Point Blank – January 8
Weekend Edition – Bama/Clemson and Wild Cards…A question as to whether the weather really matters in Minneapolis…From a Power Ratings standpoint there are Devils in the ASU details…
The football begins to get rather serious this weekend, college basketball conference play is now in full swing, and the NBA grind continues. There is a lot of work to do, so let’s get to it…
Extreme weather makes for great conversation, but what about genuine football impact?
You will read and hear a lot about the weather in Minnesota for Sunday, the current projections calling for Seahawks/Vikings to be one of the coldest games ever. There have been six games with kickoff temperatures below zero, and three more right at zero. Here is how the current forecast looks –
12:05 PM CST on January 10, 2016
| 11:00 AM | 12:00 PM | 1:00 PM | 2:00 PM | 3:00 PM | 4:00 PM |
Wind |
6 mph NW |
6 mph WNW |
6 mph WNW |
6 mph WNW |
6 mph West |
6 mph West |
Conditions |
Clear |
Clear |
Clear |
Clear |
Clear |
Clear |
Temperature |
0 °F |
1 °F |
2 °F |
3 °F |
4 °F |
3 °F |
Humidity |
76 % |
71 % |
70 % |
69 % |
68 % |
70 % |
Chance of Rain |
0 % |
0 % |
0 % |
0 % |
0 % |
0 % |
While it will generate much commentary, what about the genuine impact on the game? I am not sure it will be a significant factor at all. First is the fact that there will not be much wind, the biggest issue for games, and no precipitation. Second is that much has changed through the years, as film clips of the Cowboys/Packers “Ice Bowl” inevitably make the rounds this weekend. The field will be in pristine shape because of the heating units, the footballs will also be kept at the proper temperatures, and the high tech gear for the players, some of which you can read about here also helps to normalize the setting.
Naturally there has been money to the Under, 42 now down to 39.5, but the conditions themselves do not necessarily call for that. Should that market direction continue, 38 is a “go” number, but I am not sure it can get that far.
As to the Side, is there a reason to believe that the Vikings can handle this a little better, since they have practiced outdoors all week, and in their second season of playing at TCF Bank Stadium might be a little better acclimated? There is a kernel of merit there. And there is a practical aspect in play – under what is projected to be a clear sky, the Vikings will have the sun shining on their side of the field, while the Seahawks will be in the shadows. There is a major difference in temperature for that on such a day, which might lead to some discomfort for Seattle.
Here is what you should watch most closely in the early stages, and it was likely going to be a major focus anyway – the condition of Marshawn Lynch. There are two entirely different possibilities in play for him in these playoffs. First, will he be rusty and out of shape, which could be exacerbated by the cold, making it more difficult to get into gear? Or second, does the fact that Lynch has not taken a full season’s worth of hits actually leave him with much more in the tank than usual for this time of the campaign, and in particular make him an end-game force? The answer to those riddles does not make for easy speculation, but once the game begins that is where the Eye Test will go first.
About Last Night, Arizona State edition…
Back on Monday there was a take on the difficulty of grading Arizona State’s loss to Arizona, with a pair of technical fouls assessed to Bobby Hurley in the late stages making the final score look much worse than the actual game flow had been. If you only followed the scoring flow last night you might believe it was more of the same – the Sun Devils trailed USC by just 65-63, and had possession of the ball, with 1:10 remaining, before losing 75-65. You could easily make the case that they were a bit unlucky again, and hence perhaps be a bit under-rated. But in terms of last night, that would be wrong.
The Arizona State end-game was simply hideous. Until a meaningless lay-up by Gerry Blakes with 0:02 remaining against a matador Trojan defense, the Sun Devils had gone five straight possessions without scoring, and they were hideous possessions. Those five trips combined only used 34 seconds, with some terrible shots being fired towards the rim. How bad was it? While you might think that the USC 65 became 75 because of free throw shooting, there were only two Trojan attempts in that stretch. Instead they got a dunk from Chimezie Metu, and layups from Katin Reinhardt, Julian Jacobs and Jordan McLaughlin against a disheveled defense that had no floor balance at all, a consequence of how bad the ASU shots were at the other end.
Sometimes in the final minute of a game things can go badly for a team on the scoreboard even though they are doing the right things – when trailing on a basketball court, it can happen. For Arizona State that was not the case on Thursday, the final 1:10 of that one being just about as poorly as the sport can be played. As such, there is nothing wrong with using that final score and attaching the full merit to it, instead of isolating for what may appeared to have been a closer game.
In the Sights, NFL…
This one is not going to be a surprise if you have been reading along all week, but now that +3 at -110 is showing, with +3 -115 an easy find this morning, #106 Cincinnati will go into the pocket. It is a line that does not reflect the current realities of this matchup.
The belief that A. J. McCarron could fit well into the Bengal offense was discussed here from the get-go, and while there is still not a lot of NFL experience under his belt, he is not a stranger to big-game pressure, having twice played in the BCS National Championship game with Alabama, the Crimson Tide winning each time. His 119 attempts have checked in at 97.1 on the Passer Rating scale; pro-rated for a full season that puts him #9 in the NFL, with forthcoming MVP Cam Newton residing at #8. And while there will be the usual bemoaning of those past Cincinnati playoff failures, consider that when they lost to the Colts last January, A. J. Green, Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert were not on the field. This particular group is 0-0 in playoff games.
The flip side is that the marketplace has not attached nearly the weight to the likely DeAngelo Williams absence as I have. Williams has not practiced this week, and the Steelers did downgrade him the “Doubftul” this morning. Fitz Toussaint is not just lacking in experience he is also lacking in pedigree, and his ability to step in to a full-time role in this offense is even more limited because he was with Baltimore, and not Pittsburgh, in training camp. How much might this matter? It was just a calendar year ago that the Steelers went into this round of the playoffs against the Ravens without a lead RB, having to fill in for Le’Veon bell with the trio of Ben Tate, Josh Harris and Dri Archer, and they were handled 30-17 at Heinz Field. Without a ground game to balance the offense, Ben Roethlisberger was sacked five times, and threw a pair of interceptions. I believe those problems raise their head again here, with pass blocking on the road in front of a hostile crowd* a long-term issue in this league (* - yes, the Steelers have a strong record in this stadium in the past, but during the regular season they have had good fan support here; those tickets are much tougher to come by at playoff time).
For much more detail on this week’s NFL games, you can listen to the weekly podcast that I do with Steve Fezzik and RJ Bell here, and there is even some Clemson/Alabama talk.
Now for a whole lot more on the Monday showdown…
In the Sights, Roll Tide…
The timing is also right to go ahead and get #151 Alabama in pocket, with enough -6.5 out there to get locked in. There is indeed a fly in the ointment for the Crimson Tide in this matchup, the mobility of DeShaun Watson being something that has given Nick Saban defenses trouble in the past. But that gets mitigated by the fact that it is the only sub-matchup that I see the Tigers winning, and over the course of 60 minutes they could actually play a terrific game and still lose by seven. Should they play less than terrific, this scoreboard can get away.
Clemson brings a couple of prime areas of vulnerability. First is that there is an adequate OL in front of Watson, but not a great one, and that matchup against the best defensive front I have charted in memory is going to be lost. The Tigers made things happen offensively via the abilities of Watson and the other playmakers to make things happen in the open field, not because they were knocking the other side off the line of scrimmage. As good as Watson is, expect to see him on his heels quite a bit, having to react to the defense, instead of making the defense react to him.
The second Clemson weakness was something that was written about before the matchup vs. Oklahoma – this is a young and talented defense, but one that lacks depth, with only one junior reserve, and all the others being freshmen or sophomores. It did not come fully into play against the Sooners because of both the game flow, and injuries to Samajie Perine and Joe Mixon, But now they go up against the kind of physical ground attack between the tackles that they did not see a lot of this season, and their ability to hold up for the full four quarters is a question mark.
Clemson will compete hard, and the Tigers will have their moments, especially in the early stages. But Alabama is not only immensely talented, but that talent level also enables the Crimson Tide to be fundamentally sound without having to take risks, and that puts up a four quarter wall of football that is difficult to climb over. They are not strangers to this spotlight, and I believe will methodically pull away in the second half, the final margin getting into double figures.
In the Sights, Sunday Hoops…
#846 Wake Forest (8:00 Eastern) did not pan out when an attempt was made to use the Demon Deacons superior depth vs. Duke on Wednesday, but there were some positives from Danny Manning’s team that night, in particular Cody Miller-McIntyre showing that he is now back to full health, with 20 points, seven rebounds and three assists. There were also the 21 points and 12 rebounds from Devin Thomas inside, but while the efficiency of getting that production in just 27:00 is major, it was the 27 count that did them in. Thomas was issued a technical after receiving his second foul early in the second half, Wake only trailing 52-49 at the time, and it was when he had to sit down after picking up foul #4, when it was 67-63, that the game broke open.
The first instinct was to question the poise of a key senior in such a key game, but as it turns out it may have been a technical by accident, Thomas frustrated by his own bad defensive play that led to the foul, and not n over-reaction to the call - “That was an ego technical. I slapped the backboard, which I probably shouldn’t have done, and the ref just had a big ego and gave me a technical. I frustrated myself and made a bad play. (referee Roger Ayers) thought I was upset at the call and I got a technical.’’ As such, it is easier to trust Thomas to play with the proper energy and composure tonight, and it helps set up another setting in which the Wolfpack can use their depth to wear an opponent down.
Having lost Tevor Lacey to early departure, and then seeing Terry Henderson go down with an early injury, Mark Gottfried only has even players in his rotation right now, and it may already be taking a toll on floor leader Cat Barber, who has played 283:18 over the last seven games because of the OT at Virginia Tech. That certainly was not Gottfried’s plan, but the problem is that his team is so limited that they could not put away the likes of High Point (76-73), UNC-Greensboro (58-52) or Northeastern (72-66), which forced Barber to go the distance in those non-league affairs. Because of that fatigue may already be a part of his game – in the first two ACC outings he shot just 14-43 from the field, and only came up with six assists over those 85 minutes, part of why the Wolfpack only connected on 34.1 percent from the field in those defeats.
It does not get any easier for State tonight, and Manning is certainly clued in as to how to play it - “Their rotation goes about seven deep. So we’ve got to try to extend that and get up and down and put mileage on those guys throughout the course of the game — especially early on.’’ Look for Wake to spit out the frustration of the Duke defeat, and gradually take control against a vulnerable opponent that may struggle to stand up for the full 40 minutes.
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