Point Blank – May 18
The Clippers got “benched” (Playoff Passages #28)…On Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, and “Deal me an Ace”…
Scratch the Clippers from the bracket and move the Rockets on to the Western Conference Finals, after a series that will discussed in great detail in the years to come, although not many are likely to reach the most proper post-mortem conclusion. So let’s get to that, because it will matter going forward.
Houston 113 LA Clippers 100
Game #7 was a bit of a dud, as far as quality basketball goes. Much of the pre-tipoff discussion here focused on how Doc Rivers might have needed some of his starters to nearly go the distance, partly because of their abilities, but perhaps even more importantly because the bench play had been so awful that the reserves needed to be kept seated. Yet Rivers tried to stay with a typical rotation, which meant 41:07 combined for Jamal Crawford and his son Austin. And it is what happened when those two were on the floor that opened the floodgates, much like what had transpired in the two previous Clipper losses when a close-out was on the table.
Los Angeles was out-scored by nearly a point-per-minute when Crawford played, a -22 over 26:24. It was more than a point-per-minute for Rivers, -17 in 14:43. And the 5:17 for Glen Davis was kept short because it was so brutally ugly, a -10. Those are rather frightening numbers, but when you take the last three games combined, it gets even more macabre -
Minutes +/- Per 48
Crawford 76:27 -62 -38.9
Rivers 49:30 -46 -44.6
Hawes 25:22 -19 -35.9
Davis 17:43 -29 -79.9
Let that sink in for a moment. The reserve cast was not just bad, they were epically hideous, creating large windows of opportunity for Houston to take command. The Rockets did that because their own reserves also stepped it up, with Corey Brewer having a superb Game #6, and Pablo Prigioni contributing plays far beyond what the box score can register from Sunday. So yes, the Clipper bench was awful, but also attribute the key Rocket reserves as playing well enough to exploit them, with the following counts over those last three wins -
Minutes +/- Per 48
Brewer 71:18 +41 27.6
Jones 67:40 +32 22.7
Prigioni 52:59 +21 19.0
Much of that will get lost in the shuffle of post-series analysis, and I have already seen examples this morning of the silliness of some actually leading with Chris Paul not being able to step up when it matters. If you come across someone in the Sports Mediaverse trying to sell that story line, you can file them away as not necessary to follow going forward. Saving time is almost always a plus. So how did Paul fare over those last three Clipper losses?
PPG 26.3
Shooting 51.9%
Assists/TO’s 31/8
Rebounds 14
Steals 5
You can win Series MVP awards with production levels at that rate. But Paul did not get much help, largely because of those woeful bench performances, and also in the falling off of Matt Barnes and J. J. Redick, who had their moments over the course of the season, but showed that they are still individually better suited for being a sixth man on a contender, rather than having to contribute starter’s minutes every game.
So what does it mean going forward? That Houston got the win, but did not necessarily accomplish what Kevin McHale needed most, the blending of Dwight Howard into the rotation to create a higher level of chemistry for the starting lineup, the kind of seamless teamwork that will be needed against Golden State. James Harden did not play in the fourth quarter of Game #6, and while 31 points, seven rebounds and eight assists can grab headlines from yesterday, he only shot 7-20, including 2-7 from three-point range, and had seven turnovers. The starters shot 25-58, and had as many turnovers (14) as assists. In winning Game #6, the starters were 24-61 from the field, and only had 12 assists.
It is that lack of basketball polish that will lead to an early demise against the Warriors. Golden State simply plays with too much precision, and when the Warriors have the ball it will be one of the most one-sided back-court matchups we are likely to ever see this late in any playoffs. Harden and Jason Terry trying to guard Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson does not have a solution anywhere that McHale can tap into (in a 4-0 SU and ATS sweep during the regular season, Curry/Thompson combined for 189 points and shot 50%). Expect to see a lot more of Brewer and off the bench, but this is where Patrick Beverley ‘s absence will really matter.
Can the Rockets win the series? You don’t need to look here for that answer, the markets are defining it rather well, a couple of good stores already as high as -900. But they do have the opportunity to make the occasional run because of their athleticism, and on a night on which the shots are falling can steal one. Getting more than one win would come as a surprise, however; instead of having the hapless Clipper reserves to exploit, a quality Warrior bench will not leave much of anything available.
In the Sights…
Faithful readers will already be expecting some kind of take involving Corey Kluber today, after a couple of recent topics discussed the nuances of his 2015 season, leading up to an “In the Sights…” backing vs. St. Louis in his last outing, a simply superb performance. The question now becomes one of how to best follow-up, as a long-term investment into his correction remains the goal, and in going forward there is also the chance to step back and see how amazing baseball can be.
W/L ERA FIP
2014 18-9 2.44 2.35
2015 1-5 4.27 2.56
Check those FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) counts, and you see precious little difference between the two seasons. It has been “Baseball Being Baseball” (BBB), the short-term geometry of the sport creating a little havoc. The Kluber issues have come from a BABIP of .353 and an LOB% of 63.5, both of which will gradually regress towards the league averages. But this is not just a case of the pendulums of the sport taking a different arc, it was also the “buy signal” that Kluber gave two starts back, a game in which he got off to a bad start at Kansas City, but shook that off with a particular determination that could be bought into going forward.
The notion of a “buy signal” matters, because Chris Sale may have just given one as well. Like Kluber, Sale’s numbers have taken a tumble from 2014, with his ERA up from 2.17 to 5.09. But while he indeed has had a few genuine struggles, with K/9 down and BB/9 up, he has also been a victim of some of the same geometry as Kluber, with a .340 BABIP and a 64.5 LOB%. Hence, an FIP of 3.55 that is a much better read. And like Kluber, it was the failure in a high profile game vs. a division opponent, a sloppy outing vs. Detroit two games back in which he walked five batters, that might have been the bottoming out. Sale responded with a vintage version of himself at Milwaukee, a dominating outing in which he had 11 Ks, while allowing only three hits and a lone BB, and he brings the stuff and the moxie to build off of that turning point.
Which takes us to tonight, and the notion of hoping to be dealt an “Ace” in playing #912 Under. What does the phrase mean? It is a way of using the science of the sport to still be able to win when the markets are aligned pretty well, which they are here. While the Total of “7” is not on the bargain shelf, when there are two aces involved in a game that bring the proper form, the window still cracks open. Colleagues and I came up with the “Deal me an Ace” phrase a couple of decades ago, and it brings the connotation that if one pitcher throws an ace game, holding the other side to two runs or less, then the only jeopardy is if the other offense has an explosion, needing to score five or more. Tonight that will be the path – I expect to get an ace game out of either Kluber or Sale, with a good prospect of both, and there is also the comfort of bullpens that are laid out almost as ideally as they could be, with Chicago’s Zach Putnam being the only reliever for either side that worked yesterday (and he will not carry a fatigue rating anyway, having had six days off prior to those 14 pitches at Oakland).
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