Point Blank – March 5
If you don’t know Bo by now (on Wisconsin, and seeing what you don’t see)…The “Eye Chart” for Nikola Mirotic is on the wall tonight…Some fine print for Brian Shaw’s resume…VCU isn’t so “Smart” these days…
The Thursday NCAA board provides a prime “Eye Test” setting as you start contemplating brackets. It is one that many of us can take for granted these days, but then comes the realization that there is still a significant part of the marketplace that still Doesn’t Know Bo. As in Ryan. You can read about that in print, listen to audio, and watch video talking heads that continue to under-rate Wisconsin basketball, largely because former Badgers are not lighting it up in the NBA, where there are no current starters (and only Devin Harris plays meaningful minutes). But you do not need to have great basketball players to win, as long as you play great basketball. Which is the Ryan/Wisconsin way.
Here is where it gets a bit tricky. With Wisconsin playing Minnesota on ESPN tonight, it would be the ideal time to detail all of the things to look for, so that anyone can fully appreciate what the Badgers do. But it does not quite work that way. The conundrum is that many of the keys to the success of Ryan’s teams through the years are the things that you do not see. In particular this season are a couple of absolute strengths – you do not see turnovers, or fouls. They are #1 in the nation in both committing the fewest turnovers and the fewest fouls, by a significant margin in each category, and that combination sets up some major game flow advantages.
Basketball is unique among the major sports in that offense and defense are intertwined. Your objective when in possession of the ball is naturally to score, but priority #2 is to get a good shot out of the offensive structure. A good shot is one in which your teammates know that you are going to shoot, so they can react appropriately – either going to the boards, or getting back to prevent a fast break. When you do that, it forces the opposition to have to set up against your base defense when they do get the ball, and there are nights on which it seems like the other side is having to face the set Badger defenders on every trip. That, in turn, becomes part of that vicious Wisconsin circle – when the defense is set, it also means fewer fouls.
Bobby Knight used to take pride in his Indiana teams making more free throws than their opponents attempted. That is a clear path towards winning. So consider this – not only have the Badgers accomplished that, but they have nearly 100 more makes than opposition attempts (432-333). The fact that they make those FTs at a 75.1 percent clip has led to a +209 on the scoreboard at the charity stripe, a full 10 points per game.
In terms of comparisons, the Badgers turn the ball over on 10.9 percent of their possessions, with no other team better than 12.4, and the NCAA average at 16.7. In ratio of FT attempts to FG attempts allowed it is 14.9 percent, with the next best team at 16.2, and the average at 25.0. They have only committed 364 fouls all season (while drawing 546), and the top six players in the rotation all have a positive assist-to-turnover ratio. That is sparkling fundamental basketball, and you can go a long way with it – Wisconsin played into April last spring before losing that 74-73 heart-breaker to Kentucky in the Final Four. They were a net +46 ATS through the five tourney games, so if you get the right feel for the Badgers now, it will help you to better understand another ride that could last into April again.
As for tonight, it is a better setting to learn than to win, with the line in the right place, but take note of one key element from the 63-53 Wiscy win over Minnesota in Madison two weeks ago – the Golden Gophers only got to the line for one FT attempt all evening (which they missed). That shows how much there can be to overcome.
Should we be Bullish on Nikola Mirotic?
The NBA brings a prime Eye Test as well, as Oklahoma City has to travel off of last night’s draining OT win over Philadelphia (42:24 for Russell Westbrook, on a night when Scott Brooks would have otherwise liked to have had him out early) to face Chicago. And that puts Mirotic in the spotlight. After scoring 52 points in 62:23 of court time while taking a lot of the Jimmy Butler minutes the last two games, including 24 in the fourth quarter, the question becomes whether he can really be this effective, or if it instead means teams will now get a better focus on him in game planning.
Mirotic indeed has upside – at 6-10 he can post up smaller defenders, or drive past taller and slower guys, creating positive options for Tom Thibedeau. Joakim Noah certainly recognizes those abilities – “Niko’s a stud. Floor spacing is very important in this league. Niko can do that very well.” But Mirotic had also scored only 58 points in the previous 12 games prior to those last two, and is only shooting 40.2 percent for the season. How ready is he, if defenses will now be preparing for him? There could be something interesting to see here, which makes tonight a prime opportunity in that learning process.
About Last Night, NBA (Melvin Hunt is 2-0/Brian Shaw closed 2-19)…
There will continually be takes written here about adjusting power ratings based on key players being out, and that notion of attaching less weight on those results for both the team with the injury, and their opponent that night. Could the Denver Nuggets be providing us with a rare setting in which that weighting also needs to be altered based on the coaching staff? As noted on more than one occasion recently, the team basically quit on Brian Shaw, going 1-12 SU and 2-11 ATS over his final 13 games. It was difficult to gauge just how bad the effort was until the first two games without him produced their scoreboards, easy wins and covers in which the pointspread was shattered by 38.5 points.
In order to have a savvy power rating on Denver, many of the games in the closing salvo for Shaw are best given as little weight as possible, or even thrown out completely. That in turn also means reducing their impact on the ratings of the opposition through that cycle – you do not want teams getting credit for easy wins that really do not mean all that much. As for Shaw, there might have to be some embarrassing fine print near the bottom of his resume:
* - By the way, the Nuggets won as many games in the first two without me as they did in the last 21 with me.
In the Sights…
The injury to Briante Webber of VCU has been dealt with a couple of times here, first back in January to note the impact his absence would bring, and then updating the results this past Monday. The link to Monday’s column at the bottom of the page takes you to that most enlightening stat of the Rams being out-scored 19-0 in fast break points in those losses to Richmond and Dayton last week, something that is rather shocking for a Shaka Smart team. But given the limitations of the current rotation without Weber, that is who they are, which takes us to #540 Davidson tonight.
Most of the bracket projections out there have VCU in the field, despite being unworthy without Weber, and Davidson just on the outside looking in. That makes this a major showcase game for the Wildcats, with a sell-out crowd on Senior Night for one of the biggest home games ever for the program, including having the ESPNU cameras on hand. And making it even better is that they are a “fit” for this matchup.
Take to heart what was said about Wisconsin as today’s lead topic, and also about what was written about Notre Dame yesterday, and how the ability of the Fighting Irish to handle the Louisville presses made that such an advantageous matchup (the Irish worked through that defense to the tune of 53.5 percent shooting in a comfortable win). Now bring Davidson into the mix. The Wildcats run some of the best offense in Division I; #2 behind Wisconsin, and right ahead of Notre Dame, in adjusted turnover rate. They will be one of the rare teams to have three different players with over 100 assists in the same season (Tyler Kalinoski and Brian Sullivan are already there; Jack Gibbs is at 95 because he had to miss seven games), and the top eight in the rotation all have more assists that turnovers.
Here is the drill with VCU – handle those presses, and force the Rams to make shots out of their half-court offense, and they become extremely inefficient. That was visible in those last two defeats, when they shot just 37-111, an example of what can happen when they are not getting easy transition baskets. Davidson’s poise with the ball should bring that squarely into play, especially in the second look against Smart’s defense. They competed well against the Rams in Richmond, falling 71-65 despite Weber’s presence (he had six assists and four steals), and bring the tools to take care of business in the rematch.
This Week at Point Blank –
Monday: What a “Bettor Better Know” – The Weekend in Review
Tuesday: When they shout “Play Ball”, walk away (remembering Dave Parker, and spring with Old Joe)…A roster that won’t be Brewin’ up many wins…Curry, Thompson & Green shot 2-15 in the 1st Half last night (reviewing before shredding)
Wednesday: Coach K will make a statement tonight (does he need to be guarded with his Guards)…Rudy Gobert, and All That Jazz…Jayhawks of the Lost Arc…The end-game gambit, In Louisville