Point Blank – June 3
The Mets Begin the Gee/Wiz Kids Rotation…Alphabet issues again for the Reds (that ABC bullpen gave one away in Philly)…Guthrie gutted it out (or did he?)…
Dillon Gee returns to the Mets rotation tonight, and at another time it might lead to collective yawns – his career 40-36/3.91 could make his a poster boy for “average”. But this time his impact goes beyond merely the pitches he throws; it marks the first pass for a new six starter rotation for New York, and it will lead to some interesting handicapping opportunities ahead.
The Mets are loaded for the future, with Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob DeGrom all showing the kind of promise that could have them contending for ace status with another team. Gee is only 29, and Jon Niese does not turn 28 until late October. Barring injuries, that five-man rotation could be the best in the MLB when the 2016 season begins. Add in veteran Bartolo Colon, and the Mets will already contend in the N.L. East this season, with injuries to the Washington starting rotation keeping the Nationals from establishing distance.
But is it all good? How will each of these pitchers react to a minimum of five days between starts, often six, and occasionally seven or more? Let’s start with where each of them resides, after their final outing before the new set-up begins:
ERA FIP
Harvey 3.11 2.96
Niese 4.42 4.68
Colon 4.72 3.83
DeGrom 2.41 2.83
Syndergaard 3.77 2.41
Gee 3.86 3.86
Team 3.37 3.32
I will be tracking each with an added statistical column from this point on, but for easy data-base purposes you can set a tracker to June 1, which will also include one start each for DeGrom and Syndergaard, before they begin to get a little more time off.
Yes, there is the potential downside of maintaining rhythm. But there is a countering upside that some of these power throwers, especially Harvey, will be able to cut it loose a bit more. Here is how New York manager Terry Collins explained the thought processes -
“We looked at every possible scenario there was. This is the one where we can let Matt Harvey throw 115 pitches because he’s going to have an extra day and sometimes he’s going to have two because we have a day off. It’s going to keep him fresh. We can get him deep into a game. We’re not going to have to worry about taking him out of a game after six innings or any of those guys for that matter. “If we look up in the middle of August, not that we’re going to go that far, and we need Matt Harvey out there more sooner than later, by God he’ll be out there on the five-day scenario.”
This will be something for the microscope for the weeks ahead, not just because of the uniqueness of the concept, but also the high levels of talent involved.
More on the Reds, and that ABC bullpen
There was some surprising reading I sorted through while trying to gauge how healthy Johnny Cueto was going to be for his start at Philadelphia last night, after he missed 13 days with what was labeled a minor elbow injury. There was published speculation was that Cueto’s next few starts would be auditioning for contenders, in order to begin possible trade talks, a surprise given how he has been a foundation for this franchise in recent years.
Cueto turned out to be fine, allowing only one earned run over six innings and not walking a batter, but once again that “Anybody But Chapman” bullpen, an ABC phrase used here several times already this season, was forced into play. It was ugly, with Jose Rafael Diaz and Tony Cingrani both allowing home runs, as the Phillies rallied from down 4-2 in the eight inning to win. Cincinnati relievers other than Chapman sport a 5.11 ERA for the season, and perhaps it is the realization of how limited that group is that may already have Reds management thinking more about a post-Cueto future, than turning the 2015 season around.
How does a bettor use this? It is an awkward path, because bullpen rotations are not easy to project before a game begins, and when Cincy does lead in the ninth it means one of the best performers in the sport takes the mound to close it out. But there is one thing that you can be tracking: the Reds are 9-16 as underdogs this season, with a -$510 across those games. You should use that not as a play-against tool; instead an acceptance that when there is a greater prospect that they will be trailing in a game, and that relievers other than Chapman must be used, the latter stages can be at a distinct disadvantage (contrast that 5.11 allowance with the 3.53 that is the current average for all MLB relievers this season).
About Last Night…
One of the settings that brought the most interest last night was Jeremy Guthrie’s start vs. Cleveland, his first time back on the hill since that Memorial Day disaster against the Yankees in the Bronx, when he was tagged for 11 runs over one official inning (he did work into the second). It was a horrific showing in which he had more home runs allowed (four), than outs created (three), of the 16 batters he faced. How was a veteran with fading stuff going to rebound? The answer may actually tell us all more about baseball, than Guthrie.
The basic box score tells a positive tale. He only allowed one run over 5 2/3 innings, checking the Indians on two hits and a lone walk. The headlines tell a positive tale, like “Jeremy Guthrie responds but Royals’ bats don’t in 2-1 loss to Indians” that was atop the Kansas City Star sports page. And a few paragraphs beneath that headline came “Jeremy Guthrie had no victory to show for a redemptive pitching performance.” That all sets a narrative in play that is easy to buy into. But was Guthrie actually any good?
His control was tentative, with 42 of 105 pitches missing the strike zone, leading to an 18.5 PPI, far above his norm. Of the 17 outs generated while he was on the mound, only three came on ground balls, and just one via a strikeout. His K/9 rate would be 1.6, and his GB% was 16.7, which would correlate almost directly to slow pitch softball. It was the kind of game that FIP reads so much better than ERA, and note the contrast – the traditional measure of his allowance was 1.59, FIP calls it 5.58. It was more a case of a successful spin of baseball’s roulette wheel, a lot of fly balls finding gloves, than a pitcher controlling the proceedings. If the markets try to read something favorable into Guthrie’s performance, it may open a door in the near future.
In the Sights…
The notion that Corey Kluber offered a Buy Signal a couple of weeks ago was a good one – over this last four starts it has been a 1.41 allowance, with a staggering ratio of 50 Ks vs. only 24 base runners allowed (22 hits and two walks). It is the execution on this page that has been lacking, only managing a 2-2 through the span. But the surging horse should be ridden again, and this time the call is a straight play on #925 Cleveland First Half.
I would not expect Kluber’s form to change, while Jason Vargas is showing vulnerability. Both his ERA and FIP are near the MLB bottom (5.16 and 5.07), inconsistent command being the issue. This will only be his second outing in nearly a full month, and for a guy that needs to finesse hitters to make mediocre stuff effective, it will not help that this is already the third look for the Indians against him this season, and the fifth since August 29 of last year. They know his arsenal. The play will be on Kluber’s form to exceed that of Vargas in the early stages, avoiding the KC bullpen edges, and while the markets have indeed shaded the First Five, it is not to the point that the path gets altered.
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