Point Blank – January 19
What a “Bettor Better Know” – Weekend Starting Five
The Weekend that Was on the Hardwoods, and because Martin Luther King Day extends the NBA into today’s full slate, let’s make this an All NCAA edition, with many of the recent NBA results, to be touched upon over the course of the week.
Item: Coach K goes Zone
It was a major surprise from this end to see Duke easily handle Louisville on Saturday – a young Blue Devil team that had been struggling to deal with the physical level of ACC play did not have a favorable matchup against the aggressive Cardinals. But Mike Krzyzewski altered that by doing something he had been allergic to throughout his coaching career – playing a zone defense. It was a 2-3 that the team had tinkered with a bit in practice, but had never used in a game until Saturday. And in worked, in terms of that game result - Louisville was forced to shoot from the perimeter, and missed, going just 4-25 from 3-point range (outside of Terry Rozier, it was 1-18).
So now the question going forward – was that a one-off, or will Duke become a zone team with this grouping? It makes Monday’s home game against Pittsburgh in Cameron a prime “Watch and Learn” setting, largely because the Panthers can be every bit as bad from long range as Louisville (15-57 over five ACC games, all against the lower echelon of the league). But perhaps an even more pertinent question is how good that zone can be. Despite the great box score from Saturday, it really was not anything special.
Coach K perhaps observed it best – “They missed shots, and we were lucky about that. We feel fortunate to win.” And from Rick Pitino - "I've said it all along: We're not as good as the past three years for one reason, which saw against Kentucky, which you (Saturday). We can't knock down easy shots inside or outside, so we've got to be really meticulous in every other area … More than any game I has seen this year, this was the most open we’ve been, and we just could not knock down the shot.” A close look at the Saturday video shows how many open looks the Cardinals had, and also that they came away with 18 offensive rebounds (the Blue Devils cleared the defensive glass 26 times).
But suppose Krzyzewski stays with it, and they get a chance to practice and become better? Some of his longer term view was also a part of the Saturday post-game - “Before you’re critical, constructively, with your team, you say, ‘Am I putting my team in the best position to be successful offensively and defensively?’ … Our offense has negatively influenced our defense. And today, giving them something a little bit new, where they had each other’s back, helped them, even though we’re still not there offensively.”
That puts tonight in focus, because not only can Pittsburgh go long stretches without making a perimeter jumper, that Panther weakness on the boards, discussed here last week, makes them extremely vulnerable as they finally step up in class. Even in beating Georgia Tech on Saturday they were out-rebounded 39-29. Just a little better version of a Duke zone defense could make this a long night for Jamie Dixon.
Item: Is this what Thad Matta was afraid of?
While Coach K went to a zone for the first time, another long-term man-to-man practitioner that had been experimenting with it, but backed away, showed evidence of perhaps why he was using that tactic in the first place. In this case, it is Ohio State’s Thad Matta. Matta played a lot of 2-3 zone prior to Big 10 play coming around, stating that it enabled him to get his best offensive group on the floor. But could that also have been a fear that his team just was not good enough to play the style of defense he prefers?
The Big 10 opener vs. Iowa was so poor on the defensive end that it became a topic here, with the Hawkeyes slicing through them for an easy win. Matta junked the zone, and the Buckeyes had a modicum of defensive success in going 3-1 SU and ATS over the next four games. But a few of those games were against struggling offenses, which put the return match against the Hawkeyes under a microscope. And it was easy to see why Matta tinkered with his defense with this group – as it turns out, their man-to-man was not good enough to stop the Hawkeyes either. This time it was 122.3 PP100, with Iowa making 24-47 FG attempts, getting to the line for 25-35 FTs, and only turning the ball over nine times (and note that four of those TOs came from reserves Gabriel Olaseni and Dominique Uhi, who only played a combined 22:00).
Part of this may stem from the natural transition of finally being without Aaron Craft, one of the best on-ball defenders of this generation – in his last three seasons the Buckeyes finished #16, #7 and #12 nationally in defensive efficiency. But this is still a team with five seniors in the rotation that on paper showed plenty of size and experience on that end of the court. Which makes the following appear rather alarming, when you measure the career arc of that senior class:
Ohio State Defense, PP100, Big 10 Games
2011-12: 93.6
2012-13: 95.0
2013-14: 96.2
2014-15: 102.2
Matta made a quite a statement when he went zone early in the season; now it has become easy to understand why. The question now is where he goes next – mid January is not the time to be searching for an identity. Pay particular attention both in power rating the Buckeyes, and also in terms of how the efficiency and pace counts may alter their Totals.
Item: On Virginia, Justin Anderson’s bad day, and those “U-V-A!” chants
There are no such defensive issues at Virginia, where perhaps the only thing that will prevent the Cavaliers from being the nation’s best on that end of the court is the incredible collection of size and talent at Kentucky. Tony Bennett’s squad does it without a roster of McDonald’s All Americans, and on Saturday it was a clinic about team basketball – Justin Anderson may have turned in the worst game of his career, but it just did not matter all that much in a 66-51 spread-covering win at Boston College, while also giving further notice of something else that is becoming an intriguing side issue with this team.
Anderson is one Cavalier that may have some NBA upside, and he entered the game at BC leading the team in scoring at 14.9 ppg, including an ACC-best 55.7 percent from 3-point range. He also averaged 4.6 rpg, and was #3 on the team in assists. Yet against the Eagles he fired nothing but blanks from the field (0-8, including 0-4 triples), did not have a single rebound over 34:00, and only managed one assist. But he was not fazed – he played solid defense, and made some key FTs as the game broken open down the stretch - "We all know that if we buy in and we trust in each other and we trust our coaching staff, that even through adversity we can come through, and I think we did a great job showing that tonight."
For that good of a team showing in what may have been the worst game of Anderson’s career speaks volumes. But also intriguing from that win were the decibel levels of Cavalier supporters, despite the game being about 500 miles from campus. It was difficult to tell who the home team was by listening to the crowd reactions, and that is something that was not lost on the players. First from London Perrantes – “I heard them right from the beginning. It felt like there was more UVA fans than Boston College fans, and I loved that. We all loved that. They travel well, and it’s great for us.” And from Anthony Gill – “That was amazing. It kind of reminded me of the ACC tournament last year.”
This will not be a factor at ACC venues where tickets are hard to come by for visiting teams. But file that away when the Cavaliers head to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech next Sunday – it could easily become a “neutral” setting, with Virginia fans grabbing many of the available seats.
Item: How fragile is Syracuse?
Syracuse went to Clemson at 13-4 overall, and 4-0 in ACC play, so the fact that the Orange were crushed 66-53 at Littlejohn Coliseum could easily be dismissed as just one of those days. It may not have been, That 4-0 league opening could have just as easily been 1-3, with victories over Virginia Tech by two, Georgia Tech by one, and Wake Forest in OT, and the truth is that Jim Boeheim’s team is extremely shallow right now. That lack of depth may be one of the more important factors for any NCAA contender from an ATS standpoint, so be prepared to adjust quickly.
With DaJuan Coleman unable to play, Syracuse began the campaign short on depth, and when Chris McCullough was lost for the season in last week’s win over Florida State, the ice became perilously thin. Take a look at the minutes the starting five has had to play in the two games since then –
Player WF Clemson
Rakeem Christmas 45 40
Michael Gbinije 42 40
Tyler Roberson 44 36
Kaleb Joseph 23 33
Trevor Cooney 45 38
It was one thing to have the starters go almost the entire way in that nail-biter in the Carrier Dome vs. Wake Forest, but another matter entirely when they were swimming upstream at Clemson, trailing by as many as 22, and never getting within a dozen in the second half. Yet Boeheim wouldn’t even give Christmas a single possession off.
This can not help but take a toll. First is the physical impact of key cogs having to play just about every minute of every game, which can even wear down a guy like Christmas, who may be the nation’s best #5. But there is also that aspect of knowing that they do not have fouls to give, which can limit their effectiveness both on defense, and on the boards. Wake Forest and Clemson carved that 2-3 zone up to the tune of 1.13 PP100, with 32 assists on 53 made baskets. And naturally there is the issue of bench production – Syracuse reserves contributed just three points and three rebounds in those two games combined, compared to 40 and 22 for the opposition.
The Orange should be good enough to beat Boston College at home in a couple of days, which will mean 14-5 overall and 4-1 in the ACC. But that could help to set the value stage for what could be a major crash as the degree of difficulty picks up. And at some point Boeheim may look back at the Clemson defeat and wish that he had given his starters at least a little bit of a breather, in a game that they had no chance to win. It also might have helped to prep some of the reserves for minutes that they are going to need. But even with a timeout at 0:27, when Clemson pulled all starters off the floor, Boeheim would not sit his guys for those few ticks.
Here is the key - if the reserves are not good enough to play in games, then they likely are not helping all that much in practice either. As such, while many of their upcoming opponents will be getting better as the season progresses, the Orange could be standing still or perhaps even regressing.
Item: Utah/Arizona, and the McKale Massacre
What looked like a Pac 12 showdown between Utah and Arizona on Saturday turned out not to be, with the Wildcats rolling 69-51. And the way that it happened means time for a serious post mortem breakdown.
The Utes had been doing just about everything right heading into the game – excellent team basketball on both ends of the court, and in opening 4-0 SU and ATS in Pac 12 play the four wins came by 96 points, exceeding the market expectations by 53. There did not appear to be a weakness. So if you were told that they were going to knock down 9-19 from 3-point range at Arizona, while the Wildcats connected on just 1-7, the next thought would be that the outright upset took place. But it didn’t. Even with that one-sided shooting from long range the game was not close, and it was all about the manhandling in the paint.
Arizona won the boards by a staggering 40-19. Offensive rebounds were 17-4. The latter led to an 18-3 advantage in second-chance points, a big part of the game breaking open. Five different Wildcats had more rebounds than any Utah player, and both Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (31 minutes) and Stanley Johnson (28 minutes) had more offensive rebounds than the entire Utah team. It was not just the force to grab rebounds, but also a defensive intimidation around the rim - the Utes made only 7-22 of their two-point shot attempts, while allowing 25-48.
The follow-up brings plenty of food for thought. Is this a loss that a team that had been winning too easily actually needs, to remind them of how many rungs are still above them on the ladder? Or did it come in a way that badly bruises their psyche? Larry Krystowiak has been through this before, and has already set the stage - "It was a bit of an eye-opener for us. We'll have our guys' full attention Monday when we talk about playing more physical. To reach the goals we want to reach, we'll have to take on a little different persona. [Arizona] is the the definition of a physical team."
Fortunately the next game is a home encounter vs. Washington State, and the Cougars do not pack much of a punch around the basket. It will offer an opportunity to see if Utah can reach back for some needed fight, which can set the tone for the remainder of the season. Do they come away from Saturday understanding what they need to correct, or instead could they feel a bit defeated, knowing the gap that exists between where they are, and the upper echelon?