Point Blank – July 1
MLB: Learning to Walk on In-Running (why not a little Keith Richards to start the day)…Will Mike Montgomery go from unsung to over-rated?...The haranguing of Harang chorus repeats…
An excellent question came in from Good Vibrations in the post-column thread yesterday, dealing with In-Running on the MLB diamonds. First, I must apologize for being rather quiet on that topic so far this season, after there was a major emphasis during the NBA playoffs. There is a reason for that, however, and it has to do with something that does get written about here often – baseball’s particular, and peculiar, geometry. It limits not only the methods that can be available, but also how often they can be put into play. So it is a matter of learning to patiently deal with those obstacles and having the proper expectations, and it brings the excuse for a little Keith Richards this morning, because it is on point -
Somewhat autobiographical there (yes, Keith’s voice live is not the easiest to translate, but you can match the lyrics here). OK, here is the gist. Baseball’s unique flow, the broken bat bloop double and the screaming line drive snared in the gap for an out, make for delicate processes of evaluation. Over time, many of those results that lack the proper definition will begin to even out, but the shorter the sample the more difficult the read becomes. As such, it is extremely rare for me to even look at In-Running lines for games that I am not watching. By merely tracking play-by-play, walks and strikeouts are reliable, but so many of the contact outcomes are not. It brings a Golden Rule - I am not betting if I am not watching.
That may not sound encouraging, since it will greatly limit the menu, but consider that a good thing. And do keep in mind that because baseball’s pacing is what it is, it is not that difficult to be watching three or four games at once without missing anything, if you have the television layout, something that the other sports do not allow.
So what do you look for? The eye test goes early to a pitcher’s command. Is he hitting his target and getting ahead of the hitters, or missing and failing behind? Is a ground ball guy keeping the ball down? Are batters swinging and missing, or making contact on most of their attempts? This will not automatically correlate to outcomes in a short cycle – a starting pitcher can labor over 20-25 pitches and get out of the first inning unscathed, or have good stuff and get nicked up for a run or two. That is where you begin to find the edges – an outcome that is inside-out with the performance. Because the overwhelming majority of In-Running lines come from “The Chart”, the adjustments are going to be made based on scoreboard outcomes, so you begin looking for those scores that are not properly measuring the flow of the pitcher(s).
Last night offered a classic example, though trying to take advantage would have led to a diminished bankroll. In projecting the Red Sox/Blue Jays Over “In the Sights…” here yesterday, the anticipation was of a struggle for Marco Estrada, off of 247 pitches over his last two outings. That struggle was there – Estrada was stretched out to 38 pitches in the first inning, but escaped down only 2-0 when the bases were left loaded. At that point you would be aware that he was not only far off of his game, but that the pitch count would almost assuredly lead to a long evening for a mediocre Toronto relief corps. So thoughts of Boston and Over would come under consideration. Yet the rest of the game played out 3-2 for the Blue jays, and it would have been difficult to capitalize.
Estrada never did find his way, leaving after getting one out in the third inning, and having thrown 73 pitches. But that erratic Toronto bullpen did not allow a run the rest of the way. Some nights that will just happen, but following pitch counts closely will bring you some opportunities.
The early eye test with the starting pitchers sets you up with the map for the rest of the game flow, and naturally that means having bullpen availability tables handy. Be ready to shift the offense vs. Lefty/Right charts based on those flows, which is something that the guys using “The Chart” will not necessarily be doing. You will see someone warming up in the pen and knowing he is the next pitcher in line, while the In-Running will remain much more mechanical.
If you want a better feel for how the historical math of baseball is reading the game, try the scoreboards at Fangraphs, which have models updated batter by batter that can be useful for that purpose. Many elements of “The Chart” come from a similar foundation, and over time, it will help you to get a better feel in terms of anticipating the odds.
There will be more discussion on this front over the course of the season, but in truth it is also early days for me as well, since the MLB option only came into existence on a scale grand enough to participate last year. The key is coming in with the right mindset, and we can let Keith take it home –
After all is said and done
I did alright, I had my fun
I will walk before they make me run
About Last Night…
I really wanted to like Mike Montgomery, the focus of yesterday’s column. He showed a lot of fortitude in working his way through some difficult times in the Minors, and had a chance to be one of those gutty competitors that would bring little sex appeal in the marketplace, but grind away and cash tickets. Not anymore. After I wrote that “he could be around The Show for a long time” and never top the shutout he threw vs. Kansas City in his last outing, the only hit Montgomery allowed last night was a double to Yangervis Solarte in the seventh inning.
And so much for all that – the notions of Montgomery being any kind of cash cow are gone. He will now get a high degree of market respect, and I may end up looking to knock him down in the future if the prices inflate too much, especially since his command was not special at all vs. the Padres – only 54.9 percent of his pitches were in the strike zone. That’s Baseball.
In the Sights…
You will probably be expecting this one, but with anti-Aaron Harang sentiments being repeatedly in play over the last couple of weeks, a warm night in Philadelphia with a slight hitter’s wind calls for pushing the chips to the middle of the table again, with #902 Over 8.
You can read about the genesis of the anti-Harang bandwagon here and since that time it has been an 0-4/7.13 slide for the veteran right-hander, with seven HRs allowed over 24 IP in that span. There is not much he can do to turn that around – his K/9 is a career-low for seasons in which he threw at least 100 innings, and his GB% is the lowest since 2009. If you work high in the strike zone with mediocre stuff, you need a bigger ballpark than this one to survive. Harang did not allow many dingers in his cool spring outings; tonight it will be in the 80’s at first pitch.
So why not a Brewers ticket instead of the Over? Because Kyle Lohse is showing an arc similar to Harang’s. Lohse never did miss many bats, but he got just enough ground balls and worked the strike zone well enough to have some decent seasons. Now he is nearing his 37th birthday, and nearly 2500 MLB innings have taken a toll. A 4-9/6.28 paints an ugly portrait, and FIP only reduces it to 5.09. An emerging issue is his lowest ground-ball rate since 2007, and warm summer evenings in hitter’s ballparks will not play well for him.
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