Point Blank – December 23-25
Christmas Edition - Make Noel mean No Losers…A homecoming on the road for Mississippi State…
The Christmas Holidays may bring visions of dancing sugar plums and all sorts of positive memories, many of them centered around receiving gifts, and for those that are inclined to attempt to profit from the outcome of sporting events, the notion of winners being gift-wrapped over the next few days would naturally come to mind. It is something that we all need to be careful with, because it can be an awkward time for those playing the games, which means taking a step back before first predicting the outcomes, and then grading them as they come in. If you make your starting point a “Noel” in which it translates to “No L”, for “No Losers”, then you are on your way.
The conundrum begins with the notion that while many get time off from work to spend with friends and family, many of those in the sporting world do not. It is business as usual in the NFL, and while the NBA takes Christmas Eve off, there is a full board tonight, and five games on Friday. As such, your starting point on this particular week is to put yourselves into the shoes of the players, and gauge the impact that the Holiday cycle can have on preparation. For as much as we isolate them into being performers on a stage, they are all still human beings, the overwhelming majority having the same desire for a little festivity as the rest of us.
Where should your starting point be? There is little about this cycle that can lead any particular team to play better, but there sure as hell are issues that can lead some of the teams to play worse. Begin the process from the bottom up, and you may be surprised what you can find.
The logic is simple. As I note here often (though perhaps not often enough), while the scoreboard does not get activated until the opening kickoff, the games are actually in play all week – each practice, every film room session, and all time in the weight room are all a part of how the games will play out, even if they can not be directly charted into the box scores. Lessen the intensity in any of those areas, and no matter how physically ready to go a team may feel on Sunday, their chances to play well have been greatly reduced.
So where is the starting point for this board? Begin with teams that having both losing records, and no chance to back into the playoffs, if playing on the road. They are going to be the most susceptible to losing focus during the week, and it is easy to understand when you do lace up their shoes – with no major target to aim for, the game result can take on a lesser importance on this particular week, especially when there is the reprieve of playing next Sunday that enables the to spit out the taste of a bad showing. I do not think that it is as bad for home teams, since they are not as rushed to get through their Holiday cycles, no trips to the airport awaiting.
Let’s isolate this week’s NFL list of teams that fit the “Bah Humbug” model, those that may find their upcoming game to be a nuisance -
San Diego
Chicago
Dallas
San Francisco
Cleveland
St. Louis
Note that Jacksonville was not placed on the list because the Jaguars are still alive in the AFC South, albeit a long-shot.
There is nothing automatic about this list in terms of a play-against aspect, but instead the decision to make the reading between the lines heightened on these teams during the week. I preset a few of them in this week’s NFL review on Tuesday, beginning with the Chargers on Thursday night. There was a lot of emotion spent in winning what was likely their final home game in San Diego on Sunday, so does that leave them drained and disinterested in having to travel to play on Christmas Eve, perhaps more looking forward to having the weekend off, getting back to spend time with their families?
And then there are the Bears. They were particularly flat against Minnesota, perhaps a result of having so many players in for try-outs last week, which may be worth following closely because they are at it again.
As for the NBA, that full board tonight can be a mine-field, because most of the teams will be heading into multiple days off, save for those involved in the Friday marathon. As for the Friday games, it has become such a tradition that the players seem to relish participating in them, a chance to get on national television in front of a broader audience than their other regular season games. And with the league doing a nice job of creating showcase matchups on Christmas, it also spurs the players on to a higher level of intensity.
College sports? There is a little savvy on that front – the only teams having to play on Christmas Eve/Day will be doing so in Hawaii and the Bahamas, which can help to keep them motivated. For these teams the Holiday does not create any particular negatives.
In the Sights…
We can put some of those Holiday sentiments into play on the hardwoods tonight, as a downtrodden Northern Colorado team that should be thinking of little more than getting back to Greeley has to play the second road game in three nights, and is out-gunned vs. #776 Mississippi State. The fact that the setting at the Mississippi Coliseum in Jackson matters in a big way for the Bulldogs makes it even better.
To say that the Bears have been awful defensively would be an under-statement – they rate an abysmal #351 in defensive efficiency, the combination of not guarding the basket well (#342 in effective FG%), nor taking the ball away from the opposition (#308 in steals). In their only step-up road outings they were routed 109-72 at Kansas and 82-52 at Colorado, and there is nothing about the timing, or the specific opponent, that would suggest that their intensity ramps up tonight.
It is a much different story for the Bulldogs, as Ben Howland coaches in Jackson for what will be the first of many games around this time of the calendar With State key cogs Malik Newman, Fred Thomas and Quinndary Weatherspoon all hailing from Jackson, along with reserve Carter Holmes, this becomes a special homecoming, one that likely brings an even better crowd than if the game was in Starkville. With this being the only game in a 12-day span look for a high intensity from the Bulldogs, and a showcase win against an opponent that will not put up all that much resistance.
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