Point Blank – March 3
When they shout “Play Ball”, just walk away (remembering Dave Parker, and spring with Old Joe)…A roster that won’t be Brewin’ up many wins…Curry, Thompson & Green shot 2-15 in the First Half last night (reviewing before shredding)…
Daily baseball returns to the betting boards this afternoon with the opening of spring training, and you should not care. Sure, you can pay some attention if you like, to help gain a better feel for the teams as they work their way into shape. But trying to make money off of it? Just walk away. I did that nearly 30 years ago, and have never looked back.
There have already been many references here to “Old Joe” since beginning this daily adventure back in August, and there will be many more to come over the years. He was one of a kind, among the most successful sports bettors this arena will ever see, and also quite a character. We were partners for three decades, but more important through that time we became close friends.
“Joe” is no longer with us, having been taken away by cancer in the autumn of 2013, but the memories will linger as long as I am breathing, including his last trip to Las Vegas, which produced a rare photo -
taken from an evening over at Forte, an eclectic Mediterranean/Eastern European bistro that is a particular favorite of mine (4180 South Rainbow). And joining us in the photo is Nina Manchev, the inspiration behind Forte, and someone that brings the spirit and passion to live a life much like “Joe” did. It was an honor for me to be among the finest of his generation, and someone who will likely earn that classification in hers.
But enough of that, time to talk pre-season baseball…
“Joe” and I, you see, were going to get real smart back in the mid 1980’s. I was living in Pennsylvania at the time, and was making it a habit each March to visit him in Florida once the NCAA tournament got through the first opening weekend, and the workload settled down. We would review the football and basketball seasons and toss around ideas for the years ahead, and I would make my way to some exhibition MLB games, since several teams were within a casual drive from his home.
Naturally the idea struck that we might be able to earn off of those games. This was pre-Internet, with no dreams yet of any “screens” being out there, so even the sharpest of Books would be a little slow on the MLB action. If I was right there on-site, I would have access to the lineups that were not commonly distributed at the time, and we would have an edge. Sounds promising, doesn’t it? Yet it only took a couple of days to realize that we didn’t have a clue, and the best way to reference that is by using Dave Parker as the example.
Parker was just past his prime around then, and was awfully entertaining in those games. He would spend much of the time joking with fans, and only taking minor jogs to chase down balls hit into the gap, seemingly daring runners to try to turn a double into a triple, so that he could show off his arm. And in doing that he provided quite a contrast to the younger players that were giving it their all to either make the roster then, or impress the big league coaching staff enough to be well-remembered when they got assigned to the Minors after breaking camp.
That issue became a quick read – knowing that a team was playing their supposed “better” lineup was not going to actually mean anything. If the starters were just playing their way into physical and mental shape, often working on things for the long haul that can actually be counterproductive in a given game (a pitcher experimenting with a different grip; a hitter intentionally trying to go to the opposite field; etc.), they were not primed to produce positive scoreboard results. Many simply did not care. Meanwhile those that were anything but household names were busting their gut to play well that very day.
And that was pretty much that. The experiment lasted less than a week. I have seen or read nothing since then to lead me to think any differently about these settings, but at least in the process of putting this into words it has brought back some terrific memories. After I moved to Las Vegas the March gatherings ceased, but the communication with “Old Joe” never did, and it paved the way to develop some substantial edges across many sports platforms. Just none of them for the MLB Diamonds, until they start keeping score for real in April.
Meanwhile a bet you can make…
But that does not mean that you can’t be making some headway with your Baseball portfolio right now. Eric Strasser will be an ace in our pitching rotation all season, and is the author of the recently-published “Betting Baseball for Profit” (https://palmtreehandicapping.com/baseball-betting-profit/). Having given us a lead on the Pirates Over 83.5 and Any Pitcher Over 17 Losses already, I tapped into him for some help today – I did not want the readers to have to go through a long diatribe only to come away with nothing. So take it away, Mr. Strasser -
Milwaukee Brewers under 79
This number seems to be trending lower, but under 79 -110 is still available now at a few good shops. I was on the other side of this in 2014 with a bet on the Brewers to exceed 80 wins. They got as high as 20 games over .500, before barely holding on for a winning season in September. I believe this team is significantly worse than the 2014 edition, while the rest of the division is better.
There’s nothing special anywhere about this Brewers team. The offense is decent, but the same group of players (minus Adam Lind) averaged barely more than seven baserunners per game over the last six weeks of the 2014 season. I do think getting Lind was a very good move as they are extremely right-handed, with only Scooter Gennett hitting from the left side.
The rotation is below average. Matt Garza gets the opening-day start, but the rest consists of what I would consider to be four number #3’s and Mike Fiers who has the potential to be a #2. The bullpen is also average to below average. The two most important arms in 2014 were Zach Duke and Francisco Rodriguez. Duke is now in Chicago with the White Sox, and K-Rod tried mightily to land a free-agent contract elsewhere before finally re-signing with the Brewers.
The biggest problem for me is the manager - I think Ron Reinecke ranks among the worst in all of baseball. He mismanaged his roster so badly in 2014 that by the last week of the season the team had absolutely nothing left. They finished poorly offensively, and the bullpen was so over-used early in the year that was totally blown out by August. In some ways it’s tough to blame Reinecke, however, which really points to the value here - there is absolutely no quality depth on the roster. The pitching depth is so bad that Dontrelle Willis might be the seventh starter, if injuries hit.
My feeling on this team is that the lineup is average, the bullpen is average, and the rotation is well below average. There is no depth, the manager is out of his element and they are in a very tough division. I just can’t see this being a winning season for the Brewers.
About Last Night (learning before shredding)…
Sports analysis brings a lot of situations that can not be measured with mathematical precision because each set of circumstances bring their own unique twists. There literally are never any two games that are exactly alike, which means a lot of judgments have to be made each day. As such, before placing Monday’s Golden State/New Jersey First Half Under ticket into the shredder, it is time to sort through another of those conundrums – does fatigue affect offense or defense the most? And guess what Sport does to us? It offers up the answer of “Both”.
As noted yesterday, a key to that handicap was the intense rally the Warriors made to catch and pass Boston on Sunday, noting that – “It was a surprise that Steve Kerr chased yesterday’s game at Boston the way that he did, rallying from 26 points down to get the win. It led to Draymond Green going 43:46, Klay Thompson 38:17 and Stephen Curry 37:38.” That created the anticipation that those key Golden State offensive cogs would come out leg-weary, an issue for a team that scores a lot of their points from the perimeter. So what happened? Those three combined to shoot 2-15 in the first half, combining for just five points. And most nights, that trio performing so poorly would have produced a significant edge to the Under ticket. Not this one.
The problem was that the Warrior starters were every bit as bad on defense as they were on offense, allowing the Nets to shoot 70.8 percent in the first quarter. The Brooklyn offense got the ball inside with ease, with Brook Lopez already topping his ppg average of 15.5 by intermission (16). It was a case of a defense that rates #1 on the best NBA charts not being active at all – by halftime Brooklyn had 45 FG attempts but only five FTs, a sign that the defense was not bringing much physicality to the proceedings. The offense from the key cogs was indeed bad; the defense may have been even worse. As is the pattern, we live and learn…
This Week at Point Blank –
Monday: What a “Bettor Better Know” – The Weekend in Review