Point Blank – August 24
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFLX2...Ray may not be "robbied" of a win this time...
Item: Losing Jordy Nelson this late in camp…
There is never a good time to lose a player like Nelson. He caught 183 passes the last two seasons, with only Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown and Julio Jones being targeted more last year, and the special chemistry he had with Aaron Rodgers enabled so much improvisation to happen. Even when you put a talented replacement out there, you do not get that connection.
Yes, there is Randall Cobb, who caught 91 passes in 2014, a dozen going for TDs. But Cobb found himself with operating room because Nelson was the #1 priority for defenses. Now he becomes that, and while he has a lot of ability, coverage schemes towards him will shift dramatically. Can someone be signed to fill in? This is an awkward time for that. As noted last week in discussing Kelvin Benjamin’s loss for Carolina, the pickings are thing, with Wes Welker and Reggie Wayne leading the way. That list does not become longer until September 1, when teams cut down to 75, and then again on September 5, when the rosters go to 53. There may be some help there, but since Rodgers will likely not play in pre-season game #4, it means that any player signed next week would not get to work with him in game action until the scoreboard counts for real.
What is left on hand? Actually some upside – Davante Adams was a #2 pick in 2014 that flashed major potential as a rookie, and has had a strong off-season. But the ideal Packer scenario was for him to develop behind Nelson and Cobb, rather than being thrust into such a major role at this stage. He was an emerging #3 when the offense spread the field, but could it now mean a lot more two-WR sets, with FB Jon Kuhn becoming a bigger part of the designs? To stay with the three-WR attack now means rookie Ty Montgomery and second-year Jeff Janis stepping in, and while both bring potential neither is ready to be an every down player yet.
Nelson is a terrific talent, which is not easy to replace. His chemistry with Rodgers may be something that is impossible to re-create.
Item – Losing Maurkice Pouncey this late in camp…
Green Bay was not the only team to suffer a major blow at Heinz Field on Sunday, with Pouncey also lost indefinitely. But for a Steeler offense that was ready to challenge the Packers as one of the NFL’s true elite, it may not be as difficult to patch together. Ben Roethlisberger & company had to play with Pouncey in 15 of 16 games in 2013, and while Cody Wallace is not in Pouncey’s class as a performer, he is at least ready to step in.
Wallace is entering his 8th NFL season, and was signed as a free agent by Pittsburgh in 2013. He has had six starts across two seasons, knows the system well, and when Pouncey began training camp on the PUP list, he was the one getting reps with the first team offense. He is not as good as Pouncey, but the chemistry and flow of the offense are not disrupting. Where there can be a problem is if there is another injury – while the starting positions are set, this group is paper-thin. Mike Tomlin will have to decide whether reserve guard Chris Hubbard can also be the #2 guy at center, or whether a roster spot can be given to undrafted rookie free agent B. J. Finney.
Item – If there is a QB controversy in Cleveland, it is because Josh McCown has been bad, not Johnny Manziel being good…
OK, so here comes the natural progression from the Sports Mediaverse regarding Johnny Manziel – there is a QB battle in Cleveland! But it is not because Manziel has necessarily been any better. Yes, the Browns scored an actual TD with him at the helm vs. Buffalo, but that was in the fourth quarter against the back end of the Bills defense. His timing and patience in the pocket have only improved marginally.
Yet Manziel may legitimately end up in the hunt to start, largely because Josh McCown has not had a good camp. As noted in last Thursday’s column leading up to the Buffalo game, the offense struggled badly against the Bills in the joint practices, and in the game McCown only generated 57 yards out of 10 pass attempts, with a pair of INTs. Given the yardage value of picks, he was actually at a negative in YPP. That is hardly the kind of offensive rhythm a team wants to have with a new QB, but it is not an easy process for a guy that is with his seventh different team. McCown is having to adjust to not only a new playbook for him, but a new one for the entire offense, and he does not have many weapons surrounding him at the skill positions.
A problem here is that the media coverage adds an element that forces an additional pressure into play. Like Mike Pettine having to address what he would almost certainly love to list as a non-issue – “We don’t want to get too wrapped up in the big picture stuff. We feel good about where Johnny is at the #2 and we feel good about where Josh is with the #1, and also understand that a large part of it is a supporting cast thing. Our thoughts on the quarterback picture are the same this morning (Friday, the day after the game) as they were going into last night.”
Perhaps Pettine caught a break on Sunday morning, when Manziel dinged his elbow at practice, which will keep him out for a few days. That will take some of the media pressure off, and give McCown the full-time reps with the starting unit that he so badly needs. The question is whether he is good enough to make much out of this mix anyway.
Item – The Carolina offense did not match the scoreboard, or box score, vs. Miami...
Last Thursday there was a lead take on how much the Kelvin Benjamin injury could mean to the Panthers not just in terms of the quality of player he is, but also because of the lack of anyone near his size in the rotation of possible replacements. As such, only seeing the final score of that 31-30 win over Miami, or a box score that showed 24 first downs and 365 yards, would not create the proper impression at all in terms of a game read.
Cam Newton and the Carolina first team offense did not score. Their first three drives only last seven plays, a pair of three-and-outs, and an INT on the first play of the third. For the game it was a 4-10 for only 42 yards from Newton, and only one of the completions was to a WR, Ted Ginn. In the pre-season opener at Buffalo the first team offense was also shut out in the opening quarter, and of the five Newton completions, three went to Benjamin. Do not be surprised if there is a sense of urgency when the Panthers host New England on Friday; the question becomes whether they have the tools to make a fit (they hope to get rookie Devin Funchess back on the field this week, to at least have some chance to develop chemistry).
Item – Do not get overly impressed with the Eagle offense yet (but do respect those special teams again)
When a team scores 40 points and rolls up 476 yards in a pre-season game, fireworks can go off. When it was a high-profile offense like the one that Chip Kelly has installed at Philadelphia, it is also easy for some confirmation bias to come into play. You need to be careful with that – as tough as the Eagle tempo is to defend during the regular season, it is even more difficult in August, when opposing defenses are not set, and in particular when those defenses have not game planned for it. And that was the case for Baltimore.
Make sure that you file the following from John Harbaugh – “We didn’t prepare for it (the Eagle tempo) by design. It’s not something we’re going to prepare for. I guess in the pre-season, it’s pretty effective in that regard.” There was also an additional issue for the Ravens, the fact that their phones were not working, making it more difficult to get calls in – “We were out of position a bunch of times. Guys didn’t know what the call was because the phones are crackling up on us the whole time. So that really made it challenging for us.”
Here is what you should continue to respect – while time will tell if the high-profile roster decisions by Kelly are going to work out, his building from the bottom up has been impressive in terms of how strong the Philadelphia special teams have been. They finished #3 on the Football Outsiders weighted ratings last year, and have already recorded a pair of punt returns for TDs already. Here is the key – Darren Sproles led the NFL in punt return average last year (13.0, two going for scores), but it was Kenjon Barner who has taken it to the house twice. It shows that there is some design and team technique involved, and not just the talents of Sproles (with Nelson Algholor also added, there are likely three Eagles that would be the #1 punt return guy for most other teams).
Item – From bad to worse for the Giants at safety
The slew of injuries that Steve Spagnuolo is having to deal with as he brought his defensive schemes back to New York was a feature topic here last Tuesday and it is worth re-visiting now. The biggest problems were at safety, and that situation got exacerbated on Saturday night, when Justin Currie suffered a broken ankle in the first quarter, and Bennett Jackson was lost for the season with a torn ACL. Also out for the short-term was MLB Jon Beason, and while his sprained knee might heel in time for him to make the opener vs. the Cowboys, it renders the process of development even more arduous. From Tom Coughlin – “It’s just hard to even comment on”.
The Giants have to open against a pair of the NFL’s best offense, first at Dallas, and then at home vs. Atlanta. It is one thing to have players good enough to man the various positions on defense, but for a new system to be put in place, without a chance for that huddle to develop any kind of chemistry, it becomes extremely problematic.
In the Sights…
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been playing with a lot of energy in Chip Hale’s first season, with their current surge taking them over .500, and putting a winning campaign in view. But it got real interesting this weekend when the Dodgers and Giants both tripped up, as the D’Backs return home now only five games out of first place in the NL West. With 13 games remaining against Los Angeles and San Francisco they are legitimately in the hunt, and it creates a good setting for a #908 Arizona ticket at tonight’s price point, against a vulnerable Lance Lynn.
After back-to-back campaigns in which he topped 200 innings, Lynn’s stuff is awfully flat right now, a sign of being a bit worn down. His 1-3/4.42 across four August starts is far enough away from his norms, but note that it easily could have been much worse – he has been tagged for 23 hits, while issuing a dozen walks, over 18 1/3 IP, a 1.91 WHIP. His struggles can also be seen in dealing to a 20.2 PPI in those games, and he takes the mound tonight having been stretched out to 117 pitches vs. San Francisco in his last outing.
Meanwhile baseball has not been kind to Robbie Ray, who has not recorded a win since July 7 as part of his 3-9 personal line. But Ray has been steady, a 3.38 ERA and 3.30 FIP aligning to show how effective he has been – the support just has not been there. The D’Backs have only scored 42 runs across his 15 starts, including just five over his last four, a time in which they have actually been playing solid baseball otherwise. No one on the St. Louis roster has faced him before, bringing a first look advantage that helps him to finally get another “W”, with the bullpen behind him also well-set.
(UPDATING: With the insertion of Jhoulys Chacin for Ray, I would still be in the game +120 or better, I will still in the game, but will draw down about a third of a unit. There is still the chance to play a hot team into a starter off of his game, and Chacin brings some form, working at least seven full innings in each of his last four AAA starts, including into the 9th in his last outing.)
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