Point Blank – November 20
The Weekend Edition – Weathering the NCAA board…Time to drive a fast Car(r) through Detroit…Courting some Friday hoops advantages…Are these more than just W’s for the Warriors, and L’s for the Clippers…Developing an attitude regarding altitude…
This week began with a Monday take on how the college football landscape changes in November, the physical aspect of play becoming more important, as well as trying to understand the various motivations that also matter much more at this stage. Now the calendar comes into play in another direction – get ready for Winter Storm Bella. This is a major front that will be working its way across the upper middle of the United States, from west to east, bringing cold temperatures, some heavy winds, and the first significant snowfall of the winter to come.
This is going to impact a lot of games, so be prepared to make it a part of your handicapping processes. While weather tracking is not easy at the best of times, large fronts like this can be even more difficult, especially in terms of understanding the boundaries – which games will have snow, and which will have a cold rain, the latter actually being more of a problem for the players.
The big issues are 1. Wind; 2. Cold; 3. Rain; and 4. Snow, in that order. Wind impacts play more than anything, hampering both the passing and kicking games. Cold can be a particular issue if a team from a warmer area is involved, and also lessens the impact the crowds can have on games. So as you begin to sort through, consider the following home teams to be in the mix this week: #322 Akron, #334 Kansas, #346 Middle Tennessee State, #348 Minnesota, #356 Wisconsin, #364 Tulsa, #368 Missouri, #370 Oklahoma State, #372 Ohio State, #374 Oklahoma, #382 Kansas State, #400 Vanderbilt and #414 Iowa.
Your focus now turns towards the visiting teams, and note that for college athletes, some of this can be a mind game. I found a good take on that coming from Tennessee, where the Vols will go from practicing in the mid-70s this week to their game at Missouri that could see the wind chill drop down into the teens.
So what do you look for? Teams that are tougher at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, since cold and wind can shrink the field. Not only is it more difficult to throw accurate passes, but think about the cold hands of receivers trying to make catches. Naturally many of the teams in the upper Midwest, such as Wisconsin and Minnesota, build their programs around the ground game, and being able to handle these conditions. Others do not, and of particular interest to me today will be charting those wind chills for Baylor and TCU as they head into Oklahoma; offenses that want to spread the field and play at a tempo can be among the most bothered by these conditions.
How do you get your clarifications? That will be an on-going process here, and there will be a request for those of you across that country that are regular contributors to the post-columns threads to help keep us up to date in your area. This is not the kind of storm system that is going to create a bunch of 13-10 slugfests, the impacts are going to be much more subtle than that, so the better the forecasts the better judgments can be made. One of my preferred tracking sources can be found here, which has the added element of the stadium layouts, so that wind direction can be better factored in.
Friday Fantasy QB
You know the drill by now – the goal here each Friday is to search down the boards to find the best QB value per dollar, finding an option that can bring you a good return, while also saving some key roster cash for other positions. This week the call is an easy one - you should not be able to get a QB with a passer rating of 101.5 facing a pass defense allowing 105.7 for as low as Derek Carr is this week, sitting at #8 on the DraftKings board (actually #9, but Andrew Luck will be a scratch), especially with Carr being able to work to Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree on a fast surface in a dome. The Lions are #28 in YPP allowed, and have given up four times as many TD passes (16) as interceptions (4), and I am not sure they bring their best effort this week anyway, still coming down from the clouds of that upset win at Green Bay, and also facing the quick turnaround before hosting the Eagles on Thursday. When are you 2-7 and heading nowhere, those distractions become even more important.
About Last Night…
The logs will record the first two Clippers/Warriors showdowns has having been close battles to the finish, and it may stick in the consciousness of many that Los Angeles led in the fourth quarter each time. I believe a different takeaway is in order -
November 19: Clippers 105 Warriors 96 with 6:40 left; Warriors 124-117 final
November 4: Clippers 98 Warriors 89 with 7:20 left; Warriors 112-108 final
When it has been time to crank it up in the end-game, Golden State delivered knockout punches. That may weigh on the psyche of these teams going forward; the Clippers could not have played much better than they did last night, and indeed have improved their bench, yet they were gassed down the stretch. Those two losses may get inside their heads a bit, while it also shows us an end-game from the Warriors that is likely the NBA’s best the best since the Jordan Bulls.
Courting Advantages
As detailed last Friday, one of the subtle advantages that can be available early in the NCAA hoops season is to look for teams that are at home on a Friday night, when their football team is also home on Saturday. These settings often bring better crowds for those Friday games, since many students and alums make it a double-header weekend, and it also means the players and coaches have a chance to make an early impression, and get some of those fans to come back again.
As noted last week, this is not something to be played without other edges involved, but just on the blind they turned in an 11-7 tally. On the list for this week –
524 Ohio State
526 Kentucky (no added edge - basketball matters much more in Lexington)
528 Pittsburgh
534 Alabama
536 Auburn
582 Maryland (like Kentucky, basketball matters more on this campus right now)
588 Georgia
590 Kansas State
594 Washington State
In the Sights, Hoops…
Finding better home court advantages on the Friday board has already been addressed, but there is another factor that has not been dealt with so far this season that does indeed matter during the non-conference schedule, and to a lesser degree in league play as well – altitude. Teams that are not accustomed to making trips to schools at the higher elevations can find themselves getting winded and wearing down over the course of 40 minutes, and that is among the factors that gets #540 Colorado into play, in a game the Buffaloes can control against a young Portland team. There is a gap in altitude of over 5,000 feet between where the Pilots live, practice, and play their home games and Boulder, and on the court Eric Revenue’s inexperienced Pilots will be looking up as well.
The Buffaloes are loaded with size, talent and experience in the front-court, with 6-10/245 senior Josh Scott and 6-9/240 junior Wesley Gordon an imposing duo, backed by 6-9/255 sophomore Tory Miller. The inside guys are complimented by the emerging 6-6 George King, and 6-7 Tre-Shaun Fletcher on the wings, and Providence transfer Josh Fortune ahs quickly assimilated at guard. This is a team bringing the proper mindset off of a disappointing campaign, and tough openers vs. Iowa State on a neutral court, and at Auburn, have been good for development. Now they settle in for five straight home games to help build a tourney resume, against a team that is not ready to compete at this level yet.
Portland is awfully young in the front-court, where Reveno is still trying to figure out a rotation, with nine players going between 10:00 and 19:00 at UC-Davis, an ugly 79-66 loss in which the Pilots were dominated 53-33 off the glass and allowed 52.6 percent shooting. Now they face a bigger and more talented opponent, which makes it difficult to stay competitive even before the altitude takes its toll, which it should over the second half of play.
In the Sights, NCAA Football…
(Re-posted from the Thursday column).
In Monday’s NCAA edition of “What a Bettor Better Know” a big part of the focus was on gauging just what these late November games bring that is so different from the rest of the season. I believe there is a team that falls into one of the worst of those settings, Mississippi State, and it brings #360 Arkansas (time change to 7:00 Eastern/4:00 Pacific) into play at a more than fair market price. In this one, Dan Mullen’s Bulldogs may be without both their bark, and their bite.
One of the worst settings for any team can come in Game #11, if they are off of a loss in a game they were all-out to win, and have an even bigger opponent in the season finale. State fits that tag. Last week’s showdown vs. Alabama in Starkville brought the Bulldogs one last chance to get into the SEC West race, and turn this season into something special. The mission was not accomplished; they played hard, but got stung by a series of home runs by the Crimson Tide, who scored TDs on a punt return, runs of 74 and 65 yards, and a pass of 60 yards. It would be difficult enough to regain focus off of that defeat if there was also not the foreshadowing of next week’s home game vs. Mississippi, a prime revenge setting after State got beat 31-17 at Oxford last year.
So if your shot at the SEC West is done, and revenge vs. your biggest rival is on deck, what is the motivation for a trip to Arkansas? There is not a major one; the Bulldogs are already assured of a bowl bid, so this game does not change the scope of their season in any way. For the host Razorbacks it is another matter entirely; the momentum built from that overtime win at Ole Miss carried over into last week’s solid destruction of LSU, a game in which they out-rushed the tigers 301-60, and now there is a chance to close out with a pair of wins at home, where their physical style can be a challenge for opponents this late in the season. The Arkansas players will bring plenty of confidence, remembering well how they shut-out LSU and Mississippi by a combined 47-0 on this field last November, and can break open a game that the markets are pricing as being close, but may not be when the final score is posted.
In the Sights, NFL…
#467 Denver was brought to attention back in the Tuesday NFL review, when those +1's were showing, but I thought I would re-post here for those that missed that. The key is a simple one – the markets over-adjusting for the Bronco switch from Peyton Manning to Brock Osweiler, Manning playing at a level that could well make the offense a bit more effective without him. The Chicago defense now has to respect the ball being thrown down the field, which can open up the running lanes for C. J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, and those lanes have already been easy to find against a Bears defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per rush.
Consider the defensive gaps here –
YPR YPP Sack% Int%
Broncos 3.5 5.3 9.4 2.9
Bears 4.6 6.7 4.9 1.7
How often do you find a team in an underdog role with that big of a defensive edge over the favorite?
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