Point Blank – March 29
The Tourney Journey #11 – A finger or two of Laphroaig, glass lifted to James Naismith…Cue Van Morrison, sometimes in sports “There Ain’t Nothing You Can Do” (the references are not Old, they are Classic, there is a difference)…
Wasn’t that fun? Step away from remembering whether you won money or lost, and think about the quality of basketball that was put on display on Saturday – Wisconsin turning in an offensive showcase in the second half that goes into a special place in the annals of college basketball, before Notre Dame/Kentucky provided a beauty in which the Fighting Irish showed that the Wildcats can be beaten, before John Calipari’s teams willed that on this night they would not be. Except for some overly zealous officiating in Los Angeles, it was a day to appreciate what the sport can bring.
In a tourney that will always bring is share of sloppiness, young men under the bright lights being subject to that, there was a high level of play on display throughout. Arizona becomes the forgotten team, yet you can’t fault the way the Wildcats played. Perhaps a case could be made that no team could have beaten Wisconsin at yesterday’s level of offensive execution. So let’s get to it…
At Los Angeles
WISCONSIN 85 ARIZONA 78 – 1.64. That is the PPP count that Wisconsin turned in over the final 20 minutes, after trailing at halftime, and playing under the extreme pressure of elimination against the #3 defense in the nation. 1.64. To better grasp that, it was nearly twice what the Wildcats allowed this season (88.3). You can not sustain a 1.64 against that class of defense for a full half in a big game, but the Badgers did. They made shot after shot, many of them near the end of the clock after the Arizona defenders had actually accomplished what they had set out to do. Sam Dekker having to force one up from several feet beyond the three-point arc? Sean Miller would certainly live with that on the release. But the shots went in, and Miller's season is over. On this day, there was nothing he could do.
Dekker has been the best player since the start of the Sweet 16 (this being written before the Sunday games), with 50 points and 15 rebounds, the scoring production coming despite only 26 FG attempts. It has been off the charts efficiency. He and Frank Kaminsky combined for 36 second-half points on Saturday, Dekker knocking down all five of his 3-point attempts. As a team the Badgers were 10-12 beyond the arc in the second half, with so many of the makes coming at the end of what were actually good defensive sequences.
Some of that did stem from the one dark cloud on Saturday – the officiating crew for this game made it difficult on the defenses. Despite the game not being played at a fast tempo, and both teams fundamentally sound on defensive, there were 43 fouls called, setting up 61 FT attempts. For as well as Wisconsin shot the ball, it was the season-high in fouls against Bo Ryan’s team, and by far the season-high in point production for the other side at the FT line, where Arizona knocked down 28-30. Unfortunately, it was an issue that dinged the pocket, a First Half Under 62 ticket that was seemingly under control (51 points at the final media time-out at 2:39), getting turned around because of eight made FTs the rest of the way, the teams scoring on nine of the last 10 opening half possessions. It was just enough to get to 63. Usually one of the keys to First Half Under’s, especially in Wisconsin games, are low foul counts that do not get either team into the bonus. This flow was much different – Stanley Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson fouled out for Arizona, and five different players on the two teams ended the game with four.
The Wildcats could not have executed much better on offense themselves – it was a crisp 1.21 PPP, with five players scoring in double figures, and perhaps Johnson only being prevented from getting there because of time he had to miss after being accidentally being hit in the eye by a teammate. They were able to use their athleticism to convert easily around the basket, making 22-37 on 2-point attempts, but while that gets over-shadowed in their 2014-15 epitaph, that notion remains alive in terms of grading the Badgers going forward.
Now it is Wisconsin/Kentucky in the Final Four, a rematch of the dramatic 74-73 Wildcat win in front of 79,444 at Arlington LY, when Aaron Harrison made that memorable triple with 0:07 remaining, before Traevon Jackson missed at the other end six game seconds later. But for much of last evening, Ryan could not begin his scouting process, because he did not know who he was going to be facing…
At Cleveland
KENTUCKY 68 NOTRE DAME 66 – This one could be reviewed for pages (ages?), based on the ebbs and flows and plot twists. There was Notre Dame executing so well on offense, Zach Auguste being aggressive at attacking the rim even if he was not big enough to protect the post on the other end, and Pat Connaughton showing a will to compete on the glass, helping the Fighting Irish to more than hold their own in battling for caroms (even though Kentucky did get available offensive rebounds at a 40 percent rate). And then there was that clutch Kentucky offense under pressure -
10:24 – Willie Cauley-Stein Dunk
9:47 - Trey Lyles layup
8:09 – Karl-Anthony Townes layup
7:24 – Karl-Anthony Townes jumper
5:56 – Tyler Ulis 3-pointer
5:07 – Aaron Harrison dunk
4:08 – Karl-Anthony Townes layup
3:18 – Aaron Harrison 3-pointer
1:14 – Karl-Anthony Townes layup
Those were the only FG attempts after the media time-out at 11:15. They made all of them. But instead of looking back, let’s use that game to work forward, in terms of anticipating the first of the Final Four matchups.
Why was Notre Dame so successful? Because for as good as this Kentucky defense is, arguably the best ever in the college game, it is not perfect – there is a weakness. So let’s start with some copy-and-paste, a take in the thread following yesterday’s column, responding to a question about the matchup in Cleveland, because it certainly matters – “I believe the ND offense matches up as well as any vs. this defense, with the ability of Grant/Jackson to beat the Harrison's off the dribble and draw other defenders, which will create kick-outs for decent 3-point looks. And it also means the Kentucky big guys are going to have to guard far from the basket.”
There was one flaw to that thinking – the Irish did not use the penetration by Grant and Jackson merely for open triples, they were actually able to create attempts right at the basket, converting 22-42 of their 2-point shot attempts, and generating 16 assists on the 26 made FGs overall (Grant and Jackson combining for 10). That is the Kentucky flaw – while the Harrison twins are far bigger than almost all of their opponents, and can use that size effectively in many settings, they are not going to stop dribble penetration from quality smaller guards. Because of that look at the numbers – only 29 minutes for Andrew and 27 for Aaron, while Ulis played 24 and Devin Booker 27. That was how Calipari had to counter, in what is now a much shorter rotation (in competitive games vs. ND and Cincinnati, only seven players got 10:00 or more).
OK, so now you begin licking your chops and thinking, hey, Wisconsin’s offense was #1 in the nation by a wide margin in PPP this season, can’t the Badgers do the same thing? They did score pretty effectively against Kentucky in LY’s Final Four loss. But now for a sobering truth as you begin to break the game down – it is a much different matchup. Wisconsin does not have the guards to break the Wildcats down off the dribble, and for as monumental as that offensive showing was vs. Arizona, the Badger guards only have five assists. Bronson Koenig is not going to drive past either Harrison, and in fact might struggle against their size. Jackson has shown that capacity in the past, but does not have it right now, being limited to seven minutes on Saturday in which he went 0-1 from the field, with no assists and a turnover.
How much better can Jackson get in a week? That is a difficult question to answer, but it will certainly be one of the keys as the “In-Running” wagering portfolio gets laid out during the game. And here is another – that box score from last April may not mean all that much. Missing from the Kentucky rotation that evening was Cauley-Stein, who can be about as good of a counter for the Kaminsky/Dekker tandem as there has ever been in the college game. When they matched up LY, it was the Wisconsin bigs forcing Dakari Johnson and Julius Randle to step further away from the basket than they were comfortable; that is not relevant this time around.
There will be much to ponder over the course of the week, and many of those mental scribbles will make it to this page. But for now your takeaway should be focused on the style aspect of what Notre Dame did on Saturday – there were particular advantages Mike Brey’s guards had that could be used tactically. Wisconsin is better overall than Notre Dame, but does not bring those tactical advantages. There is still Ryan on the sidelines, and giving him a full week to work with a veteran roster brings the expectation of a rather exquisite game plan. But on the first approach this matchup is not nearly as good for him offensively as it was 12 months ago, something that the markets may not appreciate.
The market aspect is also something to keep in mind – for all of the talk about Kentucky chasing history across the Sports Mediaverse, more money showed up at the windows over the past two games to play against Calipari’s team rather than for them, including significant Notre Dame Second Half action last night.
Now may Sunday brig us even half of what Saturday did (Sparty works small at -2, no particular bargain at the price, but enough fundamental handicap to be there for something moderate)…
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