Point Blank – October 12
What a Bettor Better Know – NCAA #6
Randy Edsall and Dan McCarney are gone for good, Steve Sarkisian may be as well, and Kyle Flood returns for Rutgers. Halloween may still be a bit away, but it is a spooky time for coaches across the NCAA landscape. Now to review some of the keys as we look back at the weekend results, as always with an eye towards looking ahead…
Item: A Steve Sarkisian leave of absence, or a disappearance (and why it might not matter all that much)?
This is not a good time to be Sarkisian, with the Sports Mediaverse and the various Anti-Social’s out there almost assuredly going to have a field day with the reasons behind his leave of absence at Southern Cal. You will be best off to avoid most of the noise, but you can find a serious, and yes the word sobering would even be a proper description, account here from the Los Angeles Times. One hopes for the best for Sarkisian, and that he can sort his issues out, but our task here is on what happens to the team, as the schedule now brings an arduous cycle of a trip to Notre Dame, a home game vs. Utah, and a trip to California (more on those Golden Bears in a moment) over the next three weeks. And in truth it is far more likely that the team will miss injured center Max Tuerk, who had made 38 career starts, than Sarkisian.
The bottom line is that several of the Trojan losses in Sarkisian’s first two seasons were head scratchers in which they appeared to be under-coached on the field. They lost three times outright as double-figure favorites, and a defeat vs. Stanford three games back nearly fit that category, a closing line of USC -9.5. As for the players being shell-shocked by the news, the majority of the two-deep was well entrenched in the program before Sarkisian came on board, especially the 18 seniors or juniors starting (counting special teams); they were not his recruits. And as for the difficulty of cleaning up a mess, interim HC Clay Helton, who has been the QB coach here since 2010, and the OC since 2013, has been through the drill before – he coached the team to a 45-20 bowl win over Fresno State two years ago, in the aftermath of the Lane Kiffin/Ed Orgeron circuses.
While it has not been a surprise that the early markets have bought in on Notre Dame this week, pushing the Irish as high as -5.5 already, Helton has been with the upperclassmen throughout their careers, and it might even be a positive transition, especially if Pat Haden and the University turn the remainder of the season into an audition for him to become the permanent HC. That, of course, would require turning the Sarkisian leave of absence into something permanent, but it might be in the best interests of all – it would enable him to take the proper time to get clean, instead of having the pressure of a return to coaching duties hanging over him, and it would enable Helton and the players to commit to the remainder of the season without having to face the continuous distraction of Will-He or Won’t-He questions invading their space.
If +6 becomes available this becomes an intriguing situation, but at that point the thought processes shift to how much impact the loss of Tuerk will mean, a steadying force up front for an OL that does not have another senior on the two-deep, and will start three sophomores this week.
(UPDATING: Sarkisian has been fired by USC early Monday afternoon, likely the best move for all parties in terms of being able to put the focus in the right place going forward).
Item: It was a disappearance, in Denton
You can build an honest case that based on the expectations that the markets placed on the event, the 66-7 loss by North Texas vs. Portland State may have been the worst effort ever turned in on the college gridirons. The Mean Green closed at +4 at the shops that were dealing the game, making it a historic 55-point loss vs. the spread, and in truth it could have been worse – the visiting Vikings did not throw a pass after going ahead 66-0 with 12:27 remaining, while North Texas did not score until there was 1:11 remaining. And this was vs. an opponent that the program had paid $425K to come in and play the non-conference affair.
How bad was it? So bad that instead of a post-game press conference for HC Dan McCarney, there was a hurried appearance by North Texas AD Rick Villarreal to announce that McCarney had been fired. And it was later reported that the terms of the firing had not even been agreed on yet, since McCarney had signed an extension last year that has him under contract until 2019.
Consider what had to be going through Villarreal’s head – up next is a home game against Western Kentucky in from of the CBSC cameras on Thursday night, a setting in which they will be prohibitive underdogs and subject to being blown out. Is it a better showcase for his program with an interim coach, OC Mike Canales, already in place, instead of McCarney finishing out the season as a lame duck? It is an awkward mix for the team on a short practice week, but at least note that Canales has been here for a while, and even served as interim HC for five games back in 2010.
As one tangible part of the team’s failures, you can expect Western’s Brandon Doughty to be licking his chops this week - the North Texas defense does not have an interception of the 142 passes thrown against them, allowing an awful 10.2 per completion (only Texas State rates worse in pass efficiency defense).
Item: From here on out, opponents will have to be “Livin’ on Tulsa Time”
Tulsa’s development under Philip Montgomery was a Monday topic a month ago, the fact that the Art Briles disciple (for 16 years!) was ready to press the pedal to the metal right from the onset with the Golden Hurricanes. It is an intriguing storyline to follow, because the program has a strong legacy, and brings a location from which recruiting players from Texas that want to play fast will be attracted. You can be a half-inch too short, or a few pounds too light, for the SEC or Big 12, and still fit in well at this tempo. There were hints of this when Montgomery took his team to Norman to face Oklahoma in mid-September and never backed down, running 91 plays in a 186-snap marathon, and vs. a superior Houston team it was similar, a 182-snap game. It was when the Golden Hurricanes had a chance to step down in class vs. UL-Monroe this past week that the tempo really got unleashed, however, and it sets a tone for the remainder of the schedule, when they are not out-matched in any of the games. Face Montgomery’s team, and you’ll be living on “Tulsa Time”, which sets up a little musical interlude to carry you through the rest of this read -
Many have covered the song but I have always liked the Clapton versions best, and in some ways his ability to “hear” the song, and bring it to life through his guitar, that reaffirms much of what it is about.
As for what took place on the field, Tulsa got off 107 snaps vs. Monroe. The Golden Hurricanes were not terribly effective, only managing 563 yards out of them, but they never deviated from that pace, and they are likely not going to. What is particularly impressive is that after a sloppy opener vs. Florida Atlantic, which perhaps could be expected from players not accustomed to operating in this gear, over the last four games there have only been three turnovers in 375 snaps, an unexpectedly clean level of execution. A 34-24 final score will not set of any fireworks, but they are building up a stock of explosives that could ignite over the remainder of the campaign.
Item: Warning – when some stats are not what they seem, and be careful of a road dog (Boston College) that just can’t pass
I do not want to be necessarily be leading anyone to a play on Clemson with this take; instead the purpose is to be careful with what may be a trap, and to be sure to think it through carefully, for what may appear to be a most unusual point spread.
Boston College rates #1 in both Pass Efficiency Defense and Rush Defense, which is a phenomenal combination to possess heading into the second Saturday in October. And in truth it is a good Eagle defense, keyed by a physical and aggressive front. Except they are nowhere near what those numbers show, having faced arguably the weakest non-conference schedule of any team, and not going up against many offensive challenges in the ACC either, including benefitting from the rain in that 9-7 loss to Duke.
So here is what you have to be careful with – those numbers might create the appearance of BC being a live dog at Clemson this week. You rarely see a team at the top of the national defensive charts in this pointspread range, and the pundits across Sports Mediaverse may particularly fall into that trap of portraying those gaudy defensive statistics as meaning more than they do.
Here is one thing you absolutely do want to be careful with in the modern era of college football – the road dog that can’t pass, which not only means an inability to pick the locks of back doors, but can actually implode to make things worse. Over their four lined games the Eagles are a hideous 24-70 for 363 yards, with three interceptions. It is a completion percentage reminiscent of the Single Wing days. They did manage to complete a 66-yard TD pass in the rain vs. Duke two weeks ago, but in 12 quarters of ACC action, those are their only points.
Item: Baylor 66 Kansas 7, 6:54 of the 3rd Quarter
Grading blowouts is never easy, and because the NCAA season presents so many, there is a process of understanding them that is essential if you are going to develop better power ratings. A textbook case came from Baylor’s 66-7 win at Kansas on Saturday, a scoreboard and box score that seemingly capture a fair 60-minute result. But they don’t.
The Bears led 52-7 at halftime, and key cogs like QB Seth Russell and RB Shock Linwood did not take the field again. They led 66-7 with 6:54 remaining in the third quarter, and there were to be no more points. Not only does that not give you a proper full game’s worth of data points for each team, but consider the pace as well – there was not a pass thrown over the final 10:12 of play, both coaches content to drain the clock, with only 16 snaps through that span.
You won’t go terribly wrong using that score or box score, but it makes you shudder to think of just how bad that result could have been. While it is no secret that Baylor is special (sitting at a clear #1 on my own ratings), the depths of just how bad things are for David Beaty’s massive rebuilding at Kansas may be difficult to measure through traditional processes. Beaty came in wanting to go fast-tempo early, to showcase his style of football in order to impress potential recruits, but he already recognizes the scoreboard suicide that will be against the Big 12’s upper echelon.
Item: Florida State – four lined games, 274 plays, zero turnovers, but...
Here is the good news for Florida State – after Everett Golson had problems turning the ball over at Notre Dame last year, he has been running an extremely clean offense, with nary a giveaway through their four lined games (I discard the opener vs. Texas State). Golson has brought a needed maturity in running an offense that has the youngest OL in the country. But now the problem – much like the focus on Michigan State last week, with the Spartans still 0-for-the-season ATS despite a significant turnover advantage, the Seminoles are behind schedule.
Florida State is 1-3 ATS, a cumulative -15 ATS, despite being +5 in TO ratio. The only cover the Seminoles did get came in an unusual fashion, a game in which the offense scored less than the point spread at Boston College, but a fumble return for a TD by the defense got them over the hump, 14-0 as -9. That young OL is indeed having its problems, but you may not necessarily notice, with TD runs of 94, 74 and 72 yards greatly inflating a running attack that is not winning a high percentage of the plays attempted. It is something that bears watching through the schedule cycle ahead, for while an unbeaten record and past reputation will carry weight in the betting markets, based strictly on how they have played this season, this team is rather ordinary.
Item: Michigan State has given up more points in the last six quarters (45) than Michigan has all season (38)
A mention of MSU is necessary because the continued over-rating of the Spartans by the Sports Mediaverse is no longer a market secret. Last week’s trading crashed State down from -17 to as low as -12 at Rutgers on Saturday, on the same board that Michigan was elevated from -7 to -10.5 over Northwestern, so the guys behind the counter made a major statement on Sunday night, opening the lower-rated team in the polls as the significant favorite, the Wolverines posted at -6.5 in Ann Arbor.
What was the look-ahead line last week, which was available for low limits? Pick’em. Of course for a better understanding it was not solely Michigan State being humdrum at Rutgers on Saturday night, there was also something being done right by the losing Scarlet Knights…
Item: Welcome back Leonte Carroo
Amidst the lackluster-ness that has been Michigan State, and the suspended-HC-Kyle Flood-cycle that has been Rutgers, you might have easily missing one of the prime reasons why the Spartans and Scarlet Knights were tied 24-24 until just a little over a minute remaining – the return of Carroo from suspension. A case could be made that the team missed Carroo even more than Flood over the last two games, a humbling 28-3 loss at Penn State and a 27-14 win over a Kansas defense that was almost inexcusable – the Jayhawks will allow 27 points by halftime in most of their Big 12 games.
Carroo caught seven passes for 134 yards and three TDs on Saturday night, running free through a decent Michigan State secondary. He nearly opted for the NFL draft this past spring, and will be among the first WRs coming off the board next time around. Whether or not the return of Flood to the sidelines this week makes much of a difference in the season flow remains to be seen, but Carroo is a legit factor, especially in many of the back-door settings the Rutgers passing game will be facing the remainder of the schedule.
Item: Paul Johnson is running low on “options”
While on the subject of point spread runs, one of the most extreme in recent memory has come to a crashing halt, Georgia Tech’s astonishing 8-0 run wrapping around from last season (I do not count the game vs. Jackson State), one that dazzled because the Yellow Jackets beat the expectations by a unheard-of 167 points, nearly three full touchdowns per game.
That cycle created a shock wave in the tracking because it was so difficult to pinpoint the reasons behind it – the two games before the run began were rather uninspiring SU and ATS losses to Duke and North Carolina. Yet somehow that option attack clicked at an amazing rate, beating quality defenses from the likes of Florida State, Georgia, Clemson and Mississippi State along the way. Then it ended.
Over the last four games it has been a dismal 0-4 SU and ATS in which Tech has come up 54.5 points short of the market calls, and even that is misleading – they scored two touchdowns in the final minute of a loss at Notre Dame in which they were never in the hunt. The culprit this time around has largely been injuries, including A-backs Qua Searcy, Broderick Snoddy and TaQuon Marshall, and while it is often “next man up” for the Jackets at the skill positions, that depth is not there this time.
When the option does not go, the Yellow Jackets do not, and to understand just how far they have fallen, take a look at the rushing production in their first three ACC games, compared to how they did against the same programs last year -
Georgia Tech Rush Yards/Per Carry
2014 2015
Duke 282/6.1 173/2.9
NC 376/7.4 264/4.5
Clemson 251/5.0 71/1.7
Those are huge drops, and given the injury situation, and the loss of confidence as the losses pile up, it may be a difficult flow to reverse. Here is how Johnson described the state of affairs in Saturday’s post-game press conference - “Well, I was disappointed with the effort today. We looked like a very poorly coached team. That starts with me. Right from the very opening series offensively. We can’t even take the play call into the huddle without screwing it up. I’ve never experienced anything like this in my coaching career, being as inept as we are on offense.”
Item: Georgia’s Bad Breaks (even though some seemed good at the time)
Of course, Johnson had nothing on Mark Richt when it came to Saturday disappointment. Richt has seen his Georgia team go from being considered a contender for the Playoffs to now shuffling for a much lesser tier of bowl positioning in just two weeks, first being humbled by Alabama, and then losing Nick Chubb, and eventually the game, at Tennessee. There are a couple of things to take away here, because on this weekend even the good breaks the Bulldogs got were not necessarily all that good.
First, losing Chubb is obviously a blow, but perhaps not as big as the markets will make it out to be, with Sony Michel and Keith Marshall already combining for 675 yards at 6.3 per carry, and being more than capable. They are not Chubb, but they are good, with Georgia arguably the deepest team in the nation at RB.
Second is a case study in how football games can flow. The Bulldogs got a pair of what seemed like major breaks at the time, both a fumble and a punt return for TDs in the first half, to build a 24-3 lead in Knoxville. If one is great, two is fantabulous, right? Not necessarily. The downside of defensive or special teams scores is that it means that the defense has to go right back out on the field after the PAT and kickoff, without getting much of a breather, and when it happens twice in a half that can take a toll. It became a topic of discussion in the deep vault of the weekend football thread, the halftime line of Tennessee -.5 a value based on the prospects of fatigue taking over the game, the Georgia defense being burdened by being on the field for 50 snaps already, and that indeed happened – it was a 21-7 run by the Vols after intermission.
When you glance at the box score in a game like that one, with TDs were scored by the defense or special teams, make sure you check the play counts, because they can tell quite a tale, and in this one they did – Tennessee had the ball for 28 more plays Georgia. Allowing 31 first downs and 519 yards may look like a dismal outing from the Bulldog defense, but that must be tempered by the workload they were up against, both in number of plays, but also fatigue associated with them. They are better than those base numbers will show, which may open some opportunities later in the season. But there is another defense around the country that is every bit as bad as some horrific numbers indicate, and may get even worse…
Item: Eastern Michigan faced 53 more rush attempts
It has already been an on-going theme here, but the nation’s worst rush defense, and one that is on pace to be the worst in quite some time, is having its prime weakness being exploited in a fashion that makes things even worse – if you can not stop the run it opens the doors for the opposition to keep hammering away, which makes attrition an issue in future weeks. That is the problem for Chris Creighton and his Eagles, who do not get to their bye week until after the 11th game.
The Eagles have allowed 460 more rushing yards than any other team, and with Akron running it 53 times on Saturday, they have had to defend 325 overland plays. That is an exhausting toll, and there are no real options to be able to work around it. Now this week it is a trip to Toledo and that one-two RB combination of Kareem Hunt (now healthy) and Terry Swanson, who combined for 246 yards and three TDs in easily handling Kent State on Saturday.
Item: More on the California defense
While on the theme of defenses that have already made appearances here, there is also a continuation with what is going on at California, but fortunately for Spike Dykes and the Golden Bears it is about good news. Pay particular attention to how well that unit held up at Utah – despite the offense turning the ball over six times, including five Jared Goff interceptions, the Cal defense never broke. They did not allow a TD in the second half, and in particular note how well their depth is holding up in the latter stages of games – with all three of their Pac 12 games up for grabs in the fourth quarter, the Golden Bears have allowed only a pair of field goals across 45 minutes in those closing stanzas. They have also come up with at least two takeaways in every game so far, including 12 through those first three Pac 12 affairs.
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