Point Blank – October 30
The Committee having spoken…
On Monday there was a take here on the general absurdity of the Playoff committee not only meeting this early in the season, but of also making their rankings public. But there is a rating$ grab in play, and so be it. Now the task at hand it to break down just what it will mean for the various teams, and search for opportunities that we can take advantage of on the betting boards. So time to get to work.
Just Win, Baby
Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn, Mississippi, Oregon, Alabama, Georgia, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah
Style points are a non-issue for these teams; it is only about winning their games, and nothing more. If anything, the weeks that they do step away from their showdown games could have the coaches even backing off a little, to save energy for the bigger tasks ahead. Mississippi State falls into that setting at home vs. Vanderbilt on November 22; Florida State at home vs. Virginia on November 8 and then Boston College on November 22; Oregon at home vs. Colorado on November 22. The other SEC teams on this list do not have those schedule pockets, since Ole Miss/Presbyterian, Auburn/Samford, Alabama/Western Carolina and Georgia/Charleston Southern will not carry high enough betting limits for serious consideration.
OK, you may ask, what is #10 Georgia doing on the list, and those last three Pac 12 teams? It is about what the value of winning the remaining games would mean. Conquer Auburn on November 15, and beat whichever team enters the SEC championship game from the West, and that comfortably gets the Bulldogs into the top four. Meanwhile if any of those Pac 12 teams sweep out, it will also likely mean having beaten Oregon in the conference championship game. A 12-1 record, and a win over the Ducks (it would be the second for Arizona, which already has the first, and the second for Utah, which hosts Oregon next week), gets you in. They are long-shots, but they are not in need of style points.
November 22 could be a fascinating Saturday, with the potential for three of the top four teams (assuming the Auburn/Mississippi loser drops a few notches) all needing to win, but none necessarily needing a margin, which will be a challenge for the oddsmakers.
Needing a Little Help (and some style points)
TCU, Michigan State, Kansas State
Now here is where it gets a little tricky. There are several games in which the SEC teams above this trio cross each other: Mississippi State vs. Alabama and Mississippi; Auburn vs. Mississippi, Georgia and Alabama. How will they unfold? Mississippi State could go 12-0 into the SEC title game, lose to Georgia, and still make the Playoff. But what if they all rough each other up a little? A one-loss SEC champion is an automatic. But should Georgia lose to Auburn, then win the SEC title game, fog sets in. So these three teams not only need to win, but also need it to be pretty, if possible. TCU hosts Kansas State in what will be an elimination game on November 8, and then has a soft close-out (at Kansas, at Texas, home vs. Iowa State). The Horned Frogs could be extremely margin-conscious in those affairs, should they win their next two games to set them up.
Kansas State has a much more difficult close-out. Even if the Wildcats win at TCU, there are tough trips to West Virginia and Baylor. The only opportunities for style points are this week vs. Oklahoma State, and then vs. Kansas on November 29. Michigan State will be favored in each game the rest of the way, albeit a short margin vs. Ohio State, but the Spartans should not be inclined to take their foot off the pedal, something that Mark Dantonio got practice at vs. Michigan last Saturday.
Needing a Lot of Help (and a lot of style points)
Notre Dame, Baylor, Nebraska, Ohio State, Duke
These teams not only need to win, but possibly win big, while hoping that enough teams in front of them lose to open up some room.
Notre Dame’s placement was a bit of a surprise, sitting behind the teams from the Big 12, and Michigan State from the Big 10. It means that the Fighting Irish face a difficult leap-frog to get above the TCU/Kansas State winner, and must have Michigan State fall down somewhere, in addition to some scrambled eggs in the SEC that would limit that conference to just one team. There are road trips to Arizona State and Southern Cal that will help the resume, but style points will be available vs. Navy, Northwestern and possibly Louisville (we will learn much about the Cardinal moxie tonight), and they may well be needed.
Baylor’s path likely requires a Kansas State win over TCU, so that the Bears can then make their case vs. the Wildcats at home the first Saturday in December. Outside of a trip to Norman they have a host of style points there for the taking, at home vs. Kansas and Oklahoma State, and at Lubbock vs. Texas Tech. Nebraska can gain a little cred by winning at Wisconsin in a couple of weeks, but those home games vs. Purdue and Minnesota are settings to go for the jugular. Ohio State must obviously beat Michigan State and have a host of other things happen, but should the Buckeyes beat the Spartans, they can fire away for the full 60 minutes over the remaining three regular-season games.
And then there is Duke. The schedule has been soft, which explains the #24 slot, but if the Blue Devils win out, and then beat Florida State in the ACC championship game, could that be enough? One seldom thinks of the Blue Devils in terms of style points, but when they host Wake Forest on November 29, that just might come into play.
In the Sights…
There was a prelude to Notre Dame/Navy in Monday’s column (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1072206.aspx), dealing not only with the potential “style points” element that could begin with the first installment of those committee ratings (which has indeed happened), but also how that particular aspect of play could go right into an exploitable weakness – the fact that the Midshipmen have been wearing down noticeably in the fourth quarter of games. But there is also a deeper thread running in this matchup, which begs for more scrutiny.
The Fighting Irish handled Navy and those option packages easily in the first two encounters under Brian Kelly, wins of 56-14 as -24 in 2011, and 50-10 as -14.5 in 2012. But then came that struggle to escape by only 38-14 in South Bend LY, laying -16.5. Did the defense lose its way? Not really – it was a defense playing without key NT Louis Nix, and one that also saw his replacement Kona Schwenke, along with DE Sheldon Day, and LBs Ishaq Williams and Ben Councell, all leave the game because of injuries. It may still have been a defense that had the proper game plan, but simply did not have enough healthy puzzle pieces.
Now the game plan gets an enhanced focus, with two full preparation weeks. And there is an added motivation from films of that close call last November – the players have made it pretty clear since that game that the cut blocks used by the Navy offense played a part in those injuries. Some were vocal enough that Kelly had to step in an issue an ultimatum – “I don’t want to hear about it. It’s part of the game, and they’re legal, and you’ve got to get off the ball and go play. I told our guys this is a no-cry zone this week. … Stop being crybabies, and go play the game. I don’t want to hear about cut blocks.”
As such, expect a high level of energy and focus from Notre Dame. Not only was the #10 spot in the ratings this week a slap in the face, but the Fighting Irish appear to be bringing a chip on their shoulders against this specific opponent. Given the issues the Midshipmen defense will have as the evening wears on, the door may be open for some late-game domination.
About Last Night…
Not only was Rajon Rondo healthy enough to play for the Celtics in their opener, but he actually appeared to be in prime form (13 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists in 29:45). That offered an opportunity to look at the flow of a Brad Stevens offense that there was little chance to see LY, and the ball movement was terrific – how often does an NBA team reach 121 without any player getting to 20? They had already broken 100 before the third quarter ended. A 41-66 on two-point attempts, and 28 assists vs. only 12 turnovers, calls for closer examination through their early season cycle, especially given the low level of expectation from the marketplace. The talent does not offer a lot of upside, but the chemistry and tactics could make the sum better than the parts.