Point Blank – December 4
Rambling or Wreck, how good is Tech?...Fatigue makes cowards of a Defense…
Florida State has been a fascinating team to watch this season, with these Seminoles being far below their 2013 predecessors, and walking a tight rope that has nearly had them off balance enough to fall vs. Oklahoma State, Clemson, Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami, Boston College and Florida. But while there is not the depth of talent and experience to blow teams away, there is just enough moxie to make the big plays when the games are on the line. Perhaps. Because what sounds logical, and may indeed be true, still has some variables in the equation.
Although the perceptions across the Sports Mediaverse has been that it was Jameis Winston and FSU stepping up to make those plays, but what if instead the focus goes to the fact that none of those five opponents are going to be playing in major bowls (thouch Clemson, if fully healthy, truly is another matter entirely)? What if the biggest part of the equation is that those teams simply were not good enough to close the deal? That has already been a topic once here - “Florida State/Miami ‘Marketology’” (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1087418.aspx), and now it is time to revisit that notion. Just how good is Georgia Tech?
The Yellow Jackets enter the ACC Championship game on one of the stronger ATS runs you will ever find against late-season lines, going 5-0 and topping the market expectations by 123.5 points in the process (117.5 in regulation). But first we have to ponder just how good that run was, and then to question how much the loss of WR DeAndre Smelter matters in this week’s equation.
When Tech went to Pittsburgh back on October 25, there was no hint of what was to come. The Yellow Jackets were 5-2, having had four games decided by six points or less, and were off of back-to-back losses to Duke and North Carolina that had them on the edge of ACC elimination. But then they were on the right side of one of the most unique game openings in NCAA history, when the Panthers lost four fumbles on their first five snaps. It was 28-0 like lightning, and Tech coasted home. A pair of solid wins over Virginia and N. C. State followed that, which made the final conference game at home vs. Clemson a true showdown. But while that 28-6 win and scoreboard domination goes into the record books as being a brilliant outing, it has to be taken with a grain of salt.
After being out for several games because of injury, Tiger QB Deshaun Watson returned for that game, and there should be no need to link back to the three times he has been a topic on these pages – he is a terrific talent. And Watson had the offense rolling early, taking a 3-0 lead and being on the door step of making it either 6-0 or 10-0 late in the first quarter. But Watson was injured again, and the first pass thrown by replacement Cole Stoudt was intercepted and returned 85 yards for a TD. It was a monumental swing, and a 62-yard Pick Six off of Stoudt later in the game helped to break it open.
A bye week was next, then over to Athens to face Georgia. And once against the Yellow Jackets were on the ropes early. Georgia rolled 75 yards on 10 plays to score on the opening possession, and was ready to go up 14-0 later in the first, when Nick Chubb fumbled on a second-and-goal at the two. Still ahead 7-0 there was another chance for the Dawgs to double the margin, but on a first-down play at the 14, Sony Michel broke through the Tech defense, only to lose the ball at the one. Back-to-back fumbles within a step or two of the end zone turned around a game that could have broken wide open, and enabled the Yellow Jackets to stay in the hunt. As so often happens in such settings, the momentum turned.
So yes, there has been some excellent football in this stretch, but also a lot of right place/right time bounces – not only did Tech win the turnover battle in all five of those wins, but some of them were monster turnovers (they scored on both fumble and interception returns against N. C. State). Which raises the question as to whether or not they are another team that is good enough to hang around vs. Florida State, but perhaps not good enough to win the game.
Especially without Smelter. He has simply been terrific, catching 35 passes at an explosive 20.4 per reception, with seven of them going for scores. And it was only his second full season of college football, after a shoulder injury ended his baseball aspirations. His 6-3/225 frame has also made him an effective blocker on the edges, an essential tool in Paul Johnson’s option game. But Smelter won’t see the field again this season because of a torn ACL. The problem for Paul Johnson is that Smelter accounted for 44.1 percent of all of the team’s passing yards, and while Darren Waller is another big target (6-5/232), with 16 catches at 15.9, no other Tech WR has more than five catches. Without Smelter’s ability to stretch a field, a key element is lost, one that allows the Seminole safeties to play a step or two closer to the line of scrimmage.
Georgia Tech will come out loose and confident, and will play with abandon in a chance at a prize that appeared to be on a shelf beyond reach a month ago. But it also looks like the Yellow Jackets could play awfully well and still lose by six or seven points, the unfortunate issue underdog backers have to face in this price range, especially with Seminole DC Charles Kelly a key factor - he was an assistant at Tech from 2006-12, including Johnson's first five seasons, and in that 2012 campaign served as Yellow Jacket DC. He will have a pretty good feel about those option packages as the game plan gets put together.
In the Sights…
“Fatigue makes cowards of us all”. That is one of many memorable quotes from Vince Lombardi, who was using it to particularly note what the impact of being tired means on a football field. And that could be a key starting point to break down tonight’s Cowboys/Bears clash at Soldier Field.
Both the Chicago and Dallas defenses were focus points on this page heading into their Thanksgiving games last week because of the factor that fatigue could play – they were each on a short week after facing 74 plays the previous Sunday. As one might expect, both units struggled mightily. Chicago allowed 34 points, 28 first downs and 474 yards to a Detroit offense that had not scored a TD in either of the two previous games, with the Lions snapping the ball 70 times. The Cowboy numbers were close to being identical – 33 points, 26 first downs and 464 yards, with the Philadelphia offense on the field for 75 plays. So as we look ahead to a night in Chicago in which the weather will be relatively pleasant for December, do those fatigue notions come front-and-center, with the third game in 12 days an issue for teams off of those big workloads?
As part of the NFL weekly recap on Tuesday (link at the bottom of the page), there was a take on how the Dallas defense has performed when efficiency aspects are used as the keys, instead of total points and total yards, with those latter counts being impacted by how well the Cowboy offense has controlled the ball to keep that defense off of the field. The harsh reality is that they are not been much better at all than what was an atrocious unit in 2013. There simply is a lack of playmakers coming from that huddle, and to slow down Chicago you have to make plays and take Jay Cutler out of his rhythm – there are too many big-time weapons otherwise.
Meanwhile no team allocated more resources in the off-season to shore up a defense than the Bears, $34 million in guaranteed salary brought on board Jared Allen, Lamarr Houston and Willie Young, and they traded away #2 and #3 draft picks for Ego Ferguson and Will Sutton. So far, it has not been money well-spent. Let’s run the same comparison between 2013 and the current season that was used to highlight the Cowboy issues on Monday -
2013 2014
Yards per Play 6.2 (32) 6.0 (28)
Yards per Rush 5.3 (32) 4.2 (18)
Yards per Pass 7.7 (25) 8.1 (30)
Sack % 5.8 (8) 6.4 (13)
There indeed has been a marked improvement against the run, but the pass defense has fallen off significantly, making the overall yards-per-play allowance not much of a boost at all. And when they have had to step up against elite offenses it has been simply disastrous – those three games against the Packers and Patriots saw 144 points hit the scoreboard, with a stunning 101 allowed in the first half.
Both offenses bring the weapons to attack soft and worn down defenses that will not take them out of their preferred game plans, so this one may require a team to score into the 30’s to walk away the winner.
This Week at Point Blank:
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #13
(/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1107502.aspx)
Tuesday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #12
(/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1108094.aspx)
Wednesday - On why Baylor didn't win the head-to-head vs. TCU, Part II...Whistled for "Traveling", before tipoff...The "D" was not OK(C)...Swing time, in Madison...
(/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1108956.aspx)