Point Blank – October 10
The MLB Playoffs Saturday Edition
Three games into the National League playoffs and there have been 11 runs scored, including having the home team bat in the ninth inning twice. Buckle in, because it is going to be that way. Now on to the Saturday board; as will be the case throughout playoffs, comments from good-guy Eric Strasser of PalmTree Baseball will be in italics -
Cubs/Cardinals Game #2
For all of the excitement about the Cubs being here, and that great roster of young talent, there are realities in play – through two road playoff games Kyle Schwarber and Dexter Fowler have seven hits, all other non-pitchers are 3-42 with 16 strikeouts. Yadier Molina may not be able to hold the bat well, but his ability to call a game against a young lineup is a huge factor in this series. It takes us to Jaime Garcia today, and since Eric and I are lining up, I will let him pitch this inning while I watch the football board jump around -
914 Cardinals -130. There’s a popular saying in the boxing world “styles make fights”. It’s also true of Saturday’s Cardinals/Cubs game. Jaime Garcia doesn’t have a great arm and can’t throw the fastball by most hitters. But he has great control including inside the strike zone and he is incredibly deceptive, especially to hitters who never have faced him before. He’s getting great changeup because his delivery is identical in the changeup and the fastball. As you’re probably expecting most of the Cubs have never faced him before including, Bryant and Schwarber. I think Garcia can get through the lineup twice without too much trouble. That’s almost a polar opposite of the Cardinals results against Hendriks. Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday and Jhonny Peralta are a combined 16 – 33 against him with an OPS over .950.
Using my own numbers I make the Cardinals +5.5 base-runners, here including bullpens, so -130 is cheap. But the world will continue to bet the Cubs and it should be even lower before game time.
Mets/Dodgers Game #2
One of the notations yesterday was how much I was looking forward to this series despite the fact that there would be nothing from the pocket in play in the opener, and it played to the billing, with 27 strikeouts, 12 hits and five walks. That is what it is going to be, and inning-by-inning flow in which runs are going to be precious. Yet there is something available this morning that was not expected – you can actually find a “6” available, some for as low as -115. That means time to play, with two starters that are not going to give anything away via walks, and Eric is ready to close this one out and get the save as well –
916 Mets/Dodgers under 6-120. There has been and will continue to be a lot of talk about Noah Syndergaard on the road. His road numbers haven’t matched his home numbers, but he’s also pitched to a lot of bad luck. I think we see the game very similar to last night and I think both pitchers will dominate the opposing lineup.
Zack Greinke is coming off an amazing season. 200 strikeouts in 222 innings and a 0.84 WH IP. Syndergaard was brilliant in his own right, especially for a rookie. Over a strikeout per inning and a 1.05 WHIP. There just aren’t enough opportunities to build big innings against either of these pitchers; few base-runners and both are very capable of a strikeout when they need it.
Don Mattingly made a typical 2015 managers mistake last night using a bullpen also-ran for the key at-bat in the game against David Wright after removing Kershaw. If it’s me, and I’m down a run in the late innings in that spot, I bring in Jansen to make sure I get the out that keeps me in the game. All his closer did for him last night was watch while the game was lost. Neither bullpen shined last night but both starters will go deep, and there will not be opportunities for big innings against the middle relief.
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