Point Blank – December 18
Bowling for Dollar$, and setting your sights on the sites…When a Defense can’t be defended...The Markets are hearing the Thunder, but has there been any Lightning yet?...
OK, so you have a lot of work to do ahead as the deep bowl card provides ample opportunities to find edges. So per usual, Power Ratings, Stats and Tactical Matchups come front-and-center, and there will be some back-and-forth on these pages throughout the cycle. But let’s take a little time before all of that to focus on something that can be meaningful, yet often neglected – the impact that the venues themselves can have on the proceedings. The focus will be on settings that are worth a full point or more to one particular team, with the more +’s the stronger the edge. So working in schedule order:
New Orleans Bowl (UL-Lafayette ++)
This is becoming the Ragin’ Cajuns Invitational, with Mark Hudspeth capping each of his first three seasons as the UL-Lafayette HC with a win in this bowl (3-0 ATS, +14.5 vs. the expectations). I had wondered if perhaps it might be a letdown to be making this trip again, but there are no indications of that from the comments of the players or the coaches, especially since New Orleans is better than the other bowl venues for Sun Belt teams. So they will be comfortable in the surroundings and have plenty of fan support. Meanwhile Nevada will not bring many for a trip that does not wrap around Christmas or New Year’s weekends, making it a difficult logistical fit. And as part of the venue consider the kickoff time, which will be 8 AM on the body clocks of the Wolfpack players.
Las Vegas Bowl (Utah ++)
There was an expectation that the Utes would travel well, to a venue at which they have had good fan support in the past when playing UNLV. The question was whether the fact that the Utah basketball team also plays UNLV at the MGM Grand that very evening (8:30 tipoff time, leaving nearly five full hours after the football should end), could turn it into a double-header that would increase the crowd counts. That appears to be the case – the Utah ticket allotments for both games were snapped up quickly. It is a short drive for many of their fans, and cheap flights from Salt Lake City to Vegas. No such luck for Colorado State fans, and as always the inconvenience of having to first travel 70 miles from Fort Collins to the Denver airport making for a trip few will take.
Camellia Bowl at Montgomery (South Alabama +)
At first I did not expect much here, with the South Alabama campus 155 miles from Montgomery, but subsequent reports show that it may well matter, with a small stadium (25,000) being filled with Jaguar backers. That becomes significant because Bowling Green will bring an extremely small following (trying to fly from Toledo to Montgomery is one of those “You can’t get there from here” situations).
Boca Raton Bowl (Marshall ++)
Don’t sleep on this one. Back in mid-October there was a feature column on what the trip to Miami to face Florida International meant to Marshall earlier this season – “A Visitor’s Homecoming”. The Thundering Herd rolled to a 45-13 win and cover, and now a depth chart that shows nine starters and 11 reserves from Florida, mostly from the southern part of the state, can bring some of that same focus. This is the backyard of QB Rakeem Cato, the best at the position in program history, and will bring a lot of friends and family to the stadium. Northern Illinois will not come close to matching that, with this an awkward trip for fans to make two nights before Christmas.
Poinsettia Bowl at San Diego (San Diego State +)
Just a quickie to point out that you should not over-rate San Diego State for playing at home in this one. This will be the fourth appearance for the Navy program in this game over the last nine seasons, and because there is a major naval presence in the area, the Midshipmen will have significant fan support. The count may be fewer than for the Aztecs, but they may be just as loud.
St. Petersburg Bowl (UCF +)
Just a small here advantage here. Right around 100 miles from the Central Florida campus to Tropicana Field, which will help to create at least a little noise inside of a domed stadium, but the day after Christmas is not the optimal time for fans to come out of pocket for expenses in a draw that does not generate much excitement.
San Francisco Bowl (Stanford ++)
The trip to Levi’s Stadium is almost within bicycling distance from the Stanford campus, and part of the reason why the Cardinal got this invitation was to bring a needed local draw to this inaugural affair. It is a long way for Maryland fans to travel, especially since not many would have left the night before New Year’s open for a bowl trip.
Fiesta Bowl at Glendale (Arizona +)
Roughly 120 miles from the Arizona campus, and there are plenty of Wildcat alums that live in the area. But soften that just a bit because Boise has brought good fan support to bowls in the past, and in a dome stadium the Bronco fans will be heard (there are non-stops from Boise to Phoenix on Southwest Airlines that only take two hours).
Cotton Bowl at Arlington (Baylor +)
About 100 miles from Waco to the “The House That Jerry Built”, and with this being such a big game for the program the Bears will bring a lot of fans – especially to a venue that has so many available seats. Michigan State can sell out an allotment, and still have the much quieter following.
About Last Night…
In pondering the right times to step in against what I believe is an over-rated Atlanta team, with an average roster benefitting from a weak early schedule, the nights when the Hawks do step up brings a spotlight. And what that spotlight shone brightly on last night was a defensive performance that was truly historic. But not by Atlanta. This was from Cleveland, and it was likely the worst single-game showing there will be this season. Which is rather ominous.
Focusing on the Cavalier defense is not a new topic in this column - it began with “What if the Cavs can’t guard?” a month ago, which focused on not only the poor defensive statistics to that point, but the fact that this group simply may not be designed for success on that end of the court. At the time they were #25 in defensive efficiency, marred by a #29 at defending two-point attempts. So where are they 24 games in? How about #23 in defensive efficiency, and #27 at defending two’s. That only represents the slightest of improvements. Wednesday may have taken away any good will on that front.
The Hawks only needed 76 FG attempts and 16 at the FT line to produce 127 points. That is mind-numbing, especially since it was without starting PG Jeff Teague. They made 68.8 percent of their two-point attempts, 16-28 beyond the arc, and had 36 assists vs. only nine turnovers. Yes, there was the randomness of a night that Shelvin Mack will never have again. A player that entered the game at 9-44 from 3-point range went 6-6. But before discounting the fluky aspect of that spin of a roulette wheel, consider that on shots not taken by Mack, Atlanta still would have had 103 points on 70 FG attempts and 12 FT tries. It was enough for HC David Blatt to offer an apology afterwards – “I really don’t have too much to say. That was embarrassing how we played. I apologize to all the good fans that came out here as they always do.” But it is Blatt that also remains a major question – while the physical makeup of the team does not call for great defense, there is that issue of his defensive acumen to get the best out of them anyway.
And now for the eye test…
You can’t find a fault in Golden State’s 22-3 opening. The schedule has been a tick above average; 13 of the wins came in double figures; the defense rates #1 in the NBA (although not so far ahead of Houston that a few more games from Dwight Howard might have flip-flopped the top two spots); the offense checks in a #6; and the Warriors are positive in the rebounding counts. Which makes the current trading on that showdown with Oklahoma City tonight an interesting take on market perceptions. The current price is telling us that OKC is already on par with a team that has been the league’s best to this point.
Here is the issue – while the Thunder are indeed 7-1 SU since Kevin Durant returned, which would seemingly indicate that they have quickly found their rhythm, you have to take it with several grains of salt. The eight teams that they faced are a collective 75-125, for one thing, but also consider how short-handed several of them were. The Cavaliers were without LeBron James (somewhat of a gap between him and Matthew Dellavedova), the Kings did not have DeMarcus Cousins, there was no Goran Dragic for the Suns, etc. After losing at New Orleans on Durant’s first night back, the last four road games have come at Philadelphia, Detroit, Minnesota and Sacramento (sans Cousins). That is about as easy as it can be shuffled up. Those settings provided wins, but how much was accomplished in terms of developing a chemistry for when a game is close against a difficult opponent? As such, there is a prime opportunity to not only watch what should be a terrific matchup tonight, but to also get a better gauge on how far along OKC really is, after a recent stretch that may not have told us a hell of a lot.
This Week at Point Blank –
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – The Weekend Starting Five
Tuesday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #15
Wednesday – The State of NFL QB Play, 2014 (You gotta throw the damn ball)…Some NBA Offense, “In the Sights”…