Point Blank – November 20
What if Nebraska just isn’t “tough” enough…Those Maryland/Rutgers transitions…The Cav's really can't guard...Some Thursday value in Morgantown…
The Monday column this week (link at the bottom of this page) went into detail on that historic rushing effort by Melvin Gordon against Nebraska, while noting that it was not necessarily all about Gordon, but the fact that the Cornhuskers have simply had no defensive counter for the Wisconsin ground game since joining the Big 10. That naturally raised a question about the game plan, but as the Big 10 season enters the final furlong perhaps another one as well – is there also now a genuine concern about the physical toughness of that defense?
That absolutely matters because of what is ahead, games against Minnesota and Iowa teams that have their scoreboard outcomes revolving mostly by how well they play in the trenches. And given what happened in 2013 vs. those two, the one season since joining the Big 10 that the Cornhuskers avoided Wisconsin, there is plenty of food for thought. Nebraska was favored in each of those games, -10 at Minnesota and -3 at home vs. Iowa, for a combined -12.5. And how did those eight quarters play out?
Nebraska Iowa/Minnesota
Scoreboard 40 72
Rushing Yards 235 460
Bo Pelini’s team was nearly doubled, both on the scoreboard and in the rushing column, despite being favored each time. The Gophers and Hawkeyes had such command of the proceedings that they combined for 99 runs, vs. only 34 passes. That is not the Nebraska reputation of course, which had been built on physical play since the days of Bob Devaney. But until joining the Big 10, those were decades of playing teams located south of the Cornhusker state. Now the battles in Big 10 country are played a little differently, especially in November, which begs the question as to whether there is a matchup issue that may be under-valued by the marketplace the next two weeks.
There is absolutely a matter of youth up front being an issue – there are no seniors, and only three juniors, in the two-deep of the DL, and the only senior starting at LB is the under-sized Zaire Anderson (5-11/220). This unit brings speed and athleticism, but not necessarily leverage in those line of scrimmage scrums. This time around the Big 10 schedule did not fully show it, because they drew the likes of Illinois, Northwestern, Rutgers and Purdue. But in the two step-ups they could not run, or stop it, in losing to Michigan State and Wisconsin.
The Nebraska line against Minnesota this week is based on scoreboards and reputation, much of that earned. But there is that matchup aspect inside of the bigger picture that is worth some focus as you put your handicap together for that game. It is more of the “November” theme that was discussed here last week (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1086523.aspx), and leads to an additional question – if the Cornhuskers are having an issue with this particular aspect of life in the Big 10, what about those other newcomers?
Those Maryland/Rutgers transitions
Like Nebraska, these two programs are also having to take on a more physical style of play than they had been accustomed to, and had recruiting players for, in their previous conference alignments. But in these instances it is even more extreme, particularly for Rutgers. The Terrapins and Scarlet Knights do get the break of facing each other in the season finale, when both defenses will be pretty worn down, but this week they head to the state of Michigan for games that will be a test of their depth and toughness in the defensive trenches. Let’s take a look at their defensive transitions, in year #1 of Big 10 play, looking at how they have stood up against the run, and also the market projections:
Conference Rushing Yards Allowed, Per Game/Per Attempt:
2013 2014 Net Big 10 ATS
Maryland 166.7 / 3.8 197.7 / 4.4 -46
Rutgers 94.5 / 3.1 238.3 / 5.8 -29
Both have had a significant increase, with the Rutgers step up in class at the line of scrimmage a lot more pronounced. The Scarlet Knights were clearly not ready for it. In their only two Big 10 road games they allowed 98 points at Ohio State and Nebraska, and were little more than blocking sleds up front – 640 rushing yards at 8.0 per attempt (you will see 626 at 7.5 elsewhere, but the better tables remove QB kneel-downs and a bad punt snap).
The Terrapins have fared a little better, but in their step-up games against Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan State allowed at least 240 yards, and at least 5.0 per rush, each time. Their problem has been more of finding a way to run it against Big 10 defensive fronts, with only 80.7 per game overland, with that count getting lower by the week – the last three games have produced a grand total of 83 rushing yards.
The issues that both of these teams have in the trenches could be prime factors this week, in the last road game after a more physical schedule that they are accustomed to playing.
About Last Night...
As a follow-up to yesterday's main column take on the Cleveland defensive issues, do not gloss over the 92 points scored by San Antonio and believe that they were OK. They weren't. It was the game pace that kept the score down, not the quality of the defense. The Spurs shot 47.3 percent and had 26 assists in their 35 made field goals, with the ball moving so well that six different players had three assists or more. The Cavaliers are now allowing an ominous 107.6 points per 100 possessions; you can have fun comparing that to 104.8 LY, before LeBron James, Kevin Love, Shawn Marion and David Blatt came on board. They went 33-49.
In the Sights…
While many of our “November” talking points have been about fading defenses, that should not be the case when Kansas State and West Virginia square off tonight. Both teams are off of their second byes of the season, which makes the 58.5’s that are available for a blustery night in Morgantown worth a look, especially with that Total being a bit artificial to begin with.
Few defenses have improved as much as the Mountaineer stop unit this season, with Tony Gibson developing some complexity in those 3-3-5 packages, and having former Penn State DC Tom Bradley bringing his savvy on board as well. Yet when you look at the scoreboards of those home Big 12 showdowns, the 41-27 win over Baylor and 31-30 loss to TCU, they appear to have been wide-open games. They weren’t. The 68 points vs. Baylor came despite the two teams averaging just 4.7 yards per play, with the Bears held to 82 fewer yards than in any other game. The 61 vs. TCU came with the offenses generating 4.9 per play, and the Horned Frogs were also held to a season low, 38 fewer yards than any other game. There were a lot of unique game circumstances that had the scoreboards more active than they should have been in each of those outings. Now some time off to prepare for the Kansas State offense not only means coming in fresh, but also a chance to dial up a few more defensive wrinkles.
Bill Snyder and his Wildcats won’t be looking for a frenetic pace on the road, with their Big 12 games averaging 136 snaps. A wind chill in the teens means long pass plays and long FGs are likely to be only minor parts of the proceedings, which leaves value at this price point.
This week at Point Blank:
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #12
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Tuesday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #11
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Wednesday - What if the Cav’s can’t guard…Prognosticating the Platoon…Tough to score, in Spokane…
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