Bettor's best friend: Saturday's wagering tips
(Comp of MSI)
Lines to keep an eye on
Magic at Celtics – The
spread for Game 3 opened at -2 in favor of Boston. That number was
quickly hit by sharp bettors and moved to -3. Most sportsbooks are
offering a 3.5-point spread now while a couple books are holding 4 and
5dimes has 4.5. Lines tend to move toward those of 5dimes normally so
this could continue to climb. The opening total of 189.5 for the game
has jumped a point at some shops.
Indiana Fever at Chicago Sky –
The home team surfaced as 2-point pups but are now 1-point faves. The
opening total of 150 has been bet down to 145.
Utah Blaze at
Spokane Shock – The home team has moved to two-touchdown favorites after
opening at -12.
Weather to watch
(Forecasts are
extracted from Weather.com the night before the game.)
Cubs at
Rangers – A southward 19 mph wind will be blowing in from center field.
Rockies
at Royals – A 20 mph wind from the south will be blowing out to center
field.
Giants at Athletics – A west-northwest 18 mph wind will be
blowing out to right-center field.
Braves at Pirates – A 40-50
percent chance of rain is in the forecast with an 11 mph wind blowing in
from right-center field.
Orioles at Nationals – A 30-40 percent
chance of rain is called for with a 12 mph wind blowing in from right
field.
Who’s hot
The Celtics have won five
consecutive games, going 5-0 ATS in that timeframe.
Texas had won
four straight games going into Friday.
The Flyers have won six
of their last seven outings, holding opponents to 1.9 gpg during that
stretch.
Who’s not
Orlando has played to the UNDER
in four straight games.
The Brewers are 1-9 in their last 10
outings.
AL West representatives Seattle and Oakland were both
3-7 over a 10-game span going into Friday.
Key stat
12-28-1
– ATS record of the Celtics on their home floor this season. However,
Boston is 5-1 ATS at the Garden this postseason.
Injury that
shouldn’t be overlooked
Red Sox centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury
is expected to return to the lineup Saturday after being on the DL
since April 11. Ellsbury was suffering from a hairline fracture in his
ribs. The lefty was hitting .333 in 30 at-bats for Boston before being
sidelined. Ellsbury will likely resume the leadoff role in the batting
order which will put Marco Scutaro elsewhere.
Games of the day
Orlando
Magic at Boston Celtics (-3.5, 190.5)
Philadelphia Flyers at
Montreal Canadiens (-140, 5)
Notable quotable
"My
third foul in the third quarter, when I tried to beat him over the
screen, he fell down like I threw him. It was ridiculous. But the refs
called it, so it was a good play. It was a flop, 100 percent, and that's
how some guys like to play. But if the refs call it, it's effective."
--
Orlando’s Matt Barnes said when asked about Paul Pierce's tendency to
exaggerate contact. If Pierce was getting those calls in Florida, he’s
surely going to get them at the Garden.
Tips and notes
-
This week, every MLB team has played every day. With most teams playing
one or two two-game sets before the weekend interleague series there
has been a lot of travel. Travel and less time to study scouting reports
for opposing pitchers has equated to more unders as this week has drawn
on. With the pitching ahead of the hitting so far this year (no-hitter
and perfect game), scoring has been down across the board.
-
Texas manager Ron Washington dropped slugger Josh Hamilton to the No. 5
spot in the batting order Tuesday. Hambone wasn’t too thrilled about the
demotion saying, “It's not like they're going to pitch me any
different.” But since the switch, which placed Ian Kinsler in the
three-hole, the Rangers are 4-0 and have plated 29 runners. Kinsler has
at least one hit and RBI in each of those games while Hamilton has
registered six hits and two RBIs. With this recent change and Nelson
Cruz back in the lineup, Rangers’ bats are getting hot which could
equate to a lot of overs.
- Despite holding the best record in
baseball, Tampa Bay isn’t really hitting that well. The Rays rank 17th
in the majors in batting average (.257) and hits. The team’s success has
come from timely hitting and stellar starting pitching. Jeff Niemann
said that going deep into the game was “hammered into our heads since
spring training.” For a bettor, this means that you don’t have to lay a
higher number to bet first five innings because Tampa’s starters are
going to go as far as they can and the bullpen has been solid.