Point Blank – December 17
The state of NFL QB Play, 2014 (You gotta throw the damn ball)…Some NBA Offense “In the Sights”…
Discussions of NFL QBs are currently all over the Sports Mediaverse, for a litany of reasons. Many of them directly pertain to this week’s pointspreads, which was discussed in this column yesterday (link at the bottom of the page), and some go to long-term issues, with high-profile personalities like Johnny Manziel and Robert Griffin struggling under the spotlights. What is meaningful is that when the league is studied as it is unfolding in 2014, it becomes increasingly clear that playing the position effectively is much more about the abilities above the shoulder, than below them. And that is worth making a discussion point for the serious handicapper.
It was easy to understand the attractions to Manziel, Griffin, Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton at draft time, because of their tremendous physical skills. And while Russell Wilson was not quite placed in that class coming out of college, he still went in the third round at #75. Wasn’t the sport indeed shifting in a direction in which mobility was going to be a key at the QB position? Yet except for Wilson, that group is struggling overall, and even Wilson is having his difficulties in the category that sets the stage. Those mobile guys? They sure as hell get sacked a lot.
2014 Sack Percentage/NFL Standing:
Robert Griffin 15.7 (NQ)
Colin Kaepernick 10.3 (1)
Johnny Manziel 10.0 (NQ)
Russell Wilson 8.8 (5)
Cam Newton 8.2 (9)
NFL Average 6.3
The “NQ” for Manziel and Griffin is because they currently do not have enough pass attempts to qualify. But you could see where they would fit in if they did. The players that bring the most athletic ability to the position are actually getting sacked at a rate that puts them at or near the wrong end of that food chain. So what about the other end of the spectrum?
2014 Sack Percentage/NFL Standing:
Peyton Manning 2.6 (1)
Nick Foles 2.8 (2)
Tom Brady 2.9 (3)
Joe Flacco 3.3 (4)
They would actually rate #35 down through #32 if compared to the first table, but it is an easier read this way. What do those four have in common? They can’t run a lick, for starters, especially compared to the first grouping. But now for the key – they get the ball out. They make reads, find their receivers, and the ball comes out of their hands. That is largely what is missing from the younger and more mobile QBs.
Consider what this means when it becomes “Net Yards Per Pass”, factoring sacks into the equation, instead of merely “Yards Per Pass” -
YPP Net YPP
Manning 8.0 (5) 7.6 (2)
Flacco 7.4 (13) 6.9 (10)
Brady 7.2 (17) 6.9 (13)
Foles 7.0 (22) 6.5 (18)
Wilson 7.3 (16) 6.1 (22)
Newton 7.0 (28) 5.8 (30)
Kaepernick 7.1 (21) 5.8 (32)
Griffin 7.6 (NQ) 6.3 (NQ)
Manziel 5.3 (NQ) 4.8 (NQ)
NFL Average 7.2 6.4
See the difference the sack ratios make in terms of understanding the truer merits of the passing game? Outside of Manziel, who has not had many attempts, the other four “mobile” QBs all give away more than 50 percent more per net attempt than the league average gap (.8) between gross and net yards per pass, because of how often the ball does not leave their hands.
Much of this is about experience and savvy, but there is actually one caveat in defense of the more mobile guys – they are also more likely to try to run around in the pocket and try to make a play, instead of throwing the ball away. When they break the pocket for positive yardage, it no longer gets recorded in the category of being a "pass". But even that does not happen all that often; what they got away with in college, they can not at this level.
The college experiences are the birth of the problem – those spread passing offenses (Manziel/Griffin), or read option packages (Kaepernick/Newton), do not prepare a QB well for the way the NFL game is played. In college their mobility is an asset in terms of spreading out a defense, and keeping plays going longer in order to create openings. But in the NFL gaps close, instead of open, as a play progresses. The size and speed on that side of the ball covers a lot of ground, so the best offensive opportunities are found in the first designs of a play, before the defense gets a chance to react. The current elite of the NFL QBs are masters at that; the high sack counts for the supposedly nimble guys show their lack of experience at making those reads, and getting the ball out of their hands.
The question is whether or not reading defenses is a skill that can be taught at this level, if the student does not already possess an undergraduate degree in the science (which some like Andrew Luck certainly have). That answer may not be a favorable one. The problem is not just adding layers of knowledge, but also of breaking bad habits that have already been formed. Make Kaepernick Exhibit A in that regard (Griffin gets a slight excuse because of injury issues). He does not show an iota of getting any better; if anything there has been a steady regression –
Kaepernick NetYPP/Passer Rating:
2012 7.3 98.3
2013 6.5 91.6
2014 5.8 84.9
Why would he get so much worse, instead of even maintain that first level? Part of that is his failure to develop, but the rest is also that opposing defenses are now familiar with his abilities, making him easier to prepare for. Take that a step further, and accept that one of the reasons why these mobile QBs look so explosive in college is because their opponents have a difficult time in preparing. That advantage gets lost at this level.
Make this a part of your thinking, so that you can much more easily sort through the frenzies in the Sports Mediaverse. Do not be tantalized by the occasional brilliant physical play of a young mobile QB, and believe in that as an upside, which is a trap that many fall into – even NFL talent evaluators. Modern defenses are simply not susceptible to that in the long run. These days, it really is a Thinking Man’s game.
In the Sights…
On Monday there was a take about the issues the Dallas Mavericks (#707) have been having when stepping up in class this season – “The Mavericks are not built for the post-season (nor some parts of the regular-season either)”, with a link to that at the bottom of this page. But as they maintain that 18-8 pace there are spots at the other end of the competition spectrum in which they can be backed with confidence, and tonight is the kind of setting you can look for. A team loaded with experience and savvy is going to handle travel much better than others, and the hardest team to guard in the league will be particularly difficult for opponents that lack experience against them. Which takes us to the Motor City.
Dallas is positioned to play well. The Mavs had Sunday and Monday off, and got what was little more than a nice workout against the Knicks in Madison Square Garden last night, with the starters only needing to play 53 percent of the game minutes. After this they have Thursday and Friday off, so for once a team can approach the 5-20 Pistons seriously, instead of looking past them.
Meanwhile Detroit is vulnerable for this setting. It has proven to be awkward for a team to transition back after a west coast swing; this time the Pistons have only had a single day off after getting whipped 113-91 against the Clippers on Monday. And it is not as though the crowd support will help to lift their sagging energy level – at 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS this has been the NBA’s weakest home “advantage”, falling a collective 92.5 points below the market projections in those games (a significant 7.1 per outing). Sporting the league’s lowest attendance count, it should not come as a surprise. Nor should it be a surprise if a defense that rates #21 gets exploited by the offensive options and execution level that Dallas brings (now at a rather amazing 2.7 more points per 100 possessions than any other team).
This Week at Point Blank –
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – The Weekend Starting Five
Tuesday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #15