Point Blank – April 10
MLB Marketology 2015 – Will we be betting on Sabathia in May? (time to brush up on your Aldous Huxley)...The Miami Heat were a China Shop (but you need to check those Derrick Rose #’s)…Wade Miley was better in 2014 than many of you may think…
The early salvos in any sports season can be major eye openers, for most of you by focusing in on the players and coaches in the arena, but for some of us those other “players” every bit as much – the ones getting financially involved at high levels. As such, the first series of MLB games provided some eye-openers in terms of line movement, but nothing prepared me for Blue Jays/Yankees on Thursday -
Open Close
Pinny NYY -125 TOR -129
CRIS NYY -130 TOR -140*
Westgate NYY -125 TOR -138
(* - CRIS a little more extreme because of wider splits)
OK, so there were the issues about CC Sabathia that were written about yesterday (link in the archive at the bottom of the page), and New York was going to be without Dellin Betances in the bullpen, while the presence of lefty starter Daniel Norris for Toronto also meant no Brett Gardner or Brian McCann. But that kind of move in an MLB game is unheard of, especially in that it kept moving to the first pitch – for almost all of the Sports Books surveyed their highest Blue Jay price was the last one. Which meant, of course, that there was no buyback, apparently not even from those that had grabbed the early dog price with the Blue Jays.
Welcome to 2015, and the “Brave New World” in the marketplace that there were signs of in the NFL last fall (remember “Where the Hell was the Buyback?” from early September?). It will make for interesting study. While there is more money being wagered then ever before, some long-time market makers have also left the arena over the past two years, which makes for some wide open trading. Some of the guys no longer in play tended to side with the house when games ran too far, and the newer crowd seemingly brings far less sentiment, not showing an established trust in the oddsmakers.
This can all be beneficial, over time, but it does mean a lot of sorting out ahead. A key part of that will begin the next time Sabathia takes the mound. He was much better vs. the Blue Jays than the runs allowed will indicate (check that single-game FIP of -0.10), but will that same money stay in play against him? Will the oddsmakers use that anticipation as part of their process? Could a guy that I pegged as a play-against early end up being someone that I may be playing on in a few weeks, because of market over-reactions?
Yes, get out there and study the pitchers and hitters carefully this weekend, but don’t neglect to study the markets as well – that is where the gravy will come from, to make the meat-and-potatoes of the handicapping of the sport taste better.
Item: After One Series of Play…
The pitchers were so far ahead of the hitters that it was rather alarming. There have been 13 shutouts already, and take a look at that slash line –
2014 Season .251/.314/.386
2015 1st Series .224/.290/.355
For the offenses to struggle is not a shock – cold weather, top shelf starters opening up, and all bullpens fresh make for a pitcher-friendly setting. But it should not lead to this extreme.
Exhibit A: Chicago 89 Miami 78
Exhibit B: Derrick Rose -2
After detailing the struggles of Rose in his first game back from injury in yesterday’s column, the Eye Test was ready for a close study on Thursday night. The results were rather stunning. Some of the vision was of Chicago arguably playing the best quarter of the season, a stunning 33-8 run through the third period over the Heat that literally was the Bulls running through a China shop (the run extended to 39-8), leaving shattered pieces of Miami playoff hopes in the wake. But much of that vision was also of Rose contributing precious little. The team had a good game. He didn’t.
In 20:22 of court time Rose was just 5-15 from the field, missing all three triples, with more turnovers (3) than assists (2). Chicago was out-scored by two points when he was on the court, but went +13 over the other 27:38. Rose did not play over the final 17:16. In two games back he has only made 8-23 from the field, with seven turnovers vs. four assists, and only one steal.
Tom Thibodeau has a prime setting for a confidence boost ahead – the Bulls host Philadelphia on Saturday night. That may be the setting he needs to have Rose on the floor in the fourth quarter, not just building up his stamina, but establishing what he wants the playoff rotation to be. For Thibs, those playoffs are coming far too early…
In the Sights…
No fireworks went off when #923 Boston picked up Wade Miley in the off-season. Off of his 8-12/4.34 showing for the Diamondbacks, why should there have been? But Miley has the potential to be an early sleeper in the marketplace, and tonight’s pick’em range against the Yankees allows for a buy-in.
After posting counts of 16-11/3.33 and 10-10/3.55 in his two previous seasons, it might have appeared that Miley fell off in 2014, but he didn’t – he actually showed some of the best stuff of his career, with a dramatic increase in K/9 from 6.53 in 2013 to 8.18, and SwS% from 7.9 to 9.7. But you had to be paying attention, because the frustrations of how his season played out told a tale. He did not get much from the Diamondbacks either in run support (3.5 per game, of the 112 pitchers that worked at least 140 IP, that ranked #91), or on defense (they were dead last in the NL in PADE), and the bullpen did a poor job of protecting leads that he left with.
Note that Miley’s ERA went from 3.55 in 2013 to 4.34 last year despite his FIP being the same – 3.98 both times, and his SIERA rating actually got better, from 3.96 down to 3.67. Much of that ERA rise was the Arizona defense, which played a part in his .317 BABIP. There were truly some settings that can test a guy’s mettle, like a memorable late-season stretch in which Miley worked to a 1.69 over four starts, only to get tagged with an 0-2, and a pair of no-decisions. But he never stopped competing.
The Red Sox may have stumbled into a bargain, and with the usual advantage of a left-hander changing leagues working for him (Chase Headley and Carlos Beltran are a combined 4-24 with five Ks vs. Miley, no other Yankees have more than three career at-bats against him), he should be a part of your early-season portfolio as well.
The complete Point Blank Archive