Point Blank – November 4
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #9
The NFL Week that Was, and some key issues that you can incorporate into your own thought processes, to gain an edge on the pointspread battles ahead.
Item: The 49ers lose their way, again
The Setting: San Francisco 10 St. Louis 3. 49ers ball at their own 49-yard line, second-and-one. Last play before the 2:00 warning.
Logical thought process: Jim Harbaugh and his team have the Rams right where they want them. Use the ground game to convert for a first down into St. Louis territory, get either a FG or TD before the half, and force a team that had been out-scored 65-10 over the second half of the previous three games to have to play from behind, with Austin Davis at QB.
The Play Call: A Pass. The Result: Colin Kapernick gets sacked for the fifth time in the half, losing a fumble that the Rams recovered at the San Francisco 36-yard line. Two plays later the St. Louis offense reached the end zone for what would be the only time all day, but the Rams went to the locker room at halftime tied 10-10. It was a major shift both in the psychology of the teams, and the football science of the second half game plans.
And so it went for the 49ers. Again. This is not the first time their almost incomprehensible offensive play calling has been a topic on this page. It started vs. Chicago, when they did not pound away on the ground to protect a big lead against a soft defense, and a pair of Kaepernick INTs in the second half helped to turn a 20-7 advantage into a defeat. There was also a 14-6 lead at Arizona at halftime, which should have put a major burden on the inexperienced Drew Stanton to have to attack from behind. But mysteriously RBs Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde were only given the ball nine times in that game, out of 63 snaps. The Cardinals were able to rally because the 49er play-calling made it easier for them.
This is not the San Francisco offense trailing in games and being forced to throw the ball. It has been the continued decisions to get away from what they do best when they do not have to. St. Louis entered Sunday allowing 144.7 yards per game overland, at 4.7 per carry. Opponents were averaging 31 rush attempts per game. So despite not trailing until there was 5:25 remaining, meaning a game in which the 49ers could have powered Gore and Hyde into that soft defensive front, they opted not to do it. The sequence at the end of the half had a monster impact on the outcome, and all told the RBs were only handed the ball on 16 of 63 snaps.
In relying on Kaepernick, they are not playing to a strength. His struggles to make decisions are outweighing his mobility in the pocket, leading to 14 sacks the past two games, and on Sunday the Rams had as many sacks in the first half (six), than they had all season coming in. Yet even with a chance to still win the game, a first-and-goal at the two-yard line with 0:42 remaining, plus one time out in pocket, the three plays did not include a handoff to Gore. The first two were pass attempts, and the sequence ended with the Kaepernick fumble, the time out never used.
So what is the explanation? Gore offered a verbal shrug – “That’s not my role to decide. Whatever the coach calls, that’s what we run.” OC Greg Roman has been silent. And the best that came from Jim Harbaugh was “Rather than pick through each thing publicly, I’d rather talk to our team about that. … As you watch the tape, you see where we all have fingerprints on this from an offensive perspective. It wasn’t just one guy. Wasn’t just one player, wasn’t just one coach. So that’s what I saw.”
In terms of game-day strategy, the 49ers have dialed up some of the worst football of any team in the NFL. As such, they are 4-4 and three full games behind Arizona in the NFC West, and it will be difficult ground to make up – you can not afford to lose home games to the likes of the Bears and Rams, and still make the playoffs. The goal for the handicapper this week is to read between the lines as they head to New Orleans – will that ugly defeat be enough to convince them to get back to basics? Or is this a sign that Harbaugh indeed has a disconnect with his team, and may have trips to Zingerman’s becoming a part of his life again next autumn?
Item: The Eagles will miss DeMeco Ryans more than Nick Foles
The Eagles played a terrific game at Houston on Sunday. To go -3 in turnovers, including giving up a Pick-Six, and still win by 10 points, is tremendous. They whipped the Texans by 15 first downs and 183 yards, and while some of that may have been a surprise when Mark Sanchez got most of the time at QB after the injury to Nick Foles, it should not have been. First, Foles is no better than an average NFL QB, and as noted here before, he will never match the season that he had in 2013. Those brilliant numbers were more about the Brian Kelly system than his abilities. Second, this is a good scheme for Sanchez, who looked extremely comfortable back in August. Yes, all pre-season games are taken with a grain of salt, and in the case of Philadelphia games a handful of it, since most opponents will not game plan for the Eagle tactics. But Sanchez was still 25-31-281 in those games, with two TD passes and no INTs, and absolutely passed the eye test.
But while there should not be a major adjustment from Foles to Sanchez, losing LB DeMeco Ryans is tougher. And the best place to start is right from Kelly’s own words – “He’s the true leader. We talk about it all the time. He’s Mufasa (from the “Lion King”). He’s our guy. When a warrior goes down, you pick up his shield and go play in honor of him, and I think that’s what our guys did.”
Yet there is still some hope, and the silver lining was actually the injury that cost fellow ILB Mychal Kendricks four games earlier this season. That forced Casey Matthews and Emmanuel Acho to step in and get some playing time, so at least there is some experience to fall back on. The problem will be cerebral, not physical, and that is what bears watching come Monday night. This, from DE Connor Barwin, tells the tale – “He (Ryan) knows the defense like the back of his hand. He gets us in the right calls. He owns everything he does. He never loses it. He never breaks down. If he misses a play he lets it go. If somebody else misses a play, he helps him move forward.”
In other words, Ryans does some things that can’t be easily replaced. But as for Foles, do not be surprised of the Eagle offense does not skip a beat.
Item: The Giants will really miss Prince Amukamara
How bad was the New York pass defense on Monday night? Think of it this way – after Andrew Luck had shredded them for 354 yards and four TDs, he came away disappointed with his performance - "I don't think I played very well. There were some plays that I messed up. I missed some throws." Just imagine if he had actually played well? Welcome to a long second half of the season for the Giants, with Amukamara unlikely to play again after suffering a torn biceps.
Manning had a 125.6 Passer Rating in the second half, having his way with Zack Bowman, Jayron Hosley and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, the latter only playing sparingly through his own injury. With CBs Walter Thurmond and Trumaine McBride on IR it is a perilously thin group, and one that will require some patching before they head to Seattle. But just how much can get done on a short week? Last Tuesday in this space there was a take on the issues the Ravens were going to have replacing Jimmy Smith for a couple of weeks, and part of why they were so overwhelmed by Ben Roethlisberger and the Steeler passing game is that they could not find a quality free agent available to fill in. They went with what they had, and it was not nearly enough. Now the Giants may have to do the same thing, and even if they can pick someone up a short practice week before that road trip will not be conducive to a learning curve for their defensive schemes.
Item: Have the Chargers been figured out?
San Diego was shockingly out-played at Miami, so much so that Mike McCoy waived a white flag in the third quarter, pulling Philip Rivers and most of the key starters from the game, and only choosing to throw one pass in the final period. It has now been a 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS slide for a team that opened 4-1 and 5-0 ATS, leading to the natural question – just what has gone wrong, for a team that led the NFL in scoring margin after five weeks into the season?
Part of the answer may come in looking at a common denominator. Those last four games have come against three division opponents, and also a Dolphins team that faced them LY. That meant second and third looks at the McCoy playbook (the fourth, for the Broncos), and the offense has been reduced to ordinary. Could that be the proper label for the personnel at hand?
Until this recent slide, the Charger success on offense was not based on being explosive, but rather being precise in their execution. They were #3 on the Football Outsiders charts prior to Sunday despite a middle-of-the road average of 5.6 yards per play. They played methodically (#31 in seconds per play, with only Dallas slower), and worked their way into favorable down and distance settings. But over those last four games the Chargers have been up against opponents that are fully aware of that, and have been squatting on first down plays. Miami held them to two yards or less on 12 of 15 first downs when Rivers was in the game, taking them completely out of their comfort zone for the second/third-down plays.
Can they adjust? Of course, with McCoy and Rivers running the show they can get back to the drawing board, and after a bye week there get home games vs. the Raiders and Rams that are ideal to get back on track. But while adjustments are needed, it may also be important to acknowledge that they were also up against a team that played at a special level on Sunday…
Item: It wasn’t just about the Chargers
The father of Miami head coach Joe Philbin died last week, and Philbin spent a couple of days away from the team. The players said all of the right things, including Mike Pouncey promising that they would “go out and play our best football game of the year”. But that is the kind of comment that is seen and heard often from such situations, and as such it is best to take them with a grain of salt. Over time these settings lose as often as they win, largely because emotion is not necessarily a good substitute for proper game-week preparation, and in truth once games begin many of those factors simply go away. What is overlooked is that often it is the week after that matters, and in this case it bears a closer look.
The Dolphins indeed played with purpose and passion, and simply dominated the Chargers. In the aftermath they naturally put the focus on Philbin, with the following from RT Ja’Wuan James perhaps the best example - "It was definitely emotional. He's a strong guy - I can say that - to go through that situation and come back and coach a football game. He remained positive. He never changed or wavered. When your leader can do that, your respect level goes up even more."
It may not be how well they played on Sunday that is the story – it may be the way something like this can bring them closer together as a team, with a greater belief in what they are doing. And that could matter again this week, when Philbin leaves the team for two days to attend the funeral. It is quite a contrast to where they were just about a calendar year ago, with the Richie Incognito/Jonathan Martin saga creating a circus atmosphere. But in moving to 5-3 they have recorded every one of their victories by 13 points or more, gaining in confidence on both sides of the ball. With a favorable schedule the rest of the way (yes, there are trips to Denver and New England, but the will be favored in five of the other six games), this might not be a bad time to look for any bargains in the Futures trading. They may lack the experience to compete well in January, but they are favored right now to still be playing after New Year’s.
Item: Another look at the Dallas defense (here come more issues)
Last week there was a Tuesday table showing that the Cowboy defense had not made any real strides at all this season across some key categories, with their saving grace being an offense that was running more effectively, which was keeping them off of the field. That is why it was almost comical to hear Henry Melton’s comments after Sunday’s loss to Arizona - "We were out there a lot. I don't know the play count, it seemed like a lot. We're not the only defense that plays a lot of snaps in a game, but once you're out there you got to get it done." Yet they were only out there for 65 plays vs. the Cardinals, the last two of which were kneel-downs by Carson Palmer. Contrast that to 2013, when it was 67.8 plays per game, although Melton’s memory can be excused, since he spent that season in a Chicago uniform LY.
The bottom line is that the defense has truly not made any strides, and now it may get worse. The Cowboys saw both DT Tyrone Crawford and LB Rolando McClain go out with injuries during the fourth quarter of Sunday’s loss, and this is a unit that is extremely thin, especially at LB, where Sean Lee and Justin Durant have already been lost for the season. It is not the ideal scenario for a team playing for the 10th straight week, and having to travel to London is also particularly inconvenient – while both Crawford and McClain will make the trip, it not only makes their rehab more difficult, but losing a practice day is not the ideal way to prepare other players to help take over their roles. And while you might think that it is a blessing to have drawn Jacksonville for this game, the task of defending the Jaguars is getting a little tougher these days because…
Item: Denard Robinson looks like he is for real
The struggles of Jacksonville rookie QB Blake Bortles should not be unexpected – the NFL is a big step when you did not play in a power conference at the college level, and it is not easy breaking in with a bad team that brings little support. He threw his 13th INT of the season at Cincinnati on Sunday, this one in the end zone on a first-down play with 4:06 remaining, when either a FG or a TD would have cut the deficit to a single score. Of course you do not take that risk on first down in that setting. But Bortles and the Jaguars still have to come away with a healthy sense of optimism, because a major piece to the rebuilding process is emerging right behind him in the backfield – Denard Robinson.
Robinson entered the NFL as a wild card, with no denial of his abilities, but a question as to whether someone that played QB in college had a natural position at this level. That is in the process of being answered. Over the last three games he has rushed for 329 yards and a pair of TDs at 5.8 per attempt, and he is showing that he is not shy about running between the tackles to get tough yards. While they have Toby Gerhart for that particular role, it is something that Robinson must do to become a complete RB, and force the defense to respect that part of his game, which in turn can set things up for Bortles.
With Robinson’s emergence, the Jaguars become an intriguing item down the stretch. They went 4-4 SU over the second half of the season LY, and although opening with 10 straight games was not ideal given their lack of depth, after facing Dallas in London they finally get a bye week that can help the defense return to health. It would not be a shock to see them play above their full-season numbers in that closing stretch, and the shrewd handicapper should be ready to adjust quickly.
Item: How bad is the Oakland ground game?
Like Bortles, David Carr is finding out how difficult it can be for a rookie QB with a bad team. In theory, he had something better than Robinson to help balance the offense, with veterans Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden in the backfield. The problem is that those two former playmakers simply look old right now, and on Sunday were conspicuously ineffective. So lost amidst the competitive scoreboard at Seattle is a problem that will shape the remainder of their 2014 campaign.
Through eight defeats, big plays have been hard to come by – in 124 combined attempts that veteran duo has not had a run of longer than 17 yards. But Sunday at Seattle brought a new low – those two carried the ball 15 times, and managed just 18 yards. Carr was forced to put the ball in the air on 42 of 60 snaps, and may need to get accustomed to that for a ground attack that currently sports the lowest yards per game since the 1946 Detroit Lions.
It is going to be a long ride to finish the season with an interim coaching staff, with the current 14-game losing streak not having many winnable games on the remaining schedule. If they can not find a way to slow the game down for Carr with some effective running, which can also get their defense off the field a bit, this may go from ugly to hideous, as opposing pass rushes feel free to tee off.
Vegas (Monday’s with the Review Journal)…
The development of Asian restaurants along the Spring Mountain corridor over the past two decades has been a tremendous boost to the off-Strip dining scene, a fabulous assortment across those various cuisines. And it is working well for the proprietors – pay close attention as you drive Spring Mountain from Valley View to Rainbow, and you will find precious few empty storefronts. But long before there was even a hint of that development was Rincon de Buenos Aires (5300 Spring Mountain), specializing in the cuisine of Argentina, and a part of the regular rotation when it comes to spreading out the NFL box scores for those Monday recap sessions.
The menu is extensive and meat-centric, as one would expect, and there is an integrity both in the ingredients used, and their execution, that you will appreciate The same butcher, Hugo Patti, from Cordoba, Argentina, has been there since they opened, and at the age of 64 he knows his way around cuts of meat at a level that precious few ever get to. The trips to Rincon are also scheduled around when it is time to stock up the pantry, with a deli/market area filled with regional specialties (great selection, and prices, on yerba mate).
On the shortlist of the best sandwiches in Las Vegas is their “Lomito Completo”, which will handle both the biggest of appetites, and also a sophisticated palate. It starts with tender filet mignon, and then ham, a fried egg, provolone, lettuce, tomato and a little mayo on a wide baguette. The combination works, especially with some of their terrific chimichurri sauce drizzled on, which you will have also generously used over the fries. After the first bite you realize how much these folks care about what they put on a plate, and the bang for the buck will rival just about any place in Las Vegas.