Point Blank – March 28
The Tourney Journey #10 – Shame on the NCAA for going back to Houston, Houston, Houston (“Saw a dollar yesterday, but the wind blew it away”)…Not all Tough Losses are Bad Beats…On the admissions requirements, for the Louisville and Michigan State locker rooms…Some early Slow Dancing, out west…
Friday brought plenty of entertainment, with all four teams in the Carrier Dome having the lead in the second half, and an ending in Duke/Utah that caused quite a fuss across the twittersphere and posting forums (I cringe at the silliness the Sports Mediaverse will come up with this morning, and may steer clear). But first, from the standpoint of someone that has followed college basketball with a passion for over three decades, it is a shame for teams that played well enough to earn their way into the Sweet 16 to have to compete at a venue as ill-suited for the sport as the way NRG Stadium in Houston was set up.
The backdrop made for 80 minutes of sloppy play, with all four teams getting off to dismal starts shooting the ball, a combined 4-24 on 3-pointers in the first half, and a 13-57 when all of the counting was done. And this was a collective group of some of the best long-range teams in the nation –
3-Point Rate
#2 Gonzaga (40.3)
#9 Utah (40.1)
#25 Duke (38.9)
#71 UCLA (36.8)
There were good individual players that backed off of even taking the shots, and consider the tale of that Tyus Jones/Quinn Cook back-court for Duke, who only took three triples, not making any. CBS announcer Grant Hill also spoke openly about how bright the lighting was, which did not help matters. But more on that in the individual game breakdowns to come, and also a potential curveball on that particular front for Sunday.
As for that Utah/Duke ending, and a foul call with 0.7 remaining that caused perhaps tens of millions globally to take a different direction, there was a quick flow of tweets and forum posts along those usual lines of “one of the worst Bad Beats in history”. Which is the kind of hyperbole that is commonplace these days. But at least here at POINT BLANK, let’s try to set a standard for sanity that should be adopted by anyone that bets, so that losses are more properly sorted, and it is easier to move ahead to the next game –
BAD BEAT – A game in which a bettor clearly had the right side in an event, and unusual circumstances caused a strong handicap to get turned inside-out.
TOUGH LOSS – A game in which a bettor had a chance at a favorable outcome, but an end-game plot twist turned it the other way.
If you had Utah +5.5, you suffered a Tough Loss, not a Bad Beat. At the final 10 minute-marks the Utes trailed by 11 with 10:00 remaining; by 11 at 9:00; by 15 at 8:00; by 13 at 7:00; by 10 at 6:00; by eight at 5:00; by six at 4:00; by nine at 3:00; by nine at 2:00; and by nine at 1:00. You can’t get a Bad Beat out of that.
Now to the games…
At Syracuse
LOUISVILLE 75 N. C. STATE 65 - You could say that this one was about recruiting, which all games obviously are to a degree, but not necessarily on talent or basketball skills. Sometimes it is about the kind of player that a coach brings in, a certain on-court character and toughness. Louisville has brought that in the Rick Pinto years, enough to have cut down the nets two years ago with a group that has no one lighting it up for pay, and enough to be in the Elite Eight with a group that is nothing special at all from the standpoint of basketball skills or depth. But what the Cardinals showed down the stretch was a mental toughness that N. C. State lacked. The Wolfpack led by six early in the second half, and were still ahead 54-53 at the 6:00 mark, but down the stretch one team played like they expected to win. And their reward is getting to play again.
For the second tourney game in a row, a Louisville offense that has struggled all season, even when Chris Jones was around, made shots. The Cardinals were 27-54 from the field, having their way around the basket to the tune of 24-42 on 2-point attempts, overcoming a 3-12 beyond the arc. Motreszl Harris was the driving force inside, with 24 points on 9-12 shooting, along with seven rebounds and a rather nifty ratio of four assists without a turnover. Terry Rozier continued to vie for all-tourney honors, with 17 points and 14 rebounds. Those two brought 41 of the Louisville 75 points, and it mattered because the team is almost paper-thin right now, with the starters logging 180 of the 200 floor minutes.
But the one guy that did contribute off the bench (it might be wrong to label the three fouls in 9:00 of Chinanu Onuakau as a contribution) came up huge – Anton Gill was 3-3 from the field for seven points, along with two steals and an assist. How big of a surprise was that? He had not scored a point in four previous March games. That shows the tight-rope walk that the Cardinals are on, which becomes a tribute to that mental toughness. N. C. State had the talent to win last night, but not the will down the stretch to make the plays that had to be made.
But now it gets more difficult for Pitino, because there will be no edge in tourney experienced, toughness or grit come Sunday…
MICHIGAN STATE 62 OKLAHOMA 58 - You could say that this one was about recruiting, which all games obviously are to a degree, but not necessarily on talent or basketball skills. Sometimes it is about the kind of player that a coach brings in, a certain on-court character and toughness. Michigan State has brought that in the Tom Izzo years, enough to make being alive at this stage of the tournament seem like a set part of the Spartan schedule, with the fourth Elite Eight over the last seven seasons coming despite a group that is nothing special at all from the standpoint of basketball skills.
Did I write the same damn opening twice? Yes. Because that is just what it looked like in Syracuse. A Michigan State team that I was beginning to give up on back in February, when the usual late-season Izzo progression was not taking place (remember those home losses to Minnesota and Illinois, and how they had to go to OT to escape vs. short-handed Michigan?), has found its game. There were solid wins over Ohio State and Maryland in the Big 10 tourney, a near-miss vs. Wisconsin in that finale in which the Spartans led in double figures deep into the second half, and now a series of successes through this bracket in which they have not been great, but certainly good enough.
Much like last Sunday vs. Dayton, Oklahoma got off to a sizzling start, with the Sooners jumping out 18-8, the first Michigan State defensive rebound not coming until the 13:53 mark. It was Oklahoma showing toughness and surprisingly exerting its will, and the play-by-play does not lie – Jordan Woodard layup at 19:34, TaShawn Thomas layup at 16:30, Thomas dunk at 15:52, Buddy Hield layup at 14:44, and a Khadeem Lattin dunk at 14:27. The Sooners were getting to the basket. It was still a 10-point lead when Hield knocked down a triple at 8:57, but then came the sequence, Sparty becoming Sparty, that turned the game around –
8:32 Denzel Valentine missed Three Point Jumper
8:32 Alvin Ellis III Offensive Rebound
8:22 Alvin Ellis III missed Three Point Jumper
8:22 Gavin Schilling Offensive Rebound
8:16 Gavin Schilling Missed Jumper
8:16 Denzel Valentine Offensive Rebound
8:07 Foul on D. J. Bennett
8:07 Marvin Clark Jr. made Free Throw
8:07 Marvin Clark Jr. missed Free Throw
8:07 Alvin Ellis III Offensive Rebound
8:03 Denzel Valentine missed Jumper
The Sooners finally got the rebound of the Valentine miss, and only one point was scored on the possession. But the way that State scrapped on the boards changed the tone of the proceedings, and by halftime the lead had been closed to four. The second half then became a battle of nerves, much like Louisville/N. C. State, including a stretch at which it remained 39-all from 14:35 to 10:57. This is not a great Spartan edition, but it is one that does not mind grinding, and with a late offensive surge from Travis Trice (nine of the last 11 State points), plus some tough defense (Oklahoma went from 7:12 to 1:05 without a field goal), it was enough to advance.
Now on to Sunday, where you need to make depth a key part of your opening handicap. It is not that fatigue will be a factor, but that Izzo’s bench turned in 42 more floor minutes on Friday than Pitino’s, and that means much more flexibility, especially with the anticipated physical play down low that can lead to foul trouble. Pay particular attention to those early whistles for In-Running purposes.
At Houston
GONZAGA 74 UCLA 62 – One of the keys behind THE TOURNEY JOURNEY cycle is to be able to discuss the idiosyncracies of teams, going beyond the stats and power ratings to show the style elements that make them up, and the strengths and weaknesses that can matter in the handicapping process. This game was a prime example of that. Here was a key part of the takeaway from UCLA’s 92-75 win over UAB in TJ #7 –
“It was not perfect – the perimeter defense was soft, only generating eight turnovers and allowing the Blazers enough space to knock down 12-26 from 3-point range. That is a problem that will not go away – a small back-court lacking depth was #230 in the nation at forcing turnovers this season, and #259 at guarding the 3-point line. That can not be fixed, so make sure to note that in your matchup breakdowns for Houston.”
As such, the precision of the Gonzaga offense and those veteran guards was a truly difficult matchup for Steve Alford, who did not see his team get exposed more fully because of how ridiculous the venue was. Those terrible sight lines helped to limit Kevin Pangos, Gary Bell and Kyle Wiltjer to a combined 1-15 from 3-point range, most of those on wide-open looks, yet the Bruins lost by a dozen anyway.
How does that happen? Part of it, of course, is that they could not make their own perimeter shots. But the key is that they simply could not disrupt the Bulldog offense. Neither Pangos nor Bell had a single turnover in 60 floor minutes, and for the team it was 15 assists vs. only five turnovers, with only one of those miscues coming from a guard (Byron Wesley). While the Gonzaga shots did not fall at a high rate, the Bulldogs were getting the ball where they wanted, and when it was in the hands of Przemek Karnowski and Domantas Sabonis down low, they converted (a combined 30 points on 14-20). The Bulldogs also won the boards 50-39, in a game in which tracking down missed shots (23 of the first 25 triples were missed) was indeed a big part of the proceedings.
Now the matchup changes for Mark Few’s team – instead of having their way on the perimeter in the low-stress tourney ride so far, it will be Duke’s ball pressure on Sunday. That is a significant shifting of the gears, especially since pressure on the defensive perimeter is something that the Bulldogs rarely saw in the WCC as well. As such, that becomes a key starting point for the handicap vs. Duke.
DUKE 63 UTAH 57 – Much like the opener in Houston, the offenses had an awful time settling in – the teams opened 0-11 from the field, and there was not a shot made outside of the defensive circle around the basket until Justise Winslow nailed a triple 7:28 into the proceedings. It took 11:32 for Utah to make a shot outside of the paint. Admittedly there was some terrific defense being played, but the early sloppiness contributed to what remained a stodgy flow throughout, and as noted in the opening, that Cook/Jones back-court for Duke simply gave up on even taking 3-pointers (the miss by Jones at 13:29 of the First Half was the last either would attempt beyond the arc).
Eventually the lack of Utah offensive options saw the margin begin to grow, and a stretch from 12:19 to 7:20 without scoring gave Mike Krzyzewski and his team a 15-point advantage. Which meant time for something that has been discussed here in a couple of TJ columns already – his penchant for slowing things down with a big lead in the second half (the previous mentions being made in terms of betting Halftime Totals). Coach K once again went into that delay game, but this time it felt that he went far too early – while the scoreboard indicated a 15-point lead, it was 49-34, not 69-54. In other words, his offense did not have enough command of the proceedings to be able to work clock for 25-30 seconds, and then be guaranteed a good look.
Was he confident enough that his defense could hold on? That was actually a savvy consideration, because outside of Duke committing the mistake of twice fouling Brandon Taylor in the final minute, the defense did have command. But when he shifted the offense down, it sputtered badly as the gears ended up grinding often. The Blue Devils made one FG over the final 8:55, getting precious few good looks late in the shot clock, and turning the ball over three times. The slowdown strategy worked in terms of winning the game, but it also set up that unique pointspread circus.
There is also the matter of Jhalil Okafor, who has been discussed on these pages before – despite the fact that he is the likely National POY, and also the #1 pick for the NBA draft, there are many flaws in his game, and another year of college would actually do him good. He is not an offensive threat beyond 10 feet, lacks footwork on defense, and has struggled at the FT line. All of that made it intriguing to see the role Krzyzewski drew up for him over the key closing stretch – he was relegated to being a cheerleader, not seeing the floor on offense or defense over the final 12 possessions. He did have eight rebounds in the game, but managed only six points, and had the dubious count of four turnovers without a single assist (as a team, Duke was a hideous -11 in assist to turnover ratio, with much credit due to Larry Krystowiak’s defensive game plan, which helped produce eight steals).
Now comes Sunday, and a game filled with terrific subplots for the basketball connoisseur. Can Okafor establish himself against the Gonzaga size down low? Can Wiltjer find his shots against smaller and quicker defenders? Is the Duke defensive pressure enough to take Pangos/Bell out of their comfort zone? But perhaps the most important read of all is one of the most difficult – the venue itself. The teams should shoot a little better as they get more comfortable, especially with each practicing there today. But in terms of that lighting, the Sunday game is late afternoon, Central Time. Because NRG Stadium is built with a roof that opens, a lot of natural light gets in even when it is closed. Might that natural light take away from the harshness that impacted the Friday proceedings? There is plenty of food for thought there, and much of the next day will be spent attempting to gain insights on that front.
In the Sights…
The Arizona/Wisconsin rematch from last March, just down the road a bit in Anaheim from where they are playing today, has a chance to be special. These two fought it out in dramatic fashion LY, a 54-all tie in regulation and an eventual 64-63 Badger survival. In a thrilling closing stretch, neither team led by more than three points over the final 17:11 ( a remarkable stretch of 45 possessions). This has a chance to be just as close, and also just as slow in terms of pacing. So put the focus on the early stages, in order to avoid a potential end-game scramble, in a matchup that is unlikely to have much distance between the teams, and look to #514 First Half Under 62.
These two played to a 53 in the first half LY, and the pace is not going to deviate much. Arizona wants to run, but will not be able to, and as noted here several times, the Wildcat offense breaks down when forced to execute half-court sets vs. quality opponents. Meanwhile that Arizona defense gives up precious few easy looks, which means a lot of long Wisconsin possessions in the early stages, which is something Bo Ryan is OK with anyway. The pace means few fouls, and as for easy points from the offensive boards forget about it – Arizona is #1 in the nation at clearing the defensive glass, and Wiscy #4. Those elements lead to an early waltz of a tempo, and it would not be a shock if the halftime scoreboard showed each team still in the 20’s.
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