Point Blank – July 29
Chris Tillman arises from the ashes (Sports Betting #101: When Full Season Numbers go Stale)…An “In the Sights” double-bill (Jeremy Guthrie’s season should get “Progressively” worse today)…
Off of back-to-back seasons of 16-7/3.71 and 13-6/3.34, Chris Tillman’s 2015 rates as one of the biggest downfalls across the MLB diamonds, a 7-7/4.71 that would seem to carry some weight, now that there are over 100 innings in the sample. But if you used his season-to-date numbers as the major foundation for his current power rating, you would be off track; Tillman is on his game, and may be throwing even better than he did in putting together back-to-back strong campaigns. It provides another case study in how baseball’s ebbs and flows can create opportunities, for those that are closely watching the various performance arcs take shape.
For Tillman the early struggles were mostly about command, and sometimes it takes a bottoming out before a realization sets in that a change must to take place. That low point was an outing at Toronto in late June in which Tillman lasted only 1 1/3 innings, getting tagged for six runs. He left the mound that day with a 5-7/6.22 bottom line, and was on the verge of falling from the rotation for a start or two. Yet while his overall numbers are still uninspiring, take a look at his stuff since that dismal showing at the Rogers Centre:
Chris Tillman, L5 starts
IP 32 2/3
Runs 5
Hits 25
BB 6
K 28
It has been a 1.38 allowance through that cycle, and most important has been his command of the strike zone. Prior to that time it had been 4.5 BB/9, far above the 2.9 he averaged over those successful 2013-14 seasons; over the last five it has been a 1.7. Tillman has not just thrown strikes, but he has thrown them low in the zone, with each of those five games bringing a GB% below his career average
Was there some kind of particular issue that led to the slow start? In this case yes. While so many times pitching can appear to be a physical issue of someone having the stuff to dominate hitters, it is a delicate process – maintaining the mechanics to throw good pitches is not easy. As it turns out, Tillman was pitching through a back injury through the early part of the season, but not only did that early exit at Toronto make an impact on his psyche, it also created an unusual opportunity to get healthy as well – with a rainout also pushing his next start back a day, he went through a period of 11 days in which he only threw 38 pitches. Instead of being at rock bottom, which is what the numbers would show, he was physically and mentally ready to get back to who has been, and is now making up for lost time.
Tillman is not easy to use today, with the markets continuing to pile on against the struggling Braves – this is the 19th straight game they have been underdogs, and the sixth straight of +150 or more. But be ready to take advantage of him in the weeks ahead, while the markets linger to catch on to his corrections. Besides, having to pass on him today is made easier because this is a board of opportunity, so let’s look for ways to cash in both this afternoon and tonight.
In the Sights (Afternoon)…
I can sense a one-sided game in Cleveland this afternoon, and with #914 Indians Run Line paying off at a nice rate of return, there is a good fit. This is a bad setting for Jeremy Guthrie.
Guthrie has been written about here a few times this season, a guy that just does not bring much pop at all these days, with a career low in K/9 and a 35.4 GB% that is the second worst of his career. If you are not getting Ks or GBs it is not easy to survive, but he can gut out innings because the Royals play such good defense behind him, especially at Kaufman Stadium. On the road he has worked to an ugly 7.19 this season, however, with 70 hits allowed vs. only 27 Ks, and from this mound at Progressive Field it has been a career 6.85 nightmare, the problem of the Cleveland offense running some guys out there that read him awfully well.
Pitcher vs. Batter can be an awkward sub-discipline to sort through, with the obvious issue of small sample size, and the notion that any dominance that goes too far in a particular direction may be more likely to correct than continue. But the sample sizes are reasonable for this one, and they tell a tale. While Francisco Lindor, batting #2 for the Tribe this afternoon, has never faced Guthrie, look at the slash lines for the other guys at the top of the order:
Kipnis .440/.464/.800
Brantley .312/.333/.531
Santana .440/.533/.849
Moss .438/.438/1.062
All four of those players will swing from the left side, and Guthrie has been raked to a .332/.392/.533 by left-handers this season. And with the Royals sitting pretty in the standings, and having to travel afterwards, Ned Yost is making this a day off for Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez, with Ben Zobrist also not arriving in time to contribute. That weakens the defense behind Guthrie, and also makes it easier for Corey Kluber to dominate, as he makes up for lost time in a season in which the sport has not been kind.
In the Sights (Night)…
Last week there was a take on just how well Tyson Ross was developing, despite his bottom line numbers not setting off any fireworks – a 6-8/3.45 can actually induce yawns. But his stuff has been special, the combination of a 9.7 K/9 and a 63.3 GB% showing that opposing hitters are not making much good contact at all. In those categories it is Felix Hernandez country. And while putting that info into play behind Ross the last time out failed, his stuff was even better, a single game of 12.7 K/9 and 81.3% GBs, grading out to a 0.25 FIP. FIP brings him in at 2.07, 2.17, 2.17 and then that 0.25 over his last four starts.
This time the path will be #908 NY Mets Team Total Under, a chance to play Ross into an offense that does not match up well against him, nor anyone else these days. With James Shields burning seven innings last night the Padre bullpen is also well set, and there is the potentialbonus of the San Diego offense floundering so badly (13 runs over the last seven games overall; seven of nine July road games provide two runs or less) that New York may not have to bat in the bottom of the ninth.
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