Point Blank – June 29
No (Golden) Nuggets of Wisdom…Archer’s arrows have been aimed a little too high of late…Arizona gets a second look at Mike Bolsinger…
Sunday brought something rather outside of the usual flow – my neighborhood was unfortunately knocked off-line for nearly 14 hours (Cable-Internet-digital phone) before access could be restored, relegating the tracking of the MLB diamonds to the small screen of an iPhone. That was not a pleasant experience, though the day was not a total loss, with the pleasure of being able to catch up with veteran oddsmaker and all-around good guy Keith Glantz occupying the late afternoon cycle. We had the opportunity to discuss many industry developments across various fronts, but one thing that was not going to come up in conversation is also the keynote as this week begins – the opening lines from the Golden Nugget for the key matchups of the upcoming NCAA football season.
And I will not discuss them with anyone else, either. Thankfully there were no questions directed into the PB weekend discussion thread, which saved me from having to be rude in not answering them. If you want to see those odds, and discuss them with others, you can go here. Just don’t ask me about them.
Over the next two months, those that have seen the Golden Nugget lines, and also know me, will be savvy enough to not bring them up in conversation. Most have been warned in the past. Bryan Leonard and I will be having dinner this week, Bryan graciously volunteering for the check. He is annually among the first in line when the Nugget posts those numbers, and diligently prepares to take advantage of opportunities, but he knows that if he mentions those lines when we sit down, I will order an appetizer. And if he mentions them over the main course, I will order dessert. He can talk about the lines and the bets he made, but it comes at a direct cost, and he is not going to water down his edges by having me reduce his bankroll at the table.
Why go out of my way to avoid those lines? It has to do with being influenced in thought processes not only as my own NCAA homework gets done over the next few weeks (because of my involvement through the NBA playoffs, and the daily MLB diamonds, the starting point for serious college football study is usually around July 1), but also when others open the first slate of games sometime around the middle of August. I want the process of poring through the Lindy’s annuals to be as fresh and as clean as possible, without already having some market expectations casting shadows. Perhaps even more important is not having those shadows also hovering over the opening week board.
Consider this as a concrete example. I believe Massive State U. should be -21 over Overmatched Tech. The markets open the game -15, which means that I have the value to get in play. But suppose Bryan or one of the other early movers laid -12 on that game at the Nugget. If I think -21 is the right price, then -15 is a fit. But if I knew that -12 had been available earlier, does that make me hesitant? Many of you know that drill by now; it becomes a routine part of the daily process.
I love college football. I relish the chances to discuss it here as the season approaches. Those discussions will not include the Golden Nugget lines. You have been forewarned.
About Last Night…
One of the things I did not get a chance to do on Sunday was watch Chris Archer. The box score brings one of those difficult games to grade, an outing in which he struck out 10 of the 24 batters he faced, while only allowing one BB, and just five hits. That reads well. The problem, of course, is that three of those hits reached the seats, two-run homers by David Ortiz and Pablo Sandoval, and a solo shot from Alejandro De Aza. That matched the number of HRs Archer had allowed over his previous 10 starts, and while his 9-5/2.31, with a 2.47 FIP, keeps him in prime Cy Young contention, there is a possible emerging issue that needs to be followed carefully.
Archer has exploded from the 2015 gate with a combination of strikeouts and ground-balls, which is the ideal dynamic for a pitcher. In seven of his first nine starts his GB% was 50.0 or better, which when combined with fanning more than a better per inning is outstanding. But Sunday marked the sixth time over his last eight starts that he did not get half of the contact to be on the ground, and in five of the six he was below 40 percent. Watch this carefully going forward – his pricing will be near a premium soon, and markets that are a bit late to the party may also be late in recognizing a possible regression.
In the Sights…
There are a couple of notions that have been discussed here over the past week that can be a part of playing #904 Arizona at +140 or more tonight. It does mean having to open the drawer to reach for Allen Webster, who is sporting the kind of command struggles that will make consistency an on-going issue, but fortunately tonight’s line incorporates that enough to stay in play – it just means going a little smaller, in the range of two-thirds of a unit (which will return nearly a full unit of profit with a winning ticket).
The gradual fatigue for the Dodgers in their cycle of 34 games in 34 days is at hand (this is #32), magnified by this being the third different venue, and third time zone, over five days. It is not a huge edge, but this is a marketplace in which every penny matters. And also as noted last week, Mike Bolsinger’s “First Look/Second Look” splits are developing an interesting dynamic – it has been a 4-1/1.67 the first time around, vs. 0-1/6.59 in three return engagements. While there are always the concerns in short samples of baseball’s geometry, what is intriguing is that his BB/9 counts are nearly doubled in second looks – a 5.40, compared to 2.72 on the first pass. Note that the 5.40 is also not one bad game skewing the lot, with single-game counts of 5.40, 5.79 and 5.06 across that category. The Diamondbacks were not patient in losing to him at Dodger Stadium, but that should change tonight, and it is not just a case of facing him from the batters boxes, but also having watched him go 1-6/5.50 while wearing one of their uniforms last year.
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)