8 1.6
Syndergaard 32.6 3.9
Scherzer 31.5 6.7
Velasquez 30.9 7.9
None of the other power pitchers will come close to his control. Tonight it goes beyond the stats, however, with a rather unusual setting in play. But is Kershaw so good that he will be impervious to it?
Pitchers that will start the first game of a new series will almost always travel ahead of their team to that venue. It means getting settled in, having dinner on schedule, and getting to bed early. For Kershaw, that would have meant dinner at home last night. But because the Dodgers were playing a short distance away in San Diego, there was the thought by team management that a game played near the regular MLB time would still have him home in time for dinner.
That didn’t happen. The final pitch of Dodgers/Padres was not thrown until 7:31 Pacific, nearly four hours later than expected, and Kershaw even saw action in the game as a pinch hitter. Instead of dinner at home, and being in the usual routine, it was clubhouse food before the Dodgers headed to the airport. Can this throw a pitcher out of sync? Yes. Will it matter tonight? The difficulty is that Kershaw could be less than himself, and still likely handle the Reds, especially since there is a particular reason for him to have some adrenaline – the team needs him to eat some innings, with every available hurler working from the bullpen, including J. P. Howell being stretched out to three innings, before Ross Stripling came on to finish it out (and that was after going to 11 innings on Saturday night as well).
This becomes a fascinating case study, and with two Las Vegas properties already at -400, who knows where it goes. There is the possibility of taking a bite at some point (+350 is the current target, although a reasonable Over 6 might also fit in), but only for a solitary slice of pizza with no added toppings. Kershaw is simply that good.
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