Point Blank – April 17
A Preface to the Playoff Passages…On the Silliness of Subsets (Clayton Kershaw just had a bad game, but it doesn’t mean what it once seemed to)…Get some Cutty Sark Prohibition, for a toast that will hopefully come…
The Fear and Loathing that the NBA brings to many bettors during the regular season is well deserved. It is a long slog in which some games a team will bring the fire to be the Harlem Globetrotters, while in others are seemingly content to be the Washington Generals. You just have to figure out which night is which, not only in terms of anticipating the performances, but also when grading afterwards. Throw in that the schedule tips off right in the heart of football season, and there is a reason why the per-game handle in that league stays so slow through the winter months. It only got worse this year, when resting starting players became epidemic, a topic of conversation several times recently on these pages.
But it all changes now.
On Saturday, the NBA is about to go from a kayak ride through the rapids of the River Styx, to a serene windless setting on a lake with clear water. You steer the boat in any direction that you choose, taking advantage of the most the most elemental setting in the Sports Betting arena. No, that is not hyperbole – this is as pure as handicapping gets. All of the statistics, metrics and factoring that has taken place for nearly six full months can now be reduced to basketball at is most basic form – you watch two teams play each other, and then compare your take on that game with the rest of the marketplace, on both sides of the counter. Beat them in that read, and there is a substantial mount of money to be made.
That will be the daily ride here at Point Blank, until a Champion has been determined, through what will be called “The Playoff Passages”. There will be a review of each game played, some short and sweet if there is not much to be learned, and some leading to essays if that is what the lessons amount to. It will be an attempt do decipher elements from the ebbs and flows of each game that best point to the direction that the next matchup will take, and it will re-introduce something that has been used here before – the “Game Inside the Game” (GIG).
Be prepared for more talk about the sport itself than of statistics; of matchups and coaching decisions instead of power ratings; of mistakes that were made, and which side is mostly likely to correct them. It can be an exhilarating time, and in truth I will watch more minutes over the next seven weeks or so than I did during the entire regular season. Most times the focus will be on fist breaking down Game #1 of a series, and letting the flow determine the maneuvering of the portfolio, but every once in a while there will be something on an opener. For the First Round, there is also a series play that is ready to go, although no hurry to jump since the price keeps getting better. I will get to that in a moment, but first a little Friday baseball, and some talk about subsets…
Don’t get caught in the Silliness of Subsets…
Statistical subsets can be a nightmare for a sports bettor that is only receiving the information, and not producing it themselves, or at least sorting through. They are awfully easy to come up with; all you have to do is start with a strong base set, and it is naturally going to be filled with small samples of things that sound brilliant. Something that is 40-22 ATS over 62 games will generally produce those “9-1 over the last 10!” subsets that bring such excitement (and, unfortunately, are often used as selling points for touts lacking scruples).
I was not really thinking much about one that is in play on Friday night, when someone contacted me yesterday about a pattern I had began charting a few years ago, the way that Clayton Kershaw bounced back off of a bad outing. Not only does he have the best stuff in the sport, but he is also one of the fiercest competitors. As such, the rare bad game tended to bring a fire when he got the chance to atone for it. Or at least it seemed that way. The problem is that Kershaw has simply become so damn good that a pattern that might ordinarily impress you, shouldn’t anymore, especially as the markets begin elevating his prices, something they actually came up short on in 2014.
The Dodger southpaw ace had a rocky time of it at Arizona on Saturday night, allowing six runs (five earned) on 10 hits over 6 1/3 IP, getting scored on in four different frames. Which puts him into the mode that stands out so strongly for tonight – backing him off of a bad game. Since the start of the 2010 season there have been 26 occasions in which he has allowed four runs or more, and the bounce-back from the first 25 has been -
W/L: 13-1
ERA: 1.97
Gaudy stuff, right? The sort of thing that if left by itself might have some of you salivating. Unfortunately, many in the Sports Mediaverse would leave it that way, tempting you into believing that something much better than the true reality was at hand. But now for a little grounding in reality. First, the Dodgers went 17-8 across those 25 games, only managing a 5-7 when he did not get the decision, though still sporting a solid +720 profit (based on $100 per game). But whereas I thought the concept meaningful back in its early days, here is a newer reality -
Last Two Seasons:
Kershaw ERA off 4+ 2.25
All other games 1.77
And so it goes. Did I really have anything when cashing several of those tickets backing Kershaw off of a bad game? Yes, I was betting on a pitcher that was really, really good. The subset itself? Perhaps not so much. And at this point, it may merely be reduced to being a few trivial moments along his unchartered career path.
In the Sights…
I don’t bet on Gregg Popovich losing very often, in part because it can be hazardous to the bankroll, and also because I simply do not like to. When not involved in a San Antonio game financially, I will be a Spurs fan, and it feels good. But I don’t buy the market perceptions on this series, and with #796 LA Clippers available at as high as +155 down the street from me right now, I will be playing. The only question is when, since the money continues to flow towards Pops and his team. Value began at +130, so if waiting costs me a nickel or so because of a market shift I may not end up with the best of it, but it is still a ticket I want in pocket.
Yes, the Spurs put together what looked like another great late-season run, which you will hear at length from the Sports Mediaverse in the days ahead. But I believe the Clippers are every bit their equal right now, closing on a 14-1 run as Blake Griffin worked his way back into the rotation. And there is a GIG matchup in this series that I believe tells the tale – the Clippers are going to win the key PG matchup.
There was a take here about the Spurs when they were struggling back in February, and Popvich laid it out pretty clearly about what Tony Parker means to the team – “If he’s not the Tony Parker of past years, we’re not going anywhere. His aggressiveness is a huge key for us, because of his ability to penetrate and get to the rim, and he hasn’t done that like he has in the past. It’s because of a lack of confidence in that leg and a lack of conditioning, a combination of those two things. There are not many nights when Timmy (Duncan) or Manu (Ginobili) or going to get 26 or 28, but the teams we are playing have a lot of those guys. Tony is our guy and we need that back.”
Parker indeed got some of his burst and efficiency back, but stamina is another matter entirely. He has only been to 40:00 twice all season, O.T. losses to the Cavaliers and Knicks, and he had gone 16 straight games without reaching 35:00 until San Antonio went all-out to win at New Orleans on Wednesday, a 35:02 that may be about as much as he has in his tank. Keep in mind that in last year’s playoff run to the title, he never topped 37:40.
And that is the issue. Parker will not outplay Chris Paul. He might even lose that matchup. But it is in what happens when Parker is not on the floor, and Paul still is, that I believe this series gets decided. As brilliant as Pops is, this is a difficult matchup for him, and Doc Rivers has been through enough rodeos to be able to battle along. It shapes up as possibly the best first-round series of my NBA betting life, one that is as good as the Finals were in some seasons, and to take this price range with a team that has the home court advantage is the kind of value that is difficult to pass up. A winning ticket will mean the bittersweet feeling of seeing Popovich, Duncan and Ginobli likely together for the last time, but as a tribute to them, and to the victrious Clippers I will pour a Cutty Sark Prohibition (not bad if you have not tried it, beware of the 100 proof), and drink the proper toast.
(Note: Not an overall fan of Cutty Sark in general, but it became a running joke with associates to drink that as a toast any time that we cashed a Clipper ticket. In the Chris Paul era that means keeping some around regularly, with Prohibition a nice addition to their offerings.)
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