Point Blank – May 13
The Firestorm Saga begins in the Bronx (East 161st street is going to get tougher on hitters, cue Dion to sing about it)…From the dignity of Duncan’s probable farewell (he certainly carried himself as a Musketeer), to the sordid obligation of having to say at least something about Raptors/Heat Game 6…On properly grading Dallas Keuchel’s Thursday, and questioning how ready Lance McCullers is for this…
One of the things that can keep you forever young in this endeavor (no, I am not weaving in Bob Dylan today, but that will happen sometime) is the fact that the sporting calendar is filled with beginnings, opportunities to make something good happen for the bankroll while also challenging the imagination. That allows farewells to be short and sweet, which is how they are best kept when the screen is flashing the changing numbers of the current day’s trading.
Tim Duncan deserves one. While no official proclamation was made last night, which is indeed his dignified way of not seeking attention, the odds are that we have seen the last of him in a live NBA game, ending a career that may not get the full appreciation it deserves because his playing style did not bring a lot of flash. There was also a particular irony in his “Famous Final Scene” at Oklahoma City, all of those little things he does added up to one part of the box score that not many will notice, but is a fitting epitaph –
Spurs in Game #6
Minutes +/-
Duncan In 27:05 +4
Duncan Out 20:55 -18
Here is a something that has been a truth for me, and likely for many of you as well – long-term survival in the Land of Vigorish almost requires you becoming a fan at times, the various human pageants that play out begging for some sort of personal attachment, so that the combatants are not reduced to merely being a number. They will be better understood that way. There are times in which you will have a rooting interest beyond the bankroll, and instead of fighting it you should encourage it; in the process you will learn more both about the game, and yourself (in my perfect world Providence will win a National Championship for Ed Cooley).
Duncan was just such a rooting interest, and because he has been around for so long will be greatly missed. One of the classic arcs of literature was the “Three Musketeers” cycle by Alexandre Dumas, a brilliant combination of character study and plotting through the lives of Athos, Porthos, Aramis and D’Artagnan. A treasured anecdote was an interview Dumas granted to a French newspaper after the last of the series, noting how he wept openly the evening that he had written the death scene of Porthos, after that noble character had become such a major part of his own consciousness. The sporting world is far less sentimental, especially in terms of the betting boards, but every once in a while it is OK to genuinely miss something that has been lost from those playing fields.
And then you quickly turn the focus to something fresh and new…
Item: The Firestorm Saga begins in the Bronx
There is going to be a lot of heat thrown at opposing batters by the New York Yankees over the next few years, and after hinting at aspects of it in yesterday’s thread it is time to get down to business. So let’s crank up the jukebox with the proper street attitude of some fearless young hurlers establishing their turf in the Bronx, an old classic from Dion DiMucci, "King of the New York Streets" -
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OK, so there is a little plot twist at the end that turns that one back around a bit, but for the Yankee pitching staff this could be very, very real.
One of the surprising moves this past off-season was the Yankee signing of Aroldis Chapman, which seemed like overkill for a bullpen that already had Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller. But might this table show some of the method to the madness –
2016 Top Average Fastball Velocity:
1. Syndergaard 97.7
2. Eovaldi 96.7
3. Richards 95.7
4. Severino 95.5
5. Martinez 95.5
Note a pair of young Yankees on the list, and hence why I began counting the Firestorm Saga as being underway last night, the first time Eovaldi took the mound with Chapman available. The notion is a simple one – if you can take one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the sport and reduce him to 5-6 innings, because of that great bullpen assortment, then he can cut it loose even more, without having to pace himself. The Thursday result was a 97.4 average for Eovaldi, his season high. He wasn’t all that good, but he was all that fast.
So now envision this, on days in which Eovaldi or Severino start – not only do they bring high heat, but can perhaps even increase it with expectations of shorter stints, and then they turn it over to Betances (96.6 mph), Miller (“only” 95.0) and Chapman (99.7). The prospects are fascinating, especially sine Miller turns 30 next week, while Chapman and Betances are 28, Eovaldi 26, and Severino 22. This could be in play for a while.
But before you get too excited, there is a prime issue – while both Eovaldi and Severino are of the “can throw the ball through a car wash without it getting wet” category, there is something missing. Both fastball’s are a little too straight –
2016 K/9 SWS%
Eovaldi 8.4 9.0
Severino 7.0 8.0
Let’s contrast those counts with the other three pitchers in the current Heat Top 5 for comparison –
2016 K/9 SWS%
Syndergarrd 10.4 22.7
Richards 8.8 11.2
Martinez 7.1 8.9
It isn’t just heat, but you also need a little movement off of it, and that is something Eovaldi has not had (as he nears 700 MLB innings), and Severino has not yet shown. Hence, why Severino has opened 0-5/6.12 this season, despite throwing that hard, finding the strike zone (1.7 BB/9), and with a 49.1 GB% that you can also win with. Where Severino has been hurt by that fast, but straight, heater is that since contact is a little easier to make than usual vs. those radar counts, the contact can be dangerous – at nearly 100 MLB innings his HR/FB rate is an astronomical 20.3 percent, more than double the league average.
Last night Eovaldi went under the microscope, and also into the pocket. Tonight it will only be a study of Severino, who does need to have something go right to get his confidence where it needs to be, but should that happen there are going to be plenty of opportunities ahead.
Raptors/Heat #6 – This just hasn’t been pretty, and likely won’t be once again
I have not had a great feel for this series, the quality of basketball both low and inconsistent. Dwyane Wade has been about the only steady force, with the supporting cast around him not elevating their games much at all, while the Lowry/DeRozan roller-coaster has continued to make the Raptors erratic in these playoffs. Just when you want to certify them, the plot twists. Consider Wednesday’s ending.
Had you only see the play-by-play charts, there would be the appearance of Dwane Casey having confidence in Lowry, and running plays for him on the two biggest possessions of the game, Lowry then delivering with clutch ice-water-in-the-veins makes. The reality was different -
1:15 Toronto 90-87
Offense had nothing going, ball given to Lowry for long 3-point shot at 0:53. He made it
0:47 Toronto 93-89
Offense had nothing given, ball given to Lowry to force a mid-range jumper at 0:24. He made it.
On the two biggest trips of the game the Raptors basically did not run anything, instead kicking the ball back out to Lowry late in the shot clock, when he forced a pair of attempts that both went in. And this was from a guy that was 7-23 in the game prior to those two shots.
If there has been one reliable constant it has been the aggressiveness of the Toronto defense, which is making it awfully difficult for the Heat to get into an offensive flow (from Erik Spoelstra – “They’re built to push you and stress you and put you in uncomfortable situations. And that’s what this series is doing right now.”) In particular note that five games in, Goran Dragic still has more turnovers (16) than assists (13), and when your PG has that ratio it is not easy to win games.
My numbers show the Raptors to be a fit at +5 tonight, and I am almost hoping that it does not appear so that I do not have to watch so intently.
About Last Night (you need to grade Dallas Keuchel’s outing on a curve)…
Keuchel was part of the Thursday focus point here, a guy with a great reputation in the markets and a Cy Young in his trophy case now sporting a dismal 16-26/4.60 on the road for his career. But while his Thursday in Fenway was indeed bad, capped by an ugly three-run allowance in the sixth inning, give him one slight break in your grading – the sixth inning ordinarily would not have happened, but he was out there to “take one for the team”.
Keuchel was not supposed to throw 114 pitches last night, especially since he did not have his best stuff. But seven Houston relievers combined to throw 133 pitches on Wednesday, and A. J. Hinch was also aware that he may need some fresh arms if Lance McCullers is not fully ready for this evening. So Keuchel had to try to gut out the sixth inning, his statistical profile getting penalized a bit more than it should have. As for McCullers and the Astros…
In the Sights…
We can get back on #922 Boston (7:10 Eastern) again tonight, using the same split of Half Straight/Half Run Line as yesterday. The formula is the same – Play On Pitcher vs. Play Against (especially in terms of market perceptions), and Play On Team vs. Play Against.
McCullers had to open on the DL because of a shoulder injury, and has only worked eight innings across a pair of rehab starts in the Minors. That may not have him prepared for the toughest challenge a pitcher can have right now, a Boston lineup that is stroking all the way up and down the order, having become the first team in 66 years to score at least 11 runs in four straight games.
Meanwhile the markets are also slow to recognize: A. That for all of the reputation of the Astros as a young team on the rise they are now 26-55 on the road over their last full season cycle, including 4-12 this season; and B. Steven Wright is showing the requisite signs of being legit. No, he is not going to maintain an ERA anywhere near the early 1.52 of this season, but his command of the strike zone, GB% and SWS% are all adding up nicely. One of the reasons why he will bring value is that many of the advanced metrics do not read knuckleballers well, their ability to get more popups than the league average something that confounds those formulas, and indeed Wright’s ERA at nearly 150 innings into his career is almost a full run lower than FIP or SIERA. That leaves a window open – many will call for his .260 BABIP (career) to be an outlier; it likely isn’t.
In the Sights, Saturday MLB…
This one is right up against the edge of the value meter, but with #956 Philadelphia (7:05 Eastern) sitting in the high -140’s in the wee hours that fits for two teams in far different places right now, and two pitchers from much different classifications, it still fits. The Phillies are playing with a lot of energy and confidence and Aaron Nola shows all of the signs of being absolutely legit – if you are dealing to a 9.6 K/9 plus getting a lot of ground balls when there is contact, a 53.8 GB%, while also only walking 1.6-per-9, you are showing the potential to be elite, and Nola has that potential. Tim Adleman doesn’t, a 28-year old journeyman who is here more because the Reds lack options than any upside he brings, yet the fortunate bounces from his first two starts (.185 BABIP and 91.0 LOB%) mislead the markets into this price range. With the team behind him just 2-11 on the road this season, getting out-scored by 41 run in the process, and the worst bullpen in the Major’s for the latter stages, the Reds are being given more market respect than they deserve.
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