Point Blank – April 21
The Playoff Passages #3 (games of 4/20)…The Carlos Carrasco Concerns…How Baseball protected Cody Allen’s ERA…Don’t start liking Nick Martinez just yet…Hey Buddy, You Wanna Watch a Fight?
For a pair of NBA playoff games decided by nine and 10 points, there was actually a high sense of drama throughout the day and night on Monday, beginning with the betting markets, and then through roller-coaster rides from a couple of key individual players. There is plenty to sort through, so top off your coffee and settle in…
Chicago 91 Milwaukee 82
There was a lot to see before this one even started, with a busy marketplace sending the Total surging in opposite directions, an early buy of Under 188 that lowered the trading to as low as 186, and then Over money that only seemed to end when the tipoff forced the action to stop – there were even 191’s in play. An entire column could be written about that movement, including speculation regarding whether the early Under surge was an attempt to create higher market caps for the eventual Over orders. That does not appear to be the case, but it raises its own question – how badly did the first group(s) misread the eventual market, to have ordered up big plays a full basket below what was to become available later?
The key from a betting standpoint is that it is great to see that kind of action, regardless of the exact provenance on the tickets. The NBA marketplace is truly becoming a global one, and while the four-game cards on Saturday and Sunday made some of the tracking difficult, with the volume being so spread out, when we see the kind of activity there was on Monday it is a terrific sign of the kind of market access that could become available.
The outcome for those Total’s tickets did not bring much drama – in Game #1 it was 30-29 Chicago at the end of the 1st Quarter; last night the two teams combined for just 27 in the opening stanza, and at halftime it was still only 39-38 Chicago. It was the contribution of Derrick Rose to the Bulls 39 that stood out – 0-7 from the field, including three more missed triples, and not a single attempt from the FT line. That burst that we have been sitting back and looking for was once again not there; he was not getting past the Milwaukee defenders, and often picked up his dribble far from the basket. It almost looked like time to put a final stamp on his 2014-15 campaign as USDA “Choice”, not “Prime”. But then came a moment…
Rose finally scored his first points at 10:12 of the 3rd Quarter, knocking down a triple, and a spark went off. The next time he got the ball he was able to get into the paint and draw a foul on Khris Middleton, at 9:53. Mark that down, because it took him into the sixth quarter of this series to draw his first shooting foul. Rose got to the basket again a few minutes later, converting off of a good feed from Jimmy Butler, and he stayed aggressive the rest of the way. The box score will not look at good as Saturday’s, with 15 points on 4-14 shooting, but Rose was actually much better, and when he is active look at how the offense flows – by forcing the Bucks to move and adjust on defense the Bulls had 26 assists on 31 made FGs, that ratio being a season high.
While the Rose burst may truly matter going forward (especially noting the 38:05 of court time), it was Jimmy Butler that created the game control in the latter stages last night. Butler had 21 points in the second half, and also had nine rebounds and two assists, without a single turnover, over 46:00. The Bucks did not have an answer for him, and as one of the predictable storylines for their inevitably short post-season stay, they do not have the answers on offense. They are shooting just 37.4 percent in this series, including 8-33 from beyond the arc, which makes their best chance to compete when they return home on Thursday mucking things up into even more of a grinder.
Golden State 97 New Orleans 87
The final score was most misleading for those that were not watching into the late-night; the Pelicans actually jumped out to a double-figure lead early, and were only down 85-84 with a little over 5:00 remaining. But for as wonderful of a talent as Anthony Davis is, and the frightening thoughts of how good he can be, it was asking a lot for him to play 45:04 vs. this class of competition, and in particular the defense of Draymond Green. It took a major toll, and a big part of the 26-16 Warrior domination of the 4th Quarter was Davis going 0-5 from the field.
You can not blame Monty Williams for giving it a go with that rotation – when the early lead created the prospects of getting a win it forced a max-out of Davis, and about as much as could be had from Tyreke Evans, who toiled 40:58 despite being less than 100 percent. That was forced because of the absence of Jrue Holiday, who they hope to get back for Game #3 on Thursday. The bench just does not bring enough answers, and notions of resting Davis get negated by the lack of contributions from Dante Cunningham and Ryan Anderson, who combined for just six points and two rebounds over 27:22, including a -9 in the 18:00 for Cunningham.
The Golden State headlines will start with the 26 from Klay Thompson (18 in the second half) and 22 from Steph Curry, but Green was the man. While 14 points, 12 rebounds, five assists and three steals show some of his floor game, it was the defense on Davis that mattered most, not just getting stops, but also making him work so hard merely to get where he wanted to be on the floor, which caused that late-game fatigue. A trusted stat source credits Green at holding the players he guarded to 5-24 from the field. The +/- charts get this one right, with the Warriors having a +24 advantage over Green’s 41:50. Try this from Steve Kerr afterwards - "I ask Draymond if he's tired and if he says no, I leave him in. If he says yes, I leave him in."
The fact that the Pelicans extended the fight deep into the game will be the kind of confidence boost that can matter on Thursday – in their two regular season home games vs. the Warriors they won outright, and lost in OT, the defeat coming on a night that Davis did not play, and even then they still led by eight with 5:00 remaining in regulation. They played with energy and abandon deep into the night on Monday, and there may be a temptation come Thursday (if Holiday is cleared to play, +5.5 and +190 become targets).
Now to the MLB Diamonds…
Item: The Carlos Carrasco Concerns
Last Tuesday there was a column dealing on the brilliant run of Carlos Carrasco, but his evening was cut short at only eight pitches, after being hit by a line drive. So how to respond? Largely by doing nothing but sitting back and watching. A big part of a surge by a pitcher is getting into a working rhythm. With Carrasco only having thrown those eight pitches over a span of 13 days he could be a bit out of sync. There will be an intriguing aspect to the Tuesday equation – the Indians have only supplied him with 15 runs over his last 10 starts, which is stretching that pendulum pretty far. But finding the formulas to deal with Run Support evening out remains elusive from this corner.
About Last Night…
Not only does Cleveland have some upside in a starting rotation that has Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, T. J. House and Danny Salazar as quality prospects behind Corey Kluber, but there are also hopes that Cody Allen can harness his great stuff to become a dominant closer. His psyche becomes an immediate issue off of a couple of rough outings already this season, and he walked away from last night’s 4-3 defeat at Chicago with an 0-2/18.00 line, having inherited a 3-0 lead in the bottom of the 9th in that one. But now time to understand a little Baseball, especially in terms of early-season statistics. As bad as Allen’s night was, the sport saved it from potentially being much worse.
There are going to be a lot of metrics talked about in this column you may not be accustomed to, including LOB% (Left On Base Percentage). Many of them get used because they simply tell a better tale than some of the traditional standards. Yes, it is rough on Allen’s ERA to get four runs recorded while only generating a single out, with seven of the eight batters that he faced reaching base. But look at how Baseball protected him –
The game ended when Melky Cabrera lined a single to center, scoring Tyler Flowers. Gordon Beckham would have almost assuredly scored from second, but the laws of the sport forced him to stay at third base, and instead of Allen dealing with having the bases loaded with one out, he was able to walk away, those three runners having no chance to score. Consider the blessing that was for him, and make note of these settings when they occur.
In the Sights…
This will be one of the warmer nights this season with the Chase Roof open in Phoenix, including a bit of a hitter’s breeze to right-center, and that makes the ability to play #980 Arizona Over at even money off of a 9 (you can even take +105 in some stores this morning) a favorable proposition. Why such a fair price? Because the markets see a 2-0/0.00 from Nick Martinez that might not mean a damn thing.
Martinez is not a great prospect, but got jumped from AA to the Texas rotation LY because of injuries to the Ranger staff. His 5-12/4.55 did not bring much distinction, with an inability to miss bats (only 4.9 K/9), pinpoint the strike zone (3.5 BB/9), or generate ground-balls (32.9 percent). Of the 112 pitchers that threw at least 140 innings in 2014, only Kevin Correia had a lower K/9 rate, and Martinez was #108 at getting ground balls.
So has he turned his game around this season? No. Consider this – his K/9 has actually dropped to a dangerously low 3.9, and his ground-ball rate is down to 28.6 percent. Even his control is not all that much better, at 3.2 BB/9. It has simply been a case of Baseball Roulette playing in his favor, with a .214 BABIP that will not last, and the fact that none of the 14 base-runners he has allowed have come around to score an earned run. There just is not much to like.
Meanwhile Diamondback starter Chase Anderson can be a steady back-of-the-rotation guy, but lacks upside. So in a game in which neither starter should dominate, and merely getting each team to four runs means that the Over ticket can not lose, there is fair value to get in play.
Vegas…
I have to take a moment to deal with the silliness going on in Las Vegas for the upcoming Pacquiao/Mayweather fight, and it may be of benefit to some of you. As much as I enjoy things that are good for the local economy, the room rates are utterly preposterous, many properties at New Year’s Eve levels. But there is a catch that is not being talked about, and can impact tens of thousands when the bell rings for the fight to begin –
Where the hell are you going to watch it?
What is not being made well known is that the MGM Grand has an exclusivity in play. Not only is the property hosting the fight, but it also controls all closed-circuit rights throughout Clark County. So when the Wynn/Encore, Venetian/Palazzo or Caesar’s properties ask you for those ridiculous room rates, ask them a question back “By the way, where will I be able to watch the fight?” Unless a last-minute deal gets made (don’t hold your breath), you will not be able to view it anywhere at those properties. Not in the Sports Book. Not in any of their restaurants or bars. And you will be blocked from ordering the PPV in your hotel room.
The absurdity of this is becoming mind-boggling. Today’s Las Vegas Review-Journal has a chart of current hotel prices for that weekend, including per night $1,279 at Caesar’s, $849 at the Venetian and Palazzo, and even $714 at the Westgate (seriously, the Westgate). Why would anyone be paying those prices to be in the city, but to not be able to watch the fight where they are staying? If you have already booked, and are coming, make sure that you are searching out the venues to watch; you do not want to be scrambling around at the last minute.
The complete Point Blank Archive