Point Blank – October 8
Colts/Texans, and Bill O’Brien’s stopwatch…Astros vs. Royals – What you need to know
Among the more confounding aspects of the opening salvo to the 2015 NFL season has been the unexpected pace that Bill O’Brien has set for the Houston offense. A team that entered the season without a returning starter at QB, their best WR (Andre Johnson) departed, and their best RB (Arian Foster) unavailable, has been snapping the ball at a scintillating 20.9 seconds, more than a full second quicker than anyone else in the league, and seven seconds faster than the league average. It is also a full second faster than the pace that Chip Kelly’s Eagles played at last year.
For tonight, the task of trying to find an edge in Indianapolis/Houston, and also in getting the best possible handle on the Texans going forward, requires an understanding of that pacing. Is there some sort of savant genius involved, going fast to make up for a talent disadvantage instead of the usual coaching gambit of slowing things down? As it has turned out so far, no – Houston rates #30 in offensive efficiency at Football Outsiders, a dismal compilation of being #30 in passing and #28 in running.
It begs a rather obvious question, but one that I have not found an answer for yet – if Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer are your QB options, just what in hell would make you want to play fast? Tonight provides a stand-alone session in order to try to glean some answers, but even this setting gets murkier with WRs Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts, who have combined for 35 catches for 446 yards, not playing. Their absence will force rookies Keith Mumphery and Jalen Strong into prime spots in the rotation. It would seem like insanity to keep playing so fast under these circumstances, but it has basically been a level of insanity since the opening snap of the season.
As for the QB debate, there are obvious short-comings for each, and note what O’Brien had to say about Mallett after the offense fell down 42-0 through three quarters with him at the helm vs. Atlanta – “He’s got to do a better job of throwing the ball more accurately, be more controlled in the pocket, don’t turn it over, get us into the right play.” Or, basically do everything better. It was not a ringing endorsement, and now Mallett also has to play with the added pressure of a potentially quick trigger looming over his shoulder.
The pacing of this offense has also led to a dismal turnover differential, but one that also requires further study, because a big part of that ratio has come from the defense not making plays, going from the top of the league in taking the ball away last year to floundering near the bottom through the first four games. In searching for the reasons behind that I came across a quote from Romeo Crennell that was used in the Tuesday NFL thread, and it is worthy of placement on the front page - "This year it’s not bouncing as often our way. We’ve gotten our hands on a couple balls, but last year when we got our hands on the ball it resulted in turnovers for us. This year, we get our hands on the ball and we drop it, the offense comes back and they get to line up a play again. You can talk about it, you can kind of do some drills, catching drills, drills to try to get the ball out when the opportunity comes. A lot of it has to do with being able to make the catch when the ball comes and hits you in the hands."
Naturally that makes this game more for the Eye Test to learn from, rather than to try to profit, especially with Andrew Luck being downgraded this morning. But one of the key avenues of developing your handicapping techniques will be watching games to learn, and to profit from later, rather than viewing through the often murky lens of rooting home a bet.
About Last Night…
Dexter Fowler and Kyle Schwarber had five hits, scored four runs, and drove in four. All other players in Cubs/Pirates contributed six hits, none for extra bases, with two walks and 21 strikeouts. Welcome to the National Playoffs, 2015 style.
Astros/Royals Time
It is an all-AL Thursday, and you can have series plays to be rooting for in each. In yesterday’s column there was a breakdown of the Texas/Toronto series, and advantages that both Eric Strasser (Palm Tree Baseball) and I believe go beyond the way that one is being priced. And Eric is ready to step in on the Houston/Kansas City series as well, this time on the underdog side of the equation (as will be the case throughout the playoffs, Eric’s comments will be in italics) -
I’m very surprised the Royals are a -145 favorite over the Astros. I’ve done a lot of work on this over the past 18 hours and my line is Astros -115.
The 2016 Astros are a lot like the 2015 Royals in the sense that you they haven’t been part of the postseason party in a while. They showed Tuesday night they weren’t afraid of the moment. Sure they strike out a lot, and that’s a concern against the power arms of the Royals. But the Astros followed the formula perfectly by hitting a couple of home runs and winning with pitching. They also went crazy on the bases once Betances entered the game. Those are all good signs moving forward.
The Royals were one win away from winning the World Series in 2014. They also got off to a great start in 2015 and ran away from what turned out to be a very mediocre division. The Astros also got off to a great start in 2015 but really struggled during the second half of the season and allowed the Rangers to steal the division from them. That hurts because now they only have Dallas Keuchel available for one start in the series. But if you look at the numbers, the Astros are the better team.
The Royals won 95 games and the Astros only won 86 games. But Houston played in a much tougher division and their strength of schedule was at least 15% more difficult. Despite all that, the Astros had a run differential of +111 versus +83 for the Royals. The Astros scored more runs (729 to 724) and what will be surprising to some is that they allowed fewer runs (618 to 641). Because they hit a lot more home runs in the Royals, they had a better team OPS (.752 vs. .734). They drew over 100 more walks and stole 17 more bases.
The one area where the public perception is that the Royals dominate is the bullpens. The Royals were indeed the top bullpen in the American League, but the Astros were second. The Royals bullpen pitched to a .629 OPS against while the Astros were .638. That is a negligible difference over a full season, especially considering the two ballparks. Using the Park factors.com numbers Minute Maid Park plays 2% above the average ballpark in runs scored while Kaufman Stadium is 5% below. There is a big difference in bullpen ERA. The Royals were tops in the American League at 2.72 while the Astros check-in at 3.27. It’s important to remember however that most of these numbers were compiled with Greg Holland as the Royals closer. He’s gone for the season so now Wade Davis pitches the ninth-inning and the quality of the setup man drops.
Despite the numbers, the Royals have two big advantages. The first I mentioned already as Keuchel will be limited to one start, and possibly a few relief innings in game five. The second is very important. Despite winning on the road last night in Yankee Stadium, the Astros were only 33 – 48 away from Minute Maid Park the season. They are going to have to win at least one game in Kansas City to win the series.
Colin McHugh gets the game one start against Yordano Ventura. Johnny Cueto goes in game two and we don’t yet know his opponent. What we do know is that the Royals don’t have a left-handed starter to throw at the Astros, and only Danny Duffy or Franklin Morales out of the pen. Considering the Astros are better against RHP, I like the matchup.
A Point Blank notation – I have written here a few times since last season about Johnny Cueto’s remarkable form from the Great American Ballpark, and whether it was truly a “home field” advantage in general, or his preference for that particular venue. As such it must be noted how his 2015 charts:
GAB Others Kaufman
W/L 3-1 7-12 3-4
ERA 1.86 3.97 4.40
K/9 8.8 7.0 7.0
That is rather meaningful, and do not get caught in the trap of pure Home/Away, since you can see the GABP/Kaufman differences. The Royals did not quite get what they thought they were getting, and the markets did not pick up on it – by playing against the Royals in all 15 of his starts, you would have cashed a +$934. Now back to Eric to close it out and get the save -
The Royals having the home field advantage looms big in the series, but I still like the Astros to advance. At the current price of #883 Houston +125 or more (PB Note: +130 is easy to find in Nevada, currently available at William Hill, the Wynn, Caesar’s and Coasts) I think it’s a solid play with good value.
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