Point Blank – January 21
A character test for Houston…LaMarcus Aldridge stays home (and don’t be fooled by a misleading measurement)…Wisconsin did not have a turnover (*) vs. Iowa…On Pistons and Pendulums…
Tonight’s game at Golden State is probably more important than it should be for the Rockets. At 29-13, and just a half game out of first place in the Southwest, there should be plenty of confidence and energy as they work their way into Western Conference positioning. But a team loaded with physical talent still has some major issues when it comes to the way they play the game, still far too often drifting into one-on-one play instead of working as a team (only the 76ers have more turnovers). And if that is your weakness, there is not a worse team to play than the Warriors. Hence, the microscope comes out tonight, and a label of “Pretender” has already been prepared for the post-mortem slide.
This will be the fourth go-round between these teams already, with Golden State cruising to a 3-0 SU and ATS, controlling the scoreboard by 48 points and exceeding the market expectations by 37.5. Two of them you can discount, because of the absence of Dwight Howard. But on Saturday night they had a prime setting to turn those first two defeats around – Howard was in the lineup, the team had Friday off, and the Warriors were having to travel after losing at Oklahoma City. It was such a good setting that the marketplace sent the Rockets to the court at -2 at post. Yet the game was no contest, a 131-106 Golden State rout in which the Rockets got undressed on multiple occasions, allowing runs of 11-0 and 12-0 in the second half.
Naturally there is going to be a certain level of “talk” coming from the locker room, with the following from Howard something that could almost be scripted before a microphone was turned on - “We have to play better this time. That game should fire us for what they did, then they celebrated on the floor after. We have to come out and try to knock them out early. Even if the game was later on, we are going to remember that. They put up a lot of points, they played good basketball and it really upset us to allow a team to come into our building and blow us out the way they did.”
But does this team have the basketball chemistry to match up against this class of opponent, and the internal will to handle a difficult situation? And connect the team on the court to Kevin McHale on the sidelines, a guy who won plenty of post-season games as a player, but has yet to win a playoff series as a coach. McHale was asked after Monday’s win over Indiana why his team continues to be so inconsistent, and his answer speaks volumes -
“No idea. It’s like saying I keep running into the same tree with my car. You think if I knew what the hell I was doing, I would keep on running into the same one? I have no idea. We work hard on stuff. We’re working harder. We are working on our transition defense more. Even though this is a tough part of the season, we are working hard in practice here and trying to get stuff cleaned up.”
The notions of professional pride may point you to Houston double revenge tonight. The pendulums of basketball usually behave in a way in which a team good enough to be 29-13 should pull closer to just about any opponent that it has lost to by -48 over three games. I simply do not trust the Rockets nearly enough to back those notions up with $$$.
Somebody in the Sports Mediaverse or Handicapping Fraternity will say this today…
“Portland is 3-1 SU and ATS without LaMarcus Aldridge this season”.
When that happens, ignore it. Yes, that is what quick research of a database will show. What you need to know is that the three wins were at home against Brooklyn, Philadelphia and New York, teams that are a combined 31-93, and were caught on extended western trips. The loss came at Houston, when the Trail Blazers fell to the spread by 10 points. Takes on a different meaning, doesn’t it?
This is a difficult game for the oddsmakers to tweak, not only because of what Aldridge means to his team, but also in terms of how much benefit the Suns get from their current schedule cycle. This is their fourth game in a span of eight straight at home, the longest in the history of the franchise. Tonight’s tipoff marks their 10th day at home since the stretch began, twice having multiple days to prepare for an opponent. This is a rare chance for some genuine in-season practice time, and in particular watch closely how Jeff Hornacek finds a way to tinker with that three-PG rotation.
It is that rotation of Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas that really comes front-and-center tonight. With Damian Lillard having to carry much more of the Portland offensive load, can Hornacek use his depth at the position to defend aggressively and try to wear him down? That “game inside the game” notion brings plenty of intrigue.
About Last Night…
Last week there was a take on how the markets were not adjusting Wisconsin all that much for the loss of PG Traevon Jackson, despite his 84 starts and 107 career games, and the lack of depth at the position. But what the Badgers did on Tuesday was about as close to flawless as a basketball game can be played, even without their floor leader. Depending on how you classify it, they destroyed a good Iowa team 82-50 without a single turnover, or with just one. It was simply impeccable basketball.
Some box scores, those filed immediately after the game but not updated, will show 16 assists and no turnovers. What was in question was the first Badger possession of the second half, when an air-ball near the end of the shot clock became a violation because it did not hit the rim. Technically that is a turnover, instead of a missed shot. But by being so clean with the ball, they put up 1.52 PP100, on a night on which their shooting was good (29-59, 9-22 triples), but not necessarily brilliant.
Yes, the Badgers were already #1 in the nation in turnover percentage coming in, and now that category is not all that close – they only give the ball away on 12.7 percent of possessions, with no other team under 14.0. But this was against a good Iowa team that will be dancing in March. It is yet one more tribute to the way that Bo Ryan teaches the game, showing that execution, precision and team chemistry can go a long way, even without McDonald’s All-Americans dotting the lineup.
In the Sights…
It was not long ago that stores had difficult giving the Detroit Pistons away, but as was noted here on several occasions, they got a big boost in terms of team chemistry and locker room energy when Josh Smith was sent packing. Since then it has been an 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS surge. But you know what markets do – they adjust. And sometimes to slow down the flow to a hot side they adjust too far. That may be the case tonight, with -8.5 now being attached to a team that may have a better flow than the earlier part of the season, but is still nothing special. This is a bunch that is not going to get many easy wins.
#707 Orlando helps to bring the value point because the Magic lack sex appeal, but since Christmas they have gone 5-1 ATS as road underdogs, winning three of those games outright. The key is that tonight is actually a bigger focus point of a game than many will perceive, with two days to prepare against an opponent that drubbed them 109-86 in Orlando in late December. And Jacque Vaughn has set the tone through a tough practice session that one wants to see from an underdog in this price range - "I want confrontation. I want hostility. I want aversion. I want nastiness. I want all of the above for us to grow as a team."
Just bringing the right amount of grit to the arena puts Orlando in the hunt against a favorite that just does not have the oomph to be successful very often in this nouveau spread range. In this case, those that successfully bought low on the Pistons can now add to those earnings by selling high.
This Week at Point Blank
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – Weekend Starting Five
Tuesday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL Conference Championships…Steve Kerr’s bench Warriors…Be careful with Florida assumptions…