Point Blank – April 24
The Playoff Passages #6 (Games of 4/23) - The James Gang goes for a ride (cue a younger Joe Walsh); the Bucks stop here; and Draymond Green and the Warriors, were…Not all of the Rockets have blasted off yet...
An opening playoff round devoid of much end-game excitement saw the tables turned on Thursday night, when the home courts gave the underdogs the impetus to get deeply involved in the proceedings. It was an evening of High Drama, even if that first Bulls/Bucks OT was mostly Low Comedy, and when it was over there was an indication that one prime contender does not just have the talent to be a champion, but also the will…
Cleveland 103 Boston 95
This one was not good for the pocket, with a projection that the Celtics would play with energy coming true, but that energy not translating to effectiveness on offense. Hence an Over ticket that was burned, despite showing promise when the teams entered the 4th Quarter at 160. The talent deficiencies are not going to be made up with any X’s and O’s, especially as LeBron James starts shifting into a higher gear. And yes, it was only going to be a matter of time before there was a “James Gang”reference, inevitable once LeBron returned to Cleveland, a reminder of some great music that was being made a little while ago, right down the road from where the Cavaliers now hold court (I just decided to wait until the playoffs). So how about a little background music, to accompany your morning reading.
James noticeably focused on getting Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love involved in the series opener, but after those two got the first notch in their playoff belts, it became time to ramp up on Tuesday. He scored 30 points, along with nine rebounds, seven assists and two blocked shots over 41:48 in that one, and then last night it was 31 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, two blocked shots and four steals over 41:58. Prop players should note that minute counts, which likely become the norm for here on out. The Celtics do not have a counter, nor does anyone in the Eastern Conference, which brings visions of a potentially fascinating finals matchup of him against the defense of Kawhi Leonard or Draymond Green (who just finished #1 and #3 in the Defensive POY voting).
So what now for Game #4? The Celtics are not the type of team to play without heart, but there are no tricks left in the playbook. They can not play all that much better than they have, which is not good enough, especially with James translating to the others the important of getting time off after Sunday. The markets will increase the line about a basket off of Game #3, and they should.
Chicago 113 Milwaukee 106
There were so many fascinating elements to this one. The Bucks got a huge boost from their bench players in the 2nd Quarter to lead by as many as 18 points, before the starters returned and gave most of it back, a 14-2 Chicago run to close out the half narrowing the deficit to 53-49. And then the Bulls seemed to have command, up 94-84 at 2:50, and still 94-86 at 1:30, when the Milwaukee offense did what it should not have been able to do, knock down shots. The Bucks ran off 11 points in a row to take the lead, before Derrick Rose made 1-2 at the line to tie it, and then a Khris Middleton miss at the buzzer sent it to the extra period.
So the stage was all set for Milwaukee to take control. The Bulls missed their last six shots from the field in regulation, with a pair of turnovers, and seemed to be tired. And in the first OT, they were, but the Bucks could not deliver the KO punch. It was a wretched 6-6 draw over those five minutes, in which neither team could score over the final 2:31. The offensive execution was horrific, with no possession ending with a shot closer than 15 feet of the basket in that long scoreless stretch, and it ended with O. J. Mayo missing a jumper at the buzzer. That meant twice that Milwaukee had the last shot, and could not win the game. And it took a toll.
Chicago ran off the first dozen points of the second OT period, and when Michael Carter-Williams made a jumper at 1:01, it ended a stretch of 6:30 in which the Bucks had not scored. The offense that so improbably rallied at the end of regulation turned back into a pumpkin. That will matter going forward – it is difficult to envision the tired Milwaukee bodies re-energizing for a late Saturday afternoon tip-off, and the minds are not going to find a magical elixir to bring those bodies to life, not after failing to get one that was within their grasp.
The Bulls, of course, will be physically gassed as well. While it was essentially an anointment of sorts to see that Rose could go 48:13, that was his high count since a 48:30 back on May 24 of 2011. Of course one does have to wonder if a 53:01 from Jimmy Butler will cause him to do much more than flinch, with seemingly one of the best batteries in professional sports. But there is a motivation that will help Chicago to recharge – a Saturday close-out means at least a one-day advantage in rest over the Cavaliers, as that matchup looms.
Golden State 123 New Orleans 119
One of the reasons why the Warriors had such a monumental ATS run to open this season is that many failed to recognize how they were doing it. Even as the playoffs approached there were misconceptions to be found across the Sports Mediaverse, questioning if a “jump shooting team” could win the crown, while also speculation that they might be a little soft. And this was despite the fact that they were #1 on so many key defensive metrics virtually all season. On Thursday there was another element in play – when they had to get down and dirty, they more than earned the right to wear their team nickname.
Only three teams in NBA history have rallied from a deficit of 20 or more entering the 4th Quarter to win a playoff game. But to get an even better understanding of the character of this team, the Warriors have trailed by 20 points or more six times this season, yet won half of those games. For all other teams, the win rate when being down by 20 or more was 2.7 percent. The key was not a hot shooting hand, but rather the grit and determination to gut it out with defensive stops, and to get the available loose balls. They came up with 10 offensive rebounds over the final stanza, most of them in the hands of Green.
Green was the focus point on this page in breaking down Game #2, and his play in this series has been nothing short of monumental. No exaggeration. You have to dig all the way through the box scores to see all of the fine print that is a part of his floor game, and the daily boxes still have not found a way to measure individual defense on a per-game basis, his best attribute of all (gosh would it be fun to watch him guard LeBron in a series…). But take this to heart –
Minutes +/-
Warriors with Green: 124:29 +59
Warriors without: 24:31 -38
That is simply astonishing. But if you are watching the games closely, he really has been that damn good.
For much of Thursday, the Pelicans were also damn good. They had energy, they attacked, and they were not intimidated. But for the second straight game they went into the final stanza with a chance to win, and showed major signs of fatigue. They only managed 35 points in the 4th quarter of those two defeats, and for as much upside as Anthony Davis has (which is actually a bit frightening), he wore down in being stretched out to 45:04 and 46:15 over the last two games. That raises some questions about his ability to re-charge for Saturday, and much like Milwaukee, the entire New Orleans team faces a difficult transition to that one, knowing that the series is indeed over, while being haunted by the one that they let get away (especially ruing the foul they did not give on the final possession of regulation).
There is one flip side that may still matter, should they have the will – in three home games against Golden State this season, including one played without Davis, the Pelicans did not trail at the end of regulation in any of them (one outright win, and two OT defeats). They have shown the ability to match up and compete vs. the Warriors, Saturday’s question will be one of what is left in their emotional tank.
In the Sights…
The problems of the Mavericks have been detailed often in this column, and there was a particular notion of how hard teams were going for the #2 seed in the Western Conference, in order to be able to face them in the first round. But to truly understand their current state of affairs, let’s look at what points us to #739 Houston for Game #3 tonight.
In the series opener, James Harden shot just 5-17 from the field, including 1-4 triples. Dwight Howard played only 17:22 because of foul trouble. Yet the Rockets won by 10. In Game #2 it was another off night for Harden, who was 4-11, including 1-4 beyond the arc. Fellow starters Trevor Ariza and Terence Jones combined to go 2-15. The team that led the NBA in 3-pointers made, facing the defense that allowed more than any other, was only 6-20 from long range. Yet the Rockets won by a dozen. Get the picture?
Dallas is an old team lacking chemistry, and has to adjust to being without Chandler Parsons, in addition to those Rajon Rondo issues that have been such a distraction. While the Mavs were not effective with Rondo on the floor in this series, the perimeter defense becomes an even bigger issue without, especially if Devin Harris it not close to 100 percent. Meanwhile the fact that the Rockets have won as easily as they have despite not playing their best game yet is a subtle buy signal. While Harden will eventually have his breakout vs. this class of defense, the confidence gained by Josh Smith on Tuesday is meaningful, especially from a “team-play” standpoint (remember those nine assists), and there is also that matter of the Rockets being +34 in the 50:27 Howard has played. Often there can be a benefit to having been injured - fewer minutes of wear and tear during the regular season means more energy come playoff time. Howard is showing that energy, and it leads to a collective team energy that is too much for fading Dallas (4-11 SU and ATS the L15 vs. playoff teams, counting a meaningless win over Portland on the final night of the regular season) to counter.
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