Point Blank – January 22
The Weekender – The impact of a storm named Jonas (does it reach all the way to Charlotte on Sunday?)…It will not be a Shrine to offense in St. Petersburg…No “Hail” for this Caesar…Evaluating the impact of the National Review’s “Trump Card”…In the recent post-season, the end zone has not been Peyton’s Place…
The college basketball weekend begins earlier than expected on Friday, with Duquesne/George Mason tipping off at 2 PM Eastern, 26 hours ahead of schedule because of Winter Storm Jonas, which has a chance to scramble a whole lot of things up. When a storm already has a name, it means the folks doing the forecasting are pretty certain it is going to be major.
That means it is time to begin sorting through some of the issues, including what might be the most significant of al in terms of the betting marketplace - does it pose a chance to have some impact for Arizona/Carolina on Sunday, potentially bringing an added element into the handicap for that one. While a wind chill that could dip into the upper 20s may not sound like such a big deal, does that matter for a team like the Cardinals, accustomed to practicing in the warm confidences of Phoenix, and playing their home games in a dome?
For now the forecast is not daunting – what precipitation there is to be should have moved through the area by Sunday night. The temperature is another matter. Here is the current projection, which can be updated throughout the weekend with a click to this link.
| 5:00 PM | 6:00 PM | 7:00 PM | 8:00 PM | 9:00 PM | 10:00 PM |
Wind |
2 mph West |
2 mph West |
2 mph WNW |
2 mph WNW |
2 mph WNW |
3 mph WNW |
Conditions |
Clear |
Clear |
Clear |
Clear |
Clear |
Clear |
Temperature |
40 °F |
39 °F |
37 °F |
36 °F |
35 °F |
34 °F |
Humidity |
51 % |
55 % |
58 % |
61 % |
64 % |
68 % |
Chance of Rain |
2 % |
2 % |
2 % |
2 % |
2 % |
2 % |
Stadium Layout
|
Nearby Weather Stations
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As for Patriots/Broncos, here is the current look, and this link will update -
1:05 PM MST on January 24, 2016
| 12:00 PM | 1:00 PM | 2:00 PM | 3:00 PM | 4:00 PM | 5:00 PM |
Wind |
3 mph NNW |
3 mph NNW |
3 mph NNW |
4 mph NNW |
4 mph NNW |
5 mph NNW |
Conditions |
Chance of Snow |
Chance of Snow |
Chance of Snow |
Chance of Snow |
Chance of Snow |
Chance of Snow |
Temperature |
44 °F |
44 °F |
45 °F |
42 °F |
40 °F |
37 °F |
Humidity |
42 % |
42 % |
43 % |
49 % |
55 % |
61 % |
Chance of Rain |
25 % |
25 % |
25 % |
25 % |
25 % |
25 % |
Here are the NCAA changes to far for the weekend so far, and more will be added in the follow-up thread:
Friday:
870 Rhode Island/George Washington moved from 7 PM to 3 PM Eastern tipoff
884 Toledo/Northern Illinois moved from Saturday, 6:30 Eastern (for television purposes)
886 Duquesne/George Mason moved from Saturday, 2:00 Eastern
888 Yale/Brown moved from Saturday, 8:00 Eastern
Saturday Postponed:
524 Syracuse/Virginia
530 Providence/Villanova
542 Davidson/Richmond
570 St. Bonaventure/VCU
690 St. Joseph’s/LaSalle
666 SMU/Temple
You know how bad it may be when St. Joseph’s and LaSalle don’t even expect to be able to get across town.
For the games that will be played, I will be looking at two things – visiting teams that may have a difficult time getting to their game venues (Georgetown, Boston College, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Marshall, Pittsburgh, Columbia, William & Mary, Delaware, NC-Wilmington, James Madison, Marquette, and Maryland look like possibilities), although many of them will solve that by traveling a little earlier. The next step will be to re-examine the usual home court advantages, since some of the games may be played in front of sparse crowds. It will not mean huge edges, but in an endeavor in which every point matters, there can be some opportunities for the portfolio.
It will not be a Shrine to offense on Saturday
While most in the marketplace ignore the East-West Shrine game, tomorrow afternoon in St. Petersburg, and the Senior Bowl (at Mobile next week), I have found them occasionally ripe with possibilities. There are times at which the QBs for a particular side are much better suited for the based NFL offenses, and also situations in which those QBs have teammates at RB/WR/TE that can make the assimilation easier. Last year there was an “In the Sights…” Under Ticket that came home easily in a 19-3 win by the East, because the QB play simply was not very good at all. This year may be more of the same.
First note that one of the on-going themes in recent years is that college spread offenses do not prepare QBs well for the NFL style of play. Some of that can be seen in these games, when the pro-style offense is forced by the rulebook – the last six Shrine affairs have produced an average of just 32.7 ppg. This year’s group did not look much better on paper going in, and after four days of practices one prominent NFL scout has stated that he does not see anyone better than a 5th-round draft pick, with four of the six likely not be drafted at all. For the East it will be Blake Frohnapfel (Massachusetts), Jake Rudock (Michigan) and Joel Stave (Wisconsin), while the West brings Vernon Adams (Oregon), Nate Sudfeld (Indiana) and Brandon Doughty (Western Kentucky). Yes, Wisconsin is further west than Indiana or Western Kentucky, but the roster splits are not tied to geometry.
I do not see a line available this morning, but should a 41 or better appear as the Total I can see going to the well again. I believe the West roster is slightly better overall, but not worthy of consideration to win the game, since all three of those QBs were accustomed to spread/no huddle schemes at their schools, and may face timing and adjustment issues.
No “Hail” for this Caesar
Coming to Las Vegas to wager on the Conference Championship games? You might want to skip Caesar’s Palace. Teasers will not be offered on the two NFL games, after the property was among many that took a beating across that category last week. It would be shooting fish in a barrel to make a caustic quip about that being one of the many short-sighted decisions that has driven the organization to the edge of an ugly bankruptcy, so I will just leave it at that.
A Trump Card, or a failed bluff?
I have posted some of this into the on-going thread on the wagering prospects of the 2016 US Presidential Election, but it is pertinent to note here, because of the potential market impact. Much of the discussion in that thread has dealt with The Powers That Be getting tight under the collar as Donald Trump moved up the ladder, and there has been a culmination in at least one regard today, the National Review going to the extreme of publishing a special anti-Trump edition.
There are not many punches being pulled there, and in particular you can note Neal Freeman’s offer of a $100,000 wager, to be donated to charity, regarding an aspect of Trump’s net worth. The key here, of course, is not to be concerned with the political issues involved, which can be discussed at tens of thousands of on-line sites, but instead to measure the impact in the betting markets. Does such a drastic move by National Review shake up what has seemingly been Trump momentum (you will note that I use “seemingly” because in the political thread there have been several points made about how fragile the current polling may be)? Or does it not even cause a stir, which can happen when a populist base is the key to a candidacy?
There is only one thing for certain – with the NFL games kicking off late on Sunday, there is time to watch the political talk shows that morning, and it will take multiple bowls of popcorn to sit through the theatre that they may produce. Fortunately, there is a return to sanity later in the day, when Patriots/Broncos take the field…
In the Sights, NFL…
Now that just about every possible matchup, statistic and strategic manifestation has been sorted through, is there something of genuine value to be found on the Sunday board? I believe there is, and it will be #312 Denver Team Total Under.
Many of the details behind this one have been explored here over the course of the week, but the simple reality is that I do not see Peyton Manning being able to attack down the field to make big plays, which means that whatever points the Broncos are going to get to the scoreboard will have to come from methodical and time-consuming drives, especially since the Patriots are unlikely to give anything easy away (unlike the Steelers last week, when three of the five Denver FGs came on drives that started in Pittsburgh territory).
You should be able to find 20.5 here, possibly a 21 on game day. It means a distribution of either three touchdowns, or two touchdowns and several FGs, for there to be jeopardy, and that is taxing for an offense that only had two drives get to at least 40 yards vs. Pittsburgh last week. Now the films of that game, and Manning’s limitations, are available to the Patriots, so expect to see them load the box on defense, often having all 11 players within a dozen yards of the line of scrimmage at the snap, which makes the Bronco task even more difficult. While Jerod Mayo will be missed, with both Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins looking ready at practice this week the pieces are there to get this job done, especially with Manning’s lack of mobility a factor against a group that was #2 in the NFL in sack percentage this season.
If you would like to listen to more on Sunday's games, the weekly podcast that I do with Steve Fezzik and R. J. Bell can be found here -
In the Sights, NCAA hoops…
The matchups did not work for Utah State against #636 San Diego State (6:00 Eastern) when Stew Morrill was on the Aggie sidelines, and they have not changed much this season – the Aztecs are bigger and more athletic, yet also do not mind playing at a slow pace, and as such have not been frustrated by the intricacies in the Utah State playbook. It has been a 5-0 SU and ATS run by San Diego State since these teams became conference partners, and that includes wins of 60-45 and 62-42 in the two games played on this floor, plus 73-39 on a neutral in the MWC tournament. This afternoon looks like more of the same.
Steve Fisher’s team is once again long and athletic, and is leading the MWC in defense and rebounding. That is a tough counter for Utah State, and note that while the Aggies hung tough on the scoreboard in the earlier 70-67 home loss in Logan, there was a major spin of the roulette wheel at the FT line in that one – they were 24-29, compared to just 10-20 for the Aztecs, and that negated a floor game that was once again controlled by SDS, which had eight more rebounds, three more steals and six more assists. Through six conference games it has been a +53 on the boards for the Aztecs, compared to -17 for the Aggies, so the disparity in the first meeting continued the pattern, and in Viejas Arena that gap can grow even wider, with the host also getting the likely boost of Matt Shrigley making his first appearance of the season. With -7.5 readily available, the home team brings solid value.
In the Sights, NBA…
The Cavaliers have been a focus point twice since that Monday debacle vs. Golden State, a First Half ticket at Brooklyn and then a Money Line investment vs. the Clippers, and I believe the circumstances of the last 24 hours only help the energy level for tonight, so it is #512 Cleveland First Half (8:35 Eastern) again. As was the case on Wednesday, I am not interested in laying double digits with a team not concerned about getting big margins, which can leave the back-door open, but there will be a concerted focus on bolting out of the gate well under Tyronn Lue, and that should lead to an explosive opening tonight, especially with the ABC cameras on hand, and the Bulls particularly vulnerable.
This will be the 9th court change in 14 days for Chicago and the Bulls have been struggling badly through the stretch, 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS through the first eight, coming up 76.5 points short of the market expectations in regulation. Matching the Cavalier energy in the early stages will not be easy, with Jimmy Butler having gone 38:29 and Derrick Rose 36:08 at Boston last night, and with Kirk Hinrich unlikely to go, exacerbating a rotation already missing Joakim Noah and Mike Dunleavy, Fred Hoiberg does not many tools at his disposal to avoid losing contact early.
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