Point Blank – August 3
Is it Getting Late Early, for Zimmerman/Werth?...Understanding the new Steel Curtain...King Felix, in correction mode…
The Washington Nationals played their way back into a tie for first place in the NL East this weekend, managing just five runs at Citi Field in getting swept by the Mets. They drew three walks in the series, while striking out 35 times, a combination of bad offense and excellent pitching, but while the offense has underachieved for much of this season because of injuries, there are no excuses on that front anymore. The weekend brought the lineup that Matt Williams had been hoping to post all season; it just did not work.
There were at least some positives from Anthony Rendon, who had five hits, including a double and a HR. But the season-long issues of Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth continued, those two now combining for 9-44 since returning from their DL stints, with only one HR, a lone rbi, and 14 Ks. It is that duo that goes under the microscope as the pennant race heats up.
It is not unusual for any hitter to struggle early in a season; the MLB campaigns are filled with ebbs and flows, and finding the nuances that can projects those performance arcs is a big key to being a step ahead of the marketplace. This setting is rather unique – while injuries have reduced the plate appearances for each of those two Washington key cogs, the bottom line numbers are truly alarming for the first Monday in August.
Ryan Zimmerman
AVG OBP SLG OPS
Career .282 .348 .470 .818
2014 .280 .342 .449 .790
2015 .209 .266 .355 .621
Jayson Werth
AVG OBP SLG OPS
Career .274 .368 .464 .831
2014 .292 .394 .455 .849
2015 .205 .284 .279 .562
Those 2015 counts are dismal, and yes, Werth's SLG is below his OBP, that is not a misprint. For some perspective, Zimmerman has had 259 plate appearances, and Werth 141. If we drop the MLB tables to all players that have had 140 PAs or more, 327 make the list. Werth rates #308 in OPS, and Zimmerman #273. It is not easy to win games with that kind of production coming from the #4 and #5 spots in the batting order, and over the weekend the Nationals did not win any.
Now the issue for the handicapper – if those numbers were in evidence from Zimmerman/Werth in May, it might not come across as a big deal. There would be plenty of time for a turnaround, and part of what leads to those turns are hitters not feeling pressured by the approaching shadows of the season’s end. When there are only 59 games left, and when each of those games matter in a pennant race, it may be an entirely different story; time is not on their side anymore. Are these two talented veteran hitters that are eventually going to get back to their past norms, or could this be a matter of each of them pressing because there is a need to produce within a limited time frame?
There is an added pressure in play in that this weekend not only tightened up the NL East, but it also created space in the Wild Card race between the Pirates, Giants, Cubs and the Nationals, who are 2.5 games behind in that hunt. Washington has the talent to not only qualify for October, but to win once there; the question is whether the talent is going to step up to make it happen. The focus in the days ahead goes to the Zimmerman/Werth combo. If they show signs of breaking out, and if indeed they find their swings at the same time, there could be some buy-in value. Positive signs were not visible this weekend.
Camp Questions – Pittsburgh Steelers, and the new “D”
As the NFL day-to-day work picks up in earnest, a lot of the particular questions I am sorting through will get posted here. Since the Steelers and Vikings kick off in Canton on Sunday evening, they will be the starting points, with Minnesota to come tomorrow.
Here is one of my keys to understanding Pittsburgh as the season approaches. It has been more than a decade since the Steelers went into a season without D. LeBeau as the DC, and that can mean a major transition. But it does first beg the question – had the modern passing game of the NFL passed LeBeau’s schemes by, or was it a case of a defense also getting long in the tooth? The transition is not just one of the playbook, but a roster overhaul as well – having been among the league’s oldest lineups on that side of the ball the past two seasons, it looks like James Harrison will be the only contributor over the age of 30, and Harrison is not expected to start.
How much change will there be? Keith Butler, who had been the LB coach for the past 12 seasons, is the new DC, and as such knew LeBeau’s playbook awfully well. Butler and Mike Tomlin have been coaching together a long time, going back to college stints at Memphis and Arkansas State back in the 90’s, and it has been made known that Tomlin is spending much more time working with the defense in camp so far.
There appear to be some genuine changes – the DL will play more aggressively, a “one gap” approach focused on getting into the backfield to disrupt plays, instead of the read-and-react schemes of LeBeau, and the coverage in the secondary will be primarily zone. While the depth chart has had an overhaul, trading experience for youth, there is some upside – five of the projected starts in the front seven were first-round draft choices. One of them is OLB Jarvis Jones, and this take from him sheds some light on the process - “We’re definitely younger and a lot of guys are still learning the defense, but we’re faster, we’re more agile, and I think we’re more athletic than we’ve been. Coach Butler knows that and he’s going to use that to the best of our ability. He’s going to put us in great situations to make plays, and we got guys who can make plays all across the board. It’s exciting to see.”
There may be a lot to see here, a young group that can indeed make plays, but also one that may be vulnerable because of inexperience both overall, and in this system.
In the Sights…
Time to get a little chalky today, but the pitching mismatch between Felix Hernandez and Eddie Butler goes far beyond the way the markets have priced this one, especially with tonight’s timing added in, so #971 Seattle becomes a fit.
Hernandez is off of a rare bad outing, getting roughed up by the Diamondbacks last week, but at this stage of his career he has become a master at bouncing back off of subpar games – over the last two seasons he has dealt to a 6-0/0.91 in seven starts following a game in which he allowed four runs or more. Now he faces a lineup that has precious little experience against him, and also one playing without a whole lot of life.
Having Butler on the mound will not inspire the Rockies. Butler looks like a non-prospect, a guy who dealt to a 7.75 over his seven tries at AAA, and in going 4-8/5.20 through his first 16 MLB starts has more walks than strikeouts. Someone that must pitch to contact will be at their worst from this particular mound, especially with the defense behind Butler, and make sure you grasp that Colorado rating dead last in PADE means that Coors Field is taken out of play – even with the park properly factored in, this is the worst defense in the Major’s, one that will only slide even further with Jose Reyes at shortstop.
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