Point Blank – March 4
Coach K will make a statement tonight (does he need to be guarded with his Guards)…Rudy Gobert, and All That Jazz…Jayhawks of the Lost Arc…The end-game gambit, in Louisville…
These are not the best of times for Mike Krzyzewski in Durham, having to deal with more details about the reasons behind the dismissal of Rasheed Sulaimon from Duke basketball becoming known. He has naturally been reserved about discussing that, although it can not help but be a little bit of a cloud over the rest of team. But while Coach K has been quiet about discussing the Sulaimon situation as the media attention magnifies, there is also a practical aspect on the court that is confronting him. And it well could impact his rotation tonight.
This was not a deep or experienced Blue Devil team to begin with, which made a veteran like Sulaimon more important than his individual statistics could show. What is has done is force starting guards Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones to take on yeoman-like workloads, and take a look at their minute counts in the nine games since that dismissal:
Floor minutes, L9 games:
Cook 358
Jones 350
That is awfully close to the max that a full 40 per game would bring, with Duke playing 370 floor minutes in that span because of two games going to OT. That is not the position any HC wants to be in with his key cogs heading into the key phase of the season, and it puts a spotlight on the game vs. Wake Forest this evening. On deck is the Saturday night showdown at North Carolina, then the ACC tournament, and then the Big Dance. Is this the setting that the back-court minutes get managed a bit?
It is most likely that the senior Cook will not play the full 40 – in his last game at Cameron, the preferred plan would be for him to get a bow-out in front of the Crazies with the scoreboard outcome in hand in the final minutes. With Duke favored by -18.5, that opportunity should be there. But watch closely when Cook is playing – his 5-15 vs. Syracuse on Saturday, which included 1-8 beyond the arc, was hit worst shooting game of the season. Meanwhile Jones is also showing signs of wearing down, which could be expected from a freshman – over the last three games it has been 10-28 from the field, and just 3-12 from 3-point range.
The question is how to take advantage. Is it a night in which the best option is to call for Krzyzewski to be more of a game manager, limiting the possessions and in particular going to his delay offense with a late lead (an offense that has been in play the last couple of games)? Or is it more of an opportunity to take the large spread, since a win matters to Duke, but a margin certainly does not? Perhaps the In-Running or Second Half will offer the best options as this one unfolds, but for those of you that can play correlated parlays without having to hear complaints, a Demon Deacons & Under combination brings a reasonable degree of basketball logic.
About Last Night, NBA…
The Utah run since the All Star break is now 5-1 SU and ATS, with the Jazz statistically playing the NBA’s best defense in that span, remarkably allowing 82 points or less in each of those wins (87.7 PP100), and rating #2 to Oklahoma City in rebound margin. The challenge becomes how much to accept it, because there was indeed an inexcusable home loss to the Lakers, while Portland was caught without LaMarcus Aldridge; Memphis sans Zach Randolph; and Denver with Brian Shaw. And the biggest part of trying to establish a proper new power rating is what the hell do we do with Rudy Gobert?
Gobert’s on-court performances were not all that special in France, but he raised eyebrows at the NBA combine when he set records for both wingspan and standing reach (the former broken a year later by Walter Tavares). It was enough for Denver to draft him with the #27 overall pick in June of 2013, before he was traded to the Jazz. In the 7-2 Gobert’s rookie season he only averaged 9.6 minutes per game, clearly being a work in progress, which was allowed because he lacked big-time competition, and did not turn 22 until the season was over.
There were a few flashes before the All Star break, but since then the numbers have been dramatic – he has scored in double figures in each of his last four games, has reached double figures in rebounds in four of the last five, and has blocked 20 shots in 190:48 of playing time. At Memphis he grabbed a remarkable 24 rebounds in just 36:09. Yes, he was not battling Randolph for those caroms, but his size and athleticism show a tremendous upside.
For now, do not be afraid to adjust quickly – like many sub-.500 teams, the Jazz are finding that winning is fun, which lessens the weight of their earlier failures, and renders some of those statistics stale. There is plenty for the eye test ahead, but your best approach is to be attaching more weight to post-All Star break results, and looking closely for signs of true legitimacy from this bunch. They could be the kind of scrappy underdog that will bring value against playoff-bound favorites that are only looking to win games, and not build margins, down the stretch.
About Last Night, NCAA…
Heading in to Saturday’s home clash vs. Texas, Kansas was leading the Big 12 in 3-point shooting, connecting at 41% though 15 conference games, an exceptional level of efficiency. But over 85 floor minutes since then, it was a dismal 1-23 beyond the arc, including 0-15 vs. West Virginia last night. Yet Bill Self’s team managed to find a way to scratch and claw to victory each time, rallying from second half deficits despite not having what had been the best tool in their belt functioning properly.
Consider that to actually be a good sign. The Jayhawks had to play each of those games without Cliff Alexander, and only got 17 minutes from Perry Ellis vs. the Mountaineers on Tuesday night. To be able to gut out those wins tells us something about their resolve, and while they may not bring the appearance of a team reaching their peak as the tourneys approach, what they learned about themselves over those last two second-half rallies is something worth paying close attention to, as the power ratings get those usual March adjustments for “true capacity”.
In the Sights…
For #729 Notre Dame and Louisville to play a competitive game that goes to the final possession would not be news – in a rather remarkable series, seven of the last 13 Mike Brey vs. Rick Pitino matchups have gone to overtime. This one shapes up much like those precedents, and if that is the case the end game brings some genuine handicapping intrigue.
The Cardinals are being priced as though “most is well” in the post-Chris Jones era, but you should not be using that rubber stamp yet. They rallied to gut out a tense 52-51 win at Georgia Tech partially on merit, but also on the fact that losing close games is what the Yellow Jackets do (0-10 in ACC games decided by five points or less in regulation, something that will not look good on Brian Gregory’s resume, which he will need to begin preparing after the ACC tourney). And while the 81-59 rout of Florida State may have looked like a break-out, it did not solve the issues of the half-court offense being so disjointed – the Seminoles turned the ball over 21 times, many of them leading to easy points. If anything, there was a bit of a dark cloud for Louisville in that game – even in winning by 22, Terry Rozier had to play 38 minutes, Wayne Blackshear 37, and Montrezl Harrell 36. This is not the usual Pitino rotation.
In terms of tonight the matchup intrigue begins with Notre Dame simply not turning the ball over – the Fighting Irish are #2 in the nation in adjusted turnover rate, behind only Wisconsin. They have had more than a full week to prepare a game plan for the Cardinal presses, and a case could be made that no guard in the country is a better candidate to withstand them than Jerrian Grant, who is not only #5 in the ACC in scoring, but rates #1 in assist-to-turnover ratio. And that is where this end-game could provide the biggest edge – if it is indeed close late, it is the senior Grant, making his 109th career start, up against freshman Quentin Snyder, making his 4th, in the key one-on-one battle at PG. That is the kind of matchup that should have you shopping for a little money line as part of your ticket. As for the pointspread itself, there can be a carry-over from one of the topics in yesterday’s thread, and how bad Florida was at the FT line when Michael Frazier’s numbers were removed, which had a direct ATS impact vs. Texas A&M. Take Jones away, and the Cardinals only check in at 64.6 percent. That can certainly matter in this price range.
This Week at Point Blank –
Monday: What a “Bettor Better Know” – The Weekend in Review
Tuesday: When they shout “Play Ball”, walk away (remembering Dave Parker, and spring with Old Joe)…A roster that won’t be Brew’ up many wins…Curry, Thompson & Green shot 2-15 in the 1st Half last night (reviewing before shredding)