Point Blank – May 20
The West #1 – Who presumed, that it would be Livingston? (Playoff Passages #29)…Projecting a grinder, in Atlanta…The alphabet does not start well for Bryan Price…
Golden State 110 Houston 106
Game #1 brought a tremendous amount of entertainment, filled with unexpected plot twists and some outstanding individual performances. That is what the conference finals are supposed to bring, despite this matchup sitting near 9-1 in favor of the Warriors at tipoff. But in the process of putting on that show, did the teams bring much to build a Game #2 handicap upon? Unfortunately no, and without a strong foundation the architectural design of a wagering portfolio gets limited.
Most of my investments for the opener were on James Harden Under tickets, which did not work, despite part of the equation being visible – Golden State defended him well. But Harden played superbly, not only making difficult shots when still connected against defenders, but also hustling his way to 11 rebounds and four steals, while dishing nine assists. But it was a twisting path that produced his numbers, a microcosm of the game itself – at halftime Harden had only seven points, with seven assists vs. a lone turnover. He scored 21 the rest of the way, but with twice as many turnovers (four) as assists (two). But credit him for making things happen on a night in which he had precious few open looks.
As for the game charting, Houston exploded out of the gates, playing aggressively and confidently, and consistently getting the ball to the basket for easy finishes. The Rockets maxed out at 49-33 at 7:05 of the second quarter, a time at which they were on a game pace for 139.7 points. But it was a 25-6 Golden State run the rest of the half, a stretch through which Kevin McHale did not call a single time out to settle his team. And it was not one of the usual suspects being the catalyst for the Warriors, but instead Shaun Livingston. Livingston scored 10 of 16 Golden State points as the comeback began, and 14 in the quarter, with Steve Kerr going to a smaller lineup, playing Draymond Green at center, and creating matchup headaches for the Houston defense. Through that entire run there was only one made three-pointer, the Rockets being broken down for easier opportunities near the basket. But it was not just attacking with the ball, but keeping a chemistry on defense, that keyed the Warriors comeback.
Let Livingston’s take tell you something that absolutely matters going forward – “When we go small, it’s not necessarily small. We have guys out there that can guard multiple positions.” That has been a key to the Golden State success all season, one that is difficult to reduce to pure numbers – how much of a benefit is there to forcing the opposition into awkward lineups? It was of tantamount importance as the game turned in the second quarter last night, and in Livingston’s 28:43 of playing time the Warrior were +16.
But the Rockets did not go away, despite moments in which they seemed to be on the ropes. They got about 10 minutes less than they would have hoped from Dwight Howard, a knee injury limiting him to 26:10, and his minutes were not an easy read, a mixed bag of strong rebounding, but nearly as many turnovers (five) as field goal attempts (seven). His health naturally becomes a key building block for Thursday’s handicap. Part of Kerr being able to use that smaller lineup was Howard’s absence, which allowed for a barely-visible 16:16 from Andrew Bogut (no points, four rebounds).
The one real constant of this matchup is that the Rockets do not have an answer for Stephen Curry (not that anyone necessarily does). It was a +11 when he was on the floor, with 34 points on 13-22 shooting, and McHale lacks a defensive counter. Do not be surprised if there is more Corey Brewer for Houston going forward, and less Jason Terry, with there being nowhere to hide Terry in this matchup. And that also makes building the handicapping foundation precarious, in a series that may continue to bring twists to an anything but settled plot line.
In the Sights: NBA…
I have an idea here that I believe fits from a couple of different directions, so there is involvement from Game #1 of the Cleveland/Atlanta series, with a #504 Under ticket. I do not believe this Total is in the right place, either from an offensive efficiency standpoint, or of pace.
As noted here in a column wrapping up the Cleveland/Chicago series, the best Cavalier defensive lineup is when Tristan Thompson and Iman Shumpert are both starting. In the five games they opened together it was a 4-1 run, holding the Bulls to .995 PPP. But it is not a great offensive lineup, and there can be particular struggles if Kyrie Irving is reduced to being a decoy. He will be healthy enough to play, but perhaps not healthy enough to play well.
So where do easy points come from? I expect both teams to have to work deep into the shot clock to get their looks, with DeMarre Carroll a scrappy matchup to get out in LeBron’s grill, and not many areas that the Hawks can exploit, except possibly Al Horford taking Timofey Mozgov away from the basket and knocking down jumpers. Kyle Korver looks tired off of the major workload of this season, closing the Washington series by going 1-12 from three-point range over the last two games, and having more assists than turnovers, and he does not easily find his groove again vs. Shumpert.
Now for some basketball science. What happens when teams have to work deep into the clock before launching? It not only reduces possessions, but tends to get the floor balanced, so that if a shot is missed, it is more difficult for the other side to get out on the break. Quality NBA teams balance the floor late in the clock, with an awareness that a shot will have to be forced soon, and those needing to get back on defense preparing to do that. So I will call this one less active than the current market projections, which are trending up (a chance at 198.5 over the course of the day)
In the Sights: MLB…
Faithful daily readers may be expecting something to come out of Kansas City tonight, with a couple of emerging issues from the Cincinnati pitching staff that have been discussed here previously. The first was part of a key to an “In the Sights…” ticket with San Francisco over the Reds last week, with Jason Marquis on the hill. After that dismal showing his “Anywhere but Petco Park” is now at 5.56 over the last four seasons, and his 2015 ERA of 6.63, and FIP of 5.56, paint an accurate portrait of a guy that does not have a lot left in his tank. An issue tonight is that whether it has been from ineffectiveness or a lack of stamina, he is not eating innings, which becomes a second headache for Bryan Price. It is a matter of ABC’s.
The ABC count for the Reds is the “Anybody But Chapman” part of their bullpen, which has worked to a dismal 5.94 so far this season. That opens the door for a Royals offense that has opened to a .287/.338/.434 tune (#1, #3 and #2 in the Major’s across those categories), to get the call tonight, in the form of #930 Kansas City Team Total Over. You should be able to find a 4 -115 available in the marketplace, and that is a better path than having to trust Jeremy Guthrie as this level of favorite, with Guthrie’s K/9 down to 3.3, and his ground-ball rate the lowest since 2009, making it a tight-rope walk for him to try to escape with a lot of contact outs.
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