Point Blank – February 5
The Weekender - A little game in Santa Clara…An ode to Easy Jack (for days when you want all of the flavor, but not all of the alcohol)…The Kobe watch continues…Tyronn Lue vs. Brad Stevens is a clipboard mismatch, and how to take advantage…
I will not have much going on financially this NFL Sunday, at least at kickoff, which will make me rather rare for those involved in this endeavor. The current Side and total offerings for Super Bowl 50 just do not grade out as bringing significant value for my ratings. I will of course be watching closely while sipping a few Easy Jack’s*, the spectacle of it all so unique, and possibly some In-Running opportunities unfolding.
(* - Put Firestone Walker’s Easy Jack on your short list of the best session beers out there, a concerted effort to create as much flavor as possible while also keeping the alcohol content low, in this case just 4.6 percent ABV. That matters when you are spreading something out over the course of several hours and need to keep your wits about you, and for a good read of how it all came together you can go here.)
Instead of detailing where and why I am in play, perhaps a purpose can be served here by why I am not, which can provide some food for thought for your own handicap. Before doing that, a little musical backdrop to make your Friday reading flow, a tribute to Maurice White (1941-2016), founder of Earth Wind & Fire, with a live version of “Be Ever Wonderful” that showcased his versatility and range -
In a musical genre that brought a lot of imitators, White and his band-mates were true originators.
Now on to the game. First there is the straight value aspect, with the game grading out as a Lay -3/Take +7, which puts the current Carolina -5.5 in a No Man’s Land. The same can be said about the Total. But how about the particulars –
Why Carolina might not win at all
There is something to be said about a nervous tension for a group that did not have a lot of playoff experience prior to this season, and had such big early leads vs. the Seahawks and Cardinals that they did not face a lot of game pressure – they wobbled a bit late vs. Seattle, but some of that was through game management design, which was detailed here at the time.
The Panthers may be talented enough to overcome that, Cam Newton perhaps being someone that can transcend the usual boundaries because of his abilities. There are particular matchup issues he brings, which I will get to in a moment. But he also faces limitations here – one of the amazing aspects of his season was how he put together an effective passing game with one of the weakest WR corps in the NFL, and it is the matchup of those WRs into Denver CBs Chris Harris and Aqip Talib that is one of the game’s biggest mismatches – in favor of the underdog. Big plays are harder to come by when your receivers simply can’t get open. And games do not break open when the favorite is prevented from making big plays.
Why Denver might get blown out
The Bronco CBs can indeed win their one-on-one battles vs. Ginn, Brown, Cotchery and Funchess, and it is part of why that defense was #1 in the NFL this season. But there is also a key element of that defense that might get turned inside-out, the pass rush. They ran roughshod over the New England OL to rudely take Tom Brady to the Front Range turf in the AFC Championship game, largely because that was the only concern for Von Miller & company at the snap. This matchup is different – they first must respect and contain the ground game, a complete non-issue vs. the Patriots, and then instead of a direct line to Newton they must be aware of maintaining rush lanes, so that he does not get outside the pocket (a place Brady was not going). This tempering of their aggressiveness is a significant game flow issue, and with the Panthers likely to run more read option than usual, those edge rushes have an additional trick thrown their way.
Then there is Peyton Manning, of course, and an offense that got through those playoff wins without doing all that much, managing just three TDs over eight quarters. Their inability to stretch the field is going to mean a lot of Carolina defenders in the box, which will require a high degree of offensive execution to keep the chains moving. And if the Panthers do break out early it can get ugly, this offense lacking the zip to be able to speed up and attack from behind.
So you can see through those basic points what some of the issues are – the Panthers may not be able to get into the loose offensive flow they have had early in games throughout the playoffs, and every failed drive can build a nervous tension. But the Broncos may also have to play a defensive style that negates some of their own strengths, and do not bring much ability to play from behind. Plenty of volatility there, issues better saved for the judgments of In-Running, rather than forcing a pre-kickoff conclusion.
And of course there are the props…
I do not delve as deeply here as many others do because of time limitations, the daily basketball boards requiring so much attention, and there are some sharks in the props water with awfully sharp teeth, cleaning out the mistakes rather quickly. If you want to have some fun sorting through a property that puts up more options than any other, you can go to the Westgate list here. But there is one that I thought brought value from the opener, and since the number has remained steady you can get in play with an "In the Sights..." on Peyton Manning Passing Yards Under, with 237.5 appearing to be the most common offering.
I do not have to go into major detail here for faithful readers because Manning’s arm strength has been written about here about as much as any other major handicapping factor in these spaces, starting in December of 2014, and even in leading the Broncos through the AFC playoffs he only managed 398 passing yards on 69 attempts. I do not believe he has any more success than that vs. the Panther defense in terms of efficiency, and I also believe his attempts may be fewer.
I expect the Denver game plan to be one of ball control, run-first with a lot of short passes that are essentially extended running plays. Those passes will not generate a lot of yardage, but because most of them will be completed it will keep the clock moving. As long as the game is close, that plan stays in place. Where I believe there may be a subtle bonus edge is that if the game breaks open in the Carolina direction, it may not be Manning doing all of the passing from behind. If the Broncos have to hurry up and throw it down the field Brock Osweiler is both more mobile, and possesses a stronger arm. And if the game breaks wide open, then it may be Osweiler getting the mop-up duty anyway, with Manning being given a courtesy bow-out sometime in the 4th quarter for the fans to give him one last round of applause.
About Last Night…
Yes, after being the lead topic yesterday Kobe Bryant deserves some follow-up. It was 27 points and 12 rebounds over 32:07 of court time to lead the Lakers to their second consecutive win, not only a throwback to statistics of old, but also game flows of old – when it was close late the ball was in his hands, Bryant scoring 12 points after returning to the floor with 6:30 remaining.
Over the last three games he has scored 88 points and grabbed 28 rebounds in 88:06 of court time, the Lakers gong +23 on the scoreboard across those minutes. Of course that also means that they were -34 when he was not playing, so there are still significant issues. But when Kobe is playing well he also plays harder, and that should impact the energy of the other Lakers, especially with a couple of wins under their belts. They will be substantial underdogs in all games up through the All Star break (at San Antonio, Indiana and Cleveland), the kind of settings in which a good hard effort may be enough to stay within the number.
In The Sights, Friday NBA…
For all of the attention going to Cleveland in the post-David Blatt cycle, one that indeed brings intrigue because of Tyronn Lue’s inexperience, one of the least appreciated stories of this NBA season is the terrific job Brad Stevens is doing in putting the puzzle together with the Celtics, especially on the defensive end, and that brings an opening vs. those Cavaliers tonight. With Boston under-valued as a side, and the Total also set too high, the path will be #860 Cleveland Team Total Under (7:35 Eastern). You should have to do no worse than 109 (there is a little 109.5 out there early). For those without access to Team Totals, a split ticket of Boston/Under can tie together much of the same logic.
The Celtic defense has made tremendous strides this season, elevating from #14 when allowing 102.1 PP100 last year to the current #2 and 98.7, and they are doing it across the board – tied for #2 in FG percentage allowed, while also #2 in steals, and #2 in assists per FG attempt. A deep rotation allows Stevens to extend his defense to create pressure, and the following from Stan Van Gundy, after his Pistons were held to 37.6 percent shooting, and had nearly as many turnovers (16) as assists (18) in a loss at Boston earlier this week lays it out well – “They were right into us. We didn’t handle their pressure well at all. Their defense took us out of everything. They did a great job, and we didn’t respond to it.’’
Beating this defensive requires some tactical adjustments as the game progresses, and I see Stevens over Lue as being a mismatch in that regard. As noted in the Thursday column the X’s and O‘s acumen coming from the Cleveland locker room is a question mark right now, especially in terms of halftime adjustments, with the Cavs getting out-scored by a shocking 63-32 in the third quarter vs. the Pacers and Hornets in their last two games. I believe they will struggle to find a rhythm against this defense, which becomes an issue of both pace and offensive efficiency, and do not get caught up in the prevailing market notions of the team playing faster under Lue – to date the pace has actually been a tick slower than it was under Blatt
In the Sights, Saturday NBA…
For as terrific as Golden State has been this season, many nights the Warriors have spent time coasting with big leads, merely taking care of business. There have been two recent occasions in which they faced what appeared to be legitimate challenges, and there were major punches thrown in the early rounds of those fights, leading to early TKOs. I see more of the same tonight as Oklahoma City presents a similar challenge going in, and that means #520 Golden State First Half (9:00 Eastern) goes into play. You should not have to do any worse than -5, but there is plenty of -4.5 out there.
When the Cavaliers and Spurs posed challenges in recent weeks it was a dynamic opening salvo from the Warriors, leading those games by a collective 132-91 at halftime. I do not see the Thunder as having the floor game to avoid that, especially with the continuing defensive weaknesses being shown without Andre Roberson, something that has been detailed on these pages a few times. But there is something else in play here that makes them fragile for this setting – the recent sparring partners have not helped to set them up for this fight at all.
Through 16 games in calendar 2016, OKC has only played five teams that would currently qualify for the playoffs, and note only were none of them truly upper-echelon, but they faced a Miami team without Goran Dragic and Beno Udrih, and in one of the two games vs. Dallas both Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams sat out. I believe that can bring an early glass jaw here, the Warriors having had a couple of days off to throw some haymakers, and Billy Donovan not ready yet to counter. I will put the focus on the opening stages instead of the full game, respective the abilities of Durant/Westbrook to challenge the backdoor later.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA…
One of my favorite settings on the college hardwoods comes straight form basketball science – Good Defense as a home favorite can choke off Bad Offense. If the power ratings and oddsmakers projections are correct, it means that matchup becomes magnified in the latter stages, when the overmatched offense is forced to try to score quickly to catch up, even more of a factor with the reduced shot clock. And that concept leads to #586 Texas A&M (4:00 Eastern) this afternoon.
If we view conference-statistics only, and by the first Saturday in February there have been enough games to make that the best path, Billy Kennedy’s Aggies are #1 in the SEC in defensive efficiency, while the South Carolina offense is only #11. In terms of forcing turnovers A&M is #1, while the Gamecocks are dead last at #14 in committing them. And if you want to see how that has already played out in game flows, it is there.
The Aggies are unbeaten at home in SEC play, only Florida staying within double figures, and that includes handling the likes of LSU by 14 and Arkansas by 23, while Iowa State was also beaten by 10 in a key non-league showdown last Saturday. Now that defense brings an added fire today off of a rare bad outing, Vanderbilt shooting 30-59 in Nashville on Thursday.
Meanwhile South Carolina’s road struggles are easy to document – despite being favored, the Gamecocks fell by 13 at Georgia, by nine at Tennessee and by 23 at Alabama, and they had to rally from 12 down in the second half to escape in overtime at Ole Miss. The only SEC road success came vs. erratic Auburn, and that was over a month ago.
Off of Thursday’s loss, which was one-sided enough for Kennedy to spread the minutes well to have his team fresh for this one, and with this designated as “Military Appreciation Day” there will be strong fan support. South Carolina has already failed on easier conference trips, and the closing stages will bring not just the SEC’s best defense, but one of the nation’s best (#7), extending a margin against a gang that can’s shoot straight (SC is #247 in the nation, and #14 in the SEC in effective FG%).
The complete Point Blank Archive
U.S. Election 2016: The Perils of Polls
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)